ABC: 'The Goldbergs' Now A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 22nd, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


ARKive image GES086050 - Brown bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.48
Betrayal :oops: 0.50
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.62
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.68
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.75
Nashville :| :| :| 0.83
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Back In The Game :) :) :) :) 0.91
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Super Fun Night :) :) :) :) 1.21
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Ratings for The Goldbergs keep falling. Last week it was ABC's second worst rated sitcom, ahead only of the doomed Trophy Wife, well under the ratings for Back In The Game, which had its ratings tick up a tenth to over 90% of ABC's weekly scripted ratings average. Because of that, the Cancellation Bear is making a double prediction move. The Goldbergs has moved down to a "toss up" for renewal and cancellation and Back In The Game has moved up to "likely to be renewed". Why the difference when The Goldbergs Index is higher? The Index is an average, when ratings change quickly it takes some time to "catch up".

Once Upon A Time In Wonderland's prediction has also been moved down, to "certain to be canceled". How long it stays on the schedule is anybody's guess, except the bear's, he doesn't bother with that.

Super Fun Night ratings keep dropping too. Were the one to anticipate future ratings he'd have downgraded it already. Since he doesn't, he'll wait and see the future ratings.

As always, early in the season, predictions change rapidly. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Tom

    I’m wondering if Syndication might work to Wonderland’s benefit.

    It would be easy to throw it in with the Once Upon a Time Syndication package and that might buy it a full season. I don’t think ABC wants to cancel it outright because it risks damaging the overall OUaT brand.

    I think ABC gives it a full season but moves it around the schedule a little, maybe tries it out in the Sunday at 9pm slot.

  • Bee

    ugh, i hope super fun night doesn’t kill nashville :( i just want that show to survive. and it’s clearly got an audience. it does so well in the DVR numbers. it’s too good to get cancelled, man.

  • Sean

    The thursday time slot of Once: Wonderland was a almost certain death centence from the beginning. I understand why ABC is trying it, but the series should be moved to the time slot after the original Once or to Once’s time slot when it is on hiatus, for Wonderland to have a minimal chance of recovery.

  • Ray

    Once Upon a Time in Wonderland would do much worse than Revenge is Sundays at 9. At least Revenge has okay numbers for DVR playblack. Once Upon a Time doesn’t even chart for that, so it kind of shows there’s a lack of interest in it. If it was pulling in decent DVR numbers, then maybe ABC would consider renewing it and trying it in a different slot. And I don’t think that’s how syndication works, I’m not sure if you can bundle two shows together like that.

  • Chris

    When was the last time ABC successfully launched a scripted show in that 8PM Thursday slot?

  • jupiter3765

    i believe that it was back in 2009

  • David Howell

    It was Ugly Betty, but can’t remember which season.

  • Midnight

    The original plan was to burn off OUAT in Wonderland against the Winter Olympics while OUAT was on hiatus. I’m treating this like a mini-series: one season and done. I don’t think anybody expected it to be renewed for additional seasons unless it did extraordinarily (~90% of OUAT’s average). The main purpose here was to generate buzz and exposure for OUAT while ideally shoring up the timeslot as spackle.

  • Dan

    I actually think The Goldbergs has the best shot at a full season and Back in the Game is most likely to be cancelled. You need to look at it from this standpoint. Back in the Game has horrible retention out of The Middle, and when it aired after Toy Story of Terror which got a 3.1 it got a 1.9 and then Modern Family jumped to a 4.1. How does that justify Back in the Game for likely to be renewed when it is clearly a weak link? The Goldbergs and Trophy Wife have more of a difficult timeslot then Back in the Game (against The Voice and have some comedy competition) ABC could give full seasons to both and move them to Wed to see if they do better since BITG and SFN arent exactly hits.

    ABC is very difficult to read in terms of comedies, they only have Mixology and Suburgatory for midseason so they have plenty of options.

    @Chris and Jupiter3765 – That show was FlashForward but when it returned numbers kept dropping and dropping.

    Wonderland wont get a full season due to the fact that it already has 13 episodes set (6 for fall and 7 for spring) Though the latter order may not end up being produced. Like Betrayal, Sleepy Hollow and Hostages, the episode order is fixed.

  • Duarte

    Sundays
    8pm – The Bachelor
    10pm – Revenge

    Mondays
    8pm – Dancing With the Stars
    10pm – NEW DRAMA

    Tuesdays
    8pm – Agents of SHIELD
    9pm – NEW DRAMA
    10pm – Castle

    Wednesdays
    8pm- The Middle
    8:30pm- NEW COMEDY
    9pm- Modern Family
    9:30pm- NEW COMEDY
    10pm- NEW DRAMA

    Thursdays
    8pm- Once Upon a Time
    9pm- Greys’ Anatomy
    10pm- Scandal

    Fridays
    8pm- Last Man Standing
    8:30pm- Suburgatory
    9pm- Shark Tank
    10pm- Nashville (or new better show from 2013-2014 midseason)

    It’s for 2014-2015 . What do you think ?

  • Dan

    @David Howell – 2006-2007 for Ugly Betty but numbers were dropping by its third season and when it was moved to Fridays thats when ABC’s problems started.

    I expect Grey’s Anatomy, Castle, Revenge, OUAT, Scandal, Nashville and Agents of Shield to all return next season assuming every other drama is a flop.

  • sandy245

    The Goldbergs would be a better show if it would stay consistent with it’s 1980′s timeline.
    In the first episode, it shows it to be 1985 in a video stamp, yet in a following episode it’s clearly 1986 with a Top Gun poster on a bedroom wall. Then a later episode has ‘Alf’ references which now places it in 1987…then in promos for tonight’s new episode is a reference to the hit film ‘Say Anything’ which now makes it 1989!
    These jumps through the decade is distracting to the viewer. They should pick a year and stay within the boundaries of that year.

  • Wright

    AoS and OUAT!!!!

  • Nope

    love seeing CASTLE as certain renewal

  • gerry

    @ duarte

    i like your idea for sunday! some form of reality needs to go in that sunday slot and that lead in could actually help revenge and in turn revamp that 10 pm slot. me likey.

    nashville will be back if for no other reason that abc can’t get their comedies to succeed. they should just cut an hour of comedies.

    but in saying that, i somehow want trophy wife to succeed. its FUNNY you guys! but i know it’s likely just wishful thinking on my part. it should have had the post MF slot. SFN makes no sense there and will self destruct on another night.

  • grey

    Yay, green smiley faces for “Castle” although, that may change when all the numbers for this week are calculated for next week index.

  • Rebecca

    I agree with Sandy about the timeline in The Goldbergs, but I still love the show. In the r/c index it should trade places with BitG….I see that one as more likely to be cancelled than The Goldbergs. My other ABC shows seem safe except for Trophy Wife, The Neighbors, and I guess LMS – but since it’s a Friday show it might be safer than if it was on another night.

  • Greg

    My ABC schedule for 2014-2015:

    MONDAYS

    8pm – Dancing with the Stars
    10pm – Castle

    TUESDAYS

    8pm – Dancing with the Stars: Results
    9pm – Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
    10pm – NEW DRAMA

    WEDNESDAYS

    8pm – The Middle
    8:30pm – Back in the Game
    9pm – Modern Family
    9:30pm – NEW COMEDY
    10pm – Nashville

    THURSDAYS

    8pm – Revenge
    9pm – Scandal
    10pm – NEW DRAMA

    FRIDAYS

    8pm – Last Man Standing
    8:30pm – Suburgatory
    9pm – Shark Tank
    10pm – 20/20

    SUNDAYS

    8pm – Once Upon a Time
    9pm – Grey’s Anatomy
    10pm – NEW DRAMA

    I’d have to see how Back in the Game rates when facing American Idol, but for now I think it’s the most likely to get a renewal from all of ABC’s new comedies.

  • FRED

    @Sandy245

    If the show were to just stay with 1985 it would be too limiting. Other shows used to be loose with the timelines as well. I don’t see a problem with generalizing the 80′s. The show just needs more genuine laughs like The MIDDLE. Now that is a great family comedy.

    I’m actually enjoying OUAT Wonderland. Its really entertaining. I’m a sucker for fantasy shows. Probably why LOST was my favorite show of all time.

  • Dan

    My guess is with ABC if they want to keep Goldbergs and Trophy Wife they will move both series to Wednesdays and if they give SFN more eps, they will probably pair it with Mixology. When and if ABC does this is a mystery.

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