ABC: 'The Goldbergs' Now A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 22nd, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


ARKive image GES086050 - Brown bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.48
Betrayal :oops: 0.50
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.62
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.68
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.75
Nashville :| :| :| 0.83
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Back In The Game :) :) :) :) 0.91
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Super Fun Night :) :) :) :) 1.21
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Ratings for The Goldbergs keep falling. Last week it was ABC's second worst rated sitcom, ahead only of the doomed Trophy Wife, well under the ratings for Back In The Game, which had its ratings tick up a tenth to over 90% of ABC's weekly scripted ratings average. Because of that, the Cancellation Bear is making a double prediction move. The Goldbergs has moved down to a "toss up" for renewal and cancellation and Back In The Game has moved up to "likely to be renewed". Why the difference when The Goldbergs Index is higher? The Index is an average, when ratings change quickly it takes some time to "catch up".

Once Upon A Time In Wonderland's prediction has also been moved down, to "certain to be canceled". How long it stays on the schedule is anybody's guess, except the bear's, he doesn't bother with that.

Super Fun Night ratings keep dropping too. Were the one to anticipate future ratings he'd have downgraded it already. Since he doesn't, he'll wait and see the future ratings.

As always, early in the season, predictions change rapidly. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Jazz

    ABC has a lot of pink faces.

  • Dan S

    BITG is 1 & done while I think Goldbergs will stick around longer. Hopefully it’ll at some point get moved to Wed but will have to leave it to the ABC gods to decide that matter.

  • Thad

    I know its spot in the index isn’t stellar, but why is a Friday show with 0.62 in its third season (Last Man Standing) not “likely to be renewed”? Seems like syndication is heavily favored in R/C (for good reason), even with the write-up last week about how second season renewals almost always guarantee third season renewals. Just curious.

  • Duarte

    @gerry thank you, it’s excatly what I think

    @greg , move SHIELD and Scandal is not a good idea, put Grey’ in that slot is the same to kill a good serie in ratings and Sundays 10pm is a death slot, so you just can´t premiere nothing there.

  • Dan

    @Thad – I think because Last Man Standing isn’t produced by ABC studios so under that theory ABC wouldn’t have to bring it back for a fourth season. (Similar to Til Death being owned by Sony in 2008)

    However Last Man Standing is doing well for fridays so I cant see any situation where it doesnt get a fourth season. It would be the first time a non CBS multi cam show got a fourth season since Til Death.

    @Dan S – Agreed Back in the Game is doing worse with a better lead in and less competition. Goldbergs has NCIS LA and Voice not to mention New Girl. ABC will probably move it to Wednesdays.

  • Scandalicious

    It makes me so sad that ABC doomed Trophy Wife by airing on Tuesdays at 9:30. It has so much potential. I would gladly see all of the other new comedies go before Trophy Wife but TW has the worst ratings. I am still praying for a midseason miracle and ABC will move it behind Modern Family to save it!

    I am so glad that Scandal has continued to be a great success this year. I just wish that Once Upon a Time and Revenge could match it. Nashville also has all the elements to become a big show it just isn’t happening. I hope all four of these shows get renewed.

    I also think that it may be time to move Shark Tank away from Fridays. It is actually a really strong show. Maybe putting it in the Thursday death slot would actually end the curse. ABC should also really play with the idea of putting Revenge at 10pm next season. I think it is more of a 10pm shows and then they could use OUAT to launch something new. ABC has a whole lot of potential on their schedule they just haven’t placed everything in the right position yet.

  • C.S.Strowbridge

    I still think Nashville will stick around, partially because of CD sales, but also because ABC will have lost so much before Nashville becomes an issue.

  • Alecia

    @Dan

    The Goldbergs may have more competition than Back in the Game but it was sampled way higher getting 3.0. The fact that it has now slipped to a 1.6 clearly shows that people aren’t enjoying it thus not tuning in week after week. ABC would be really foolish to give this show a back order much less renew it.

  • Dan

    @Alecia – Yeah but thats when Agents of Shield premiered to a 4.4, all 3 shows have gone down in viewers. Back in the Game is the weak link if on average The Middle gets a 2.5, and then BITG cant even break a 2.0.

    Quality wise The Goldbergs and Trophy Wife are better than BITG and SFN and should have been on Wednesdays, then when they have bcome established then they could move away.

    I would have paired Super Fun Night and Mixology on Tuesdays at 9 in the fall, aired Goldbergs and Trophy Wife on Wed and held Back in the Game and Suburgatory until midseason. Both Wed comedies are losing steam from their lead ins.

  • Jazz

    @Scandalicious

    Revenge, OUAT and Nashville should and could be bigger shows but they all have something that is lacking. I never watched those shows right away. They always sit on the DVR. I almost always watch Scandal close to when it airs. That show has its issues but it’s super crazy and keeps you watching. The other shows are low murmurs compared to it. And they don’t have a lot of likable rootable characters. They aren’t fun. At least not as fun as when I first started watching them.

  • Ronak

    People moving Castle to launch a new show on Mondays at 10…you do realise that DWTS does really poorly in the demo these days? I’m not sure it is that good a lead in to launch something, unless it is a show designed to skew old.

    Best off keeping Castle at 10pm on Mondays where it does a rock-steady job. ABC have plenty of other issues on their plates to deal with.

  • noreaster75

    At this point, Nashville deserves to be in the “more likely to be cancelled” category, rather than “toss up”

  • Alecia

    @Dan Regardless of Shield and trophy wife going down in viewers, the point still stand that it got a 3.1 and was strongly sampled. Three weeks later and it’s down to 1.6 would suggest that almost half of those in the demo didn’t enjoy it enough to tune back in. Moving it behind the middle would give it an even weaker lead in so I’m not sure why you think that it would perform better than BITG. And as for the quality of it, I can’t comment as I’ve never seen an episode.

  • Duarte

    @Ronak, premiere something Tuesdays 10pm is worst than premiere something Mondays 10pm , think about it, so Castle should be moved

  • Raul

    ABC NEXT FALL
    Mondays
    8l7c Dancing with the Stars
    10l9c NEW DRAMA (Something good that can get a benefit from DWTS)

    Tuesdays (Strong night for men)
    8l7c Once Upon A Time (New night)
    9l8c Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (New time)
    10l9c Castle (New night) (Can benefit from S.H.I.E.L.D’s 18-49 rating)

    Wednesdays
    8l7c The Middle
    8:30l7:30c NEW COMEDY
    9l8c Modern Family
    9:30l8:30c Trophy Wife(fall) Suburgatory(spring) (If renewed) or NEW COMEDY
    10l9c Nashville

    Thursdays
    8l7c NEW DRAMA or Returning Freshmen Show
    9l8c Grey’s Anatomy
    10l9c NEW DRAMA or Returning Freshmen Show

    Fridays
    8l7c Last Man Standing
    8:30l7:30 NEW COMEDY or Returning Comedy Show
    9l8c Shark Tank
    10l9c (Some kind of Shark Tank Spin-Off) (20/20 Returns January)

    Saturdays (fall)
    8l7c College Football

    Saturday’s (spring)
    8l7c Repeats of Shark Tank
    9l8c Shark Tank Spin-Off (New night and time)
    10l9c Repeats of Hit Shows (New and old hits such as Lost and Desperate Housewives)

    Sundays (Strong night for women)
    7l6c America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8l7c NEW DRAMA
    9l8c Revenge
    10l9c Scandal (New night)

    Let me know what you guys think.

  • Duarte

    @Raul , Scandal should not be moved and Nashville is in a slot than will be better to premiere a new show

  • Ronak

    @Duarte

    Yes but then you risk two timeslots…a possibility that Castle fails on Tuesdays, and whatever you premiere on Mondays also collapses. Like I said, DWTS is not a great lead in any more, so why take that risk?

  • Duarte

    @Ronak DWTS is not a strong show anymore . But it can realease better than other deads slot . An Castle already have a strong fan base which will follow the show everywhere it goes

  • Shepherd

    Absolutely no arguments from me. Too bad for SFN and Revenge the season doesn’t end today! ;-)

  • Ronak

    @Duarte

    No guarantee the fanbase of Castle will follow it to a new night. Given the issues ABC already has with dramas, it is in my opinion an unnecessary risk.

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