ABC: 'The Goldbergs' Now A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 22nd, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


ARKive image GES086050 - Brown bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.48
Betrayal :oops: 0.50
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.62
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.68
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.75
Nashville :| :| :| 0.83
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Back In The Game :) :) :) :) 0.91
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Super Fun Night :) :) :) :) 1.21
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Ratings for The Goldbergs keep falling. Last week it was ABC's second worst rated sitcom, ahead only of the doomed Trophy Wife, well under the ratings for Back In The Game, which had its ratings tick up a tenth to over 90% of ABC's weekly scripted ratings average. Because of that, the Cancellation Bear is making a double prediction move. The Goldbergs has moved down to a "toss up" for renewal and cancellation and Back In The Game has moved up to "likely to be renewed". Why the difference when The Goldbergs Index is higher? The Index is an average, when ratings change quickly it takes some time to "catch up".

Once Upon A Time In Wonderland's prediction has also been moved down, to "certain to be canceled". How long it stays on the schedule is anybody's guess, except the bear's, he doesn't bother with that.

Super Fun Night ratings keep dropping too. Were the one to anticipate future ratings he'd have downgraded it already. Since he doesn't, he'll wait and see the future ratings.

As always, early in the season, predictions change rapidly. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Kim Olson

    It kills me that OUATiW’s ratings are miserable. I am in LOVE with that show. This one’s going to be the first show in a long time that it HURTS to lose.

  • Duarte

    @Ronak, so you prefer (like ABC) have a night where every shows are new and then they all flop, except one.

  • Kim Olson

    ABC needs to cancel Betrayl and then have this Sunday schedule.

    7 – Once Upon a Time
    8 – Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
    9 – Revenge

  • Ronak

    If they’re good shows, they won’t flop.

  • Duarte

    @Kim Olson , to flop OUATIW even more ?

  • Kim Olson

    @Duarte, why would that flop it?

  • Jagger Dagger

    The Goldbergs isn’t the best show out there, but it’s not bad.
    Better than most of the new comedies this year. If Back in the Game gets cancelled, ABC should think about trying The Goldbergs in that spot. It might be a nice fit.

  • Dan

    @Alecia – Viewers almost always go down, I’m saying that a difficult timeslot could make the difference between a well rated show and a low rated one. For example GOldbergs could do better in a timeslot after The Middle, where Back in the Game could not. Goldbergs got a 1.6 out of Shields 2.7 with worse competition. If Toy Story last week got a 3.1 and BITG couldnt at least get a 2.0, its done. However its feasible that Goldbergs could considering that Wed at 8:30 is a better timeslot t air a show in.

    Its not a matter of how a show premiered because Shield, Goldbergs and Trophy Wife all premiered well, Same with Dads/Brooklyn Nine-Nine/New Girl and Mindy Project but The Voice drawing a 4.0, makes other shows lower rated by comparison.

    The point is that a night that looks like this 3.1-1.9-4.0-2.5 in terms of last Wed on ABC, shows that the show that aired second is the weak link as most people turned off there TV or changed the channel for a half hour after wathcing Toy Story of Terror before turning it back on to watch Modern Family so its not the timeslot.

    However when shows get a 2.7-1.6-1.3 and the night is Tuesday, a very competitive night, then its the timeslot. ABC’s comedies are on par with FOX’s vs. last year when both Happy Endings and Apartment 23 were losing (and coming in fourth) to both NBC’s Go On and New Normal as well as FOX’s New Girl & Mindy Project and down from NCIS LA.

    @Noreaster75 – Nahh Nashville is fine at 50/50 I personally think it will be renewed. Considering ABC’s only renewed drama for this season may be SHIELD, and the rest of their shows have flopped hard (Wonderland, Lucky 7, Betrayal) Nashville might actually have a good shot at returning.

  • Duarte

    @Kim Olson

    is a very difficult slot, the show isn´t strong … I understood you like it, but it can get a second season.

  • Dan

    @Jagger Dagger – It is a nice fit, The Middle & The Goldbergs are very compatible, while Trophy Wife is essentially Modern Family meets Big Love and would work out of Modern Family.

    Back in the Game doesn’t seem like it would fit anywhere, and Super Fun Night is losing a big chunk of its lead in. Its like when ABC tried to put Apartment 23 post Modern Family, the show will flop on its own.

  • Melanie

    I guess they’ll keep Wonderland on Thursdays a few more weeks — if they have something better in the wings to air for sweeps (at this rate Scandel repeats might get higher ratings)they will. Then I would hope they’ll air the rest of the episodes over OUAT’s hiatus on Sundays.

  • Duarte

    I think they will air ALL episodes from OAUTIW on Thursdays

  • Dan

    @Melanie – Well ABC could just burn through whatever they have produced of Wonderland and just not produce the remaining 7 eps. That seems like the best solution rather than return the series in the spring.

  • FRED

    @Rebecca,

    I tend to have the same tastes in shows as you. I think I will try and watch the GOLDBERGS again. I’m currently watching SUPER FUN NIGHT. Not great but does have laughs

  • Matt

    If ABC wants to save Revenge, then they NEED to shift it to 10:00 and move Greys back to Sunday at 9 to lead into it. Greys would most likely manage in the 2.5-3.0 on Sundays at 9 and that would probably help boost revenge back up into the 2.0 area. Also, if ABC wants to save their Tuesday comedies, then they should move them to Wednesdays and move Back in the Game to Fridays after LMS, where it would make more sense. Suburgatory and Mixology could move to Tuesdays at 9&9:30 after SHIELD. Mind Games could be placed on Tuesdays at 10:00. And Nashville could be moved to Thursdays at 10:00 if Scandal were shifted to 9:00. Scandal and Nashville would make a great match and scandal could very well help it move maybe into the 2.0 area as well. Shark Tank could be helped next year to launch a new drama, such as the new Phillip Marlowe pilot they recently bought (cop dramedy; from creators of CASTLE).

  • Alecia

    @ Dan

    A show not being sampled enough could be a timeslot issue. A show that had a high sample and then lost almost half it’s demo three weeks later isn’t. Half of the people who saw the premiere didn’t enjoy it enough to stick around. I doubt those people would come back to it just because it’s on a different night.

  • Jazz

    Don’t Grey’s and Scandal pair well? I don’t watch Grey’s but both seem like amped up dramas. Nashville is much lower key, but not as low key as Revenge.

  • Alecia

    WTH happen to my comment?

  • Tim

    Shark Tank needs to move to Thursday at 8

    Revenge to Friday at 9

    OUATIW behind OUAT to make a storybook-themed block

  • Rebecca

    @Fred
    Yeah, give it a try and see what you think. I’ve seen the pilot for The Goldbergs maybe three times now, since I re-watched it with hubby (after previewing it alone before it aired, online) and then again a few nights ago so my visiting mom could watch it on hulu (and she liked it). I didn’t like the second episode as much (whatever the one with the roller skating rink was…second or third) but then enjoyed the next episode more. Patton Oswald is the narrator (youngest kid grown up), and the oldest boy reminds me a little of Johnny Galecki from TBBT (and Roseanne) – he overacts a bit but he’s fun. Good rapport with the dad. The one who plays the mom…she was the blonde cop in Reno 911 and wasn’t likeable in Rules of Engagement, but I love her in this. So funny. They had another actor from Reno 911 on, too, working with the dad in the furniture store. I see The Goldbergs as a cross between The Wonder Years (but 1980s’ style) and The Middle….and you know I love The Middle. I like Super Fun Night, too, but I wish Rebel Wilson had kept her accent for the show.

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