ABC: 'The Goldbergs' Now A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 22nd, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


ARKive image GES086050 - Brown bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.48
Betrayal :oops: 0.50
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.62
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.68
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.75
Nashville :| :| :| 0.83
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Back In The Game :) :) :) :) 0.91
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Super Fun Night :) :) :) :) 1.21
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Ratings for The Goldbergs keep falling. Last week it was ABC's second worst rated sitcom, ahead only of the doomed Trophy Wife, well under the ratings for Back In The Game, which had its ratings tick up a tenth to over 90% of ABC's weekly scripted ratings average. Because of that, the Cancellation Bear is making a double prediction move. The Goldbergs has moved down to a "toss up" for renewal and cancellation and Back In The Game has moved up to "likely to be renewed". Why the difference when The Goldbergs Index is higher? The Index is an average, when ratings change quickly it takes some time to "catch up".

Once Upon A Time In Wonderland's prediction has also been moved down, to "certain to be canceled". How long it stays on the schedule is anybody's guess, except the bear's, he doesn't bother with that.

Super Fun Night ratings keep dropping too. Were the one to anticipate future ratings he'd have downgraded it already. Since he doesn't, he'll wait and see the future ratings.

As always, early in the season, predictions change rapidly. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Dan S

    @Alecia, since you haven’t watched Goldbergs you honestly don’t know why people are so passionate about it. Scheduling does make a difference & if more viewers see it regularly I guarantee it’ll be a bonafide hit. Check it out & see for yourself.

  • FRED

    @Rebecca,

    I enjoyed Rules of Engagement also! But I liked Less Than Perfect even more.Sara Rue is amazing. Super Fun Night has potential to be hilarious, but for now its just mildly funny. Good enough for me at this time.

    Thanks, I will try and watch Goldbergs tonight ON DEMAND. Will let you know my opinion soon.

  • Joey

    I think OUAT in wonderland is 10x better than OUAT. The acting is so much better, the special effects, the story, EVERYTHING. It’s too bad it’s probably ending and not OUAT. I can’t stand henry he’s such a horrible actor and he’s the main focus of the show.

    I don’t understand why OUAT does so well and wonderland doesn’t. Shouldn’t the same audience like the show? Is it just the timeslot?

  • FRED

    What ABC should do ASAP:

    SUNDAY

    OUATW- 7:00-Feels like it belongs here.
    OUAT-8:00
    GREY’S- 9:00- While its still formidable. Should perform better than Revenge.
    NASHVILLE- 10:00- Should improve upon BETRAYAL.

    MONDAY

    NO CHANGE for now. But DWTS should probably end this season. Maybe just for summer.

    TUESDAY

    S.H.I.E.L.D-8:00
    New Drama- 9:00-But not typical ABC female skewing show
    New Drama- 10:00- I’m sure ABC can find something more enticing than Lucky 7.

    WEDNESDAY

    MIDDLE-8:00
    GOLDBERGS-8:30/Back In The Game can return later if Goldbergs flops. Or new sitcom. Crazy how NOTHING works after MIDDLE!
    MODERN FAMILY-9:00
    TROPHY WIFE-9:30-better companion than SFF. And I watch SFF. Same problem as the 8:30 slot. Just ridiculous how troubling this slot is for ABC. Miss Happy Ending dearly and Cougar Town on ABC. Both superior sitcoms.
    REVENGE-10:00-Back where it belongs!

    THURSDAY

    SHARK TANK-8:00- Why not? Seems to perform OK anywhere. If can’t air a second addition, AFHV. Both should be more profitable than another expensive scripted show. TBBT is a beast and most shows are getting whipped badly here. So bow out until TBBT inevitably falls.
    SCANDAL–9:00- Probably will improve upon Grey’s ratings and help a new drama.
    NEW DRAMA- 10:00- An addicting female skewing drama.

    FRIDAY:

    SHARK TANK- 8:00- Lead off the night strong.
    The LOOKOUT/PRIMETIME WHAT WOULD YOU DO?-9:00- Very similar ultra light magazine type shows. The LOOKOUT (formally PRIMETIME NIGHTLINE) is an entertaining warning type magazine.
    20/20- 10:00

  • FRED

    I feel bad canceling Super Fun Night(I mistakenly typed SFF in my previous post) It’s only mildly funny and don’t see it ever becoming a hit. I mean every episode is almost the same. That said, it still gives me an occasional chuckle.
    Also sitcoms on Friday are not performing as well this season. Sad because I was a huge fan of TGIF back in the 80’s and 90’s.

    ABC had huge problems this season and it will take a major overhaul to improve the #s. But for now a little tinkering might help them a bit. But won’t change the fact that they will most likely end up in 4th place.

    Too bad because ABC has some really entertaining shows that are being ignored by too many viewers.

  • FRED

    @Joey

    I also enjoy OUATW. Great acting and some really great effects and production values. But we are minority I guess.

  • Ted Craig

    @Chris

    Ugly Betty, which ran in the 8 o’clock spot until ’08-’09. Since then ABC has tried to find the next Lost (FlashForward, Last Resort) a revival of a ’70s show, and a really bad soap opera. Now this.

  • Brandy

    @Tom, first syndication dosent work like that,bundling two separate different shows together and secondOUATIW is a “limited series” with 13 or more episodes but less than 22& no backorder.

  • Brandy

    Why do people keep saying OUTIW or Nashville or Scandal should move to move to Sun night?Greys & Scandal are working.Plus, any show on Sun has to face SNF,awards,Walking Dead,Game of Thrones ect.Why risk killing Scandals momementum?Or risk a already struggling bubble show in the death slot?

  • Michael

    Predictions:

    The Neighbors- Cancelled
    Betrayl- Cancelled
    Wonderland – Cancelled
    Trophy Wife – Cancelled
    The Goldbergs – Cancelled

    Last Man Standing – Renewed (Syndication Gods will be at their service..chalk this one for 2014 as well :)
    Nashville – Renewed
    Back in the Game – Renewed
    Super Fun Night – Renewed BUT it’s moved to Fridays (See “The Neighbors”)

  • Alecia

    @Dan S

    I don’t have a problem with people being passionate about their shows. There’s nothing wrong with that. I just disagree that if the show moves to Wednesday with a smaller a lead-in that its ratings would automatically be higher which is what Dan is saying.

  • Rebecca

    @Fred
    Maybe I’ll try OUATiW some time soon, online; so far I have not watched it since I’m just not into the whole Alice in Wonderland thing. I prefer the original OUAT. But you said in another thread that it’s more family friendly than OUAT, so it has that going for it and would seem fine in an early time slot like you suggested. I never saw Less Than Perfect. One thing I thought was pretty funny with SFN was that one of Rebel’s friends looks and sounds a lot like Jodie Foster (albeit heavier), and then she was briefly dressed up as her character from “Silence of the Lambs” in the Halloween episode last week – that was awesome. I miss Happy Endings, too – FYI the guy who played Max is now playing a doctor on The Mindy Project (Fox), and the one who played Jane is now recurring as the ex-wife on The Millers (CBS). I’m glad they’re back on TV. I’m also really enjoying Trophy Wife – the whole cast is great, but the granola ex-wife and the Asian kid really crack me up. And tonight Bradley Whitford was dressed as Billy Idol for an 80s dance…excellent.

  • Feedback

    ABC needs to fire someone in their scheduling office.

    If they had premiered Wonderland after Once, it would have been renewed for sure. Revenge at 10pm would have probably helped the show as well.

    And on Thursdays, if they moved Grey’s to 8, Scandal to 9, and premiered Betrayal at 10, we would probably be talking about THREE successful new dramas instead of just one (Shield).

  • Mia

    Back In The Game should not be on the “likely to be renewed pile” it is a terrible show and very weak in the ratings especially when you consider that it is sandwiched between two very popular shows. It IS ABC’s weakest link for wednesday night and will more than likely be cancelled.

  • Doug

    If GA is moved, it will the last season of the show. Period. Series that old, and that have inhabited one timeslot for that many years, are watched by a large number of viewers out of sheer habit, and don’t survive moves very well. GA is borderline good for ABC right now, but if it were to fall to the lower 2s, it would be effectively over (due to cost). For that reason, if ABC intends to end GA next season, they will move it, and if not, it will stay where it is. ABC has been doing this a lot longer than you guys have – they know how it goes.

  • Ultima

    @Feedback
    ABC needs to fire someone in their scheduling office.

    If they had premiered Wonderland after Once, it would have been renewed for sure. Revenge at 10pm would have probably helped the show as well.

    And on Thursdays, if they moved Grey’s to 8, Scandal to 9, and premiered Betrayal at 10, we would probably be talking about THREE successful new dramas instead of just one (Shield).

    No love for Lucky 7? ;)

  • Ultima

    @Doug
    If GA is moved, it will the last season of the show. Period. Series that old, and that have inhabited one timeslot for that many years, are watched by a large number of viewers out of sheer habit, and don’t survive moves very well.

    CSI? It’s final season at Thursday 9pm had a 3.0 rating, the next season at Wednesday 10pm had a 2.7 rating, in line with it’s normal year-to-year drops.

  • V

    Goldbegs and Trophy Wife were considered self starters that’s why it got the Tuesday slot.
    What did Last Man Standing get its 1st season on Tuesday?
    Was it above 90% of index.

    All of the networks have struggled to get a 2nd comedy block.
    CBS had the most success, by moving BBT to Thursday. Unless ABC moves Modern Family, its going to have hard time.

  • reo

    where’s the love for Rebel? i think Super Fun Night makes for a nice snack. it’s not bear chow though.

  • alvar

    Without going overboard on timeslot changes, here are a few small improvements to ABC’s schedule in the Spring:

    Sunday
    8 Once Upon a Time
    9 Scandal (established audience will follow to Sunday, delivers more viewers into Once and Revenge)
    10 Revenge

    Monday
    8 Dancing With The Stars
    10 Castle

    Tuesday
    8 Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
    9 Resurrection (premieres in a more profile timeslot with SHIELD lead in)
    10 Mind Games

    Wednesday
    8 The Middle
    8.30 Suburgatory
    9 Modern Family
    9.30 Mixology
    10 Nashville

    Thursday
    8 Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (give this one time to grow since nothing else works in the slot)
    9 Grey’s Anatomy
    10 Killer Women

    Friday
    8 Last Man Standing
    8.30 Back in the Game or The Goldbergs (cancel The Neighbors, Super Fun Night, Trophy Wife)
    9 Shark Tank
    10 20/20

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