ABC: 'The Goldbergs' Now A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 22nd, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


ARKive image GES086050 - Brown bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.48
Betrayal :oops: 0.50
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.62
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.68
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.75
Nashville :| :| :| 0.83
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Back In The Game :) :) :) :) 0.91
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Super Fun Night :) :) :) :) 1.21
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Ratings for The Goldbergs keep falling. Last week it was ABC's second worst rated sitcom, ahead only of the doomed Trophy Wife, well under the ratings for Back In The Game, which had its ratings tick up a tenth to over 90% of ABC's weekly scripted ratings average. Because of that, the Cancellation Bear is making a double prediction move. The Goldbergs has moved down to a "toss up" for renewal and cancellation and Back In The Game has moved up to "likely to be renewed". Why the difference when The Goldbergs Index is higher? The Index is an average, when ratings change quickly it takes some time to "catch up".

Once Upon A Time In Wonderland's prediction has also been moved down, to "certain to be canceled". How long it stays on the schedule is anybody's guess, except the bear's, he doesn't bother with that.

Super Fun Night ratings keep dropping too. Were the one to anticipate future ratings he'd have downgraded it already. Since he doesn't, he'll wait and see the future ratings.

As always, early in the season, predictions change rapidly. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Keith

    I’d like to see them move the Goldbergs to 8:30 on Wednesday to follow The Middle since it’s more family friendly. Back in the Game is NOT family friendly by any stretch of the imagination and I have to turn it off because my daughter is still awake at 8:30.

  • Dan S

    I think what ABC needs to do is move both Shark Tank & 2020 to Sun after OUAT. Leave Mon alone & move Scandal to Tues at 9pm followed by Killer Women. On Wed after The Middle schedule Goldbergs & at 9:30p bring back Suburgatory & return Revenge to Wed at 10pm. On Thur start the night with Resurrection at 8pm & after GA schedule Mind Games at 10pm. On Fri replace Neighbors with BITG. At 9pm Mixology, at 9:30 SFN & Nashville at 10pm.

  • sofaspud

    @ Sandy

    I like the GOLDBERGS, but the anachronisms are annoying. This wasn’t that long ago and most of the viewers are going to be from that period looking for nostalgia and will notice these things. The last episode had the sister and little brother hooked on GENERAL HOSPITAL, but the scenes showed on TV were live episodes from the Golden Era of Luke and Laura’s wedding (1981-82) which somehow was airing at the same time as ALF (1986-1990) on VHS replay. I agree, pick a year and stick with it. I don’t recall but was it like this with HAPPY DAYS and THAT 70S SHOW?

  • omabin

    Why do people keep insisting that ABC schedules a presumably young skewing comedy that is not even doing a good job midweek after the highest rated program on the network to freaking Fridays? It’s beyond me…

  • omabin

    Also, I would like to know since when the third/forth highest rated show on a network is “bordeline good” for that network as people have been claiming that GA is for ABC.

    For your consideration, ABC this year so far:
    – Modern Family: 4.12
    – Agents of Shield: 3.43
    – Scandal: 3.3
    – Grey’s Anatomy: 3.08
    – Super Fun Night: 2.60
    – The Middle: 2.33
    – Once Upon a Time: 2.28
    – The Goldbergs: 2.20
    – Castle: 2.08
    – Back in the Game: 1.95
    – Revenge: 1.83
    – Nashville: 1.78
    – Trophy Wife: 1.60
    – Once Upon a Time in Wonderland: 1.45
    – Last Man Standing: 1.32
    – Betrayal: 1.08
    – The Neighbors: 1.02
    – Lucky 7: 0.8

    I am sure that ABC considers a show that is performing sans any lead-in whatsoever and can self start the hell out of a night and still average a 2.7 in a week where scripted shows on the network averaged a mere 2.0 (136% of the network’s average) is considered borderline. People should look a bit more at the ratings before making these type of declarations. You may argue that Grey’s would not survive a move all you want, but claiming that an evidence of that is that it is borderline acceptable right now is preposterous.

  • Ronak

    Thanks for those numbers Omabin, though they are pretty soft (I expect AoS and OUAT to crash hard from those averages). I’ve never noticed that ABC have so few procedurals, they should really do more of those than awful dramas like Betrayal or Lucky 7.

  • Mike

    Goldbergs is the funniest new show this year and I’m mad that it might get cancelled. It’s really good.

  • Ray

    Grey’s Anatomy still is one of ABC’s top shows. Yes its old, but its a hit still with a pretty loyal fanbase, and its ratings haven’t been dropping as drastically as they used to, so that’s good. I think ABC should give it a final season and let it go out while its still pulling in good numbers. Yes I know its one of their top shows and they’ll have a hard time getting another hit drama (but Desperate Housewives was also one of their top shows, but it just needed to end because of age). I feel Grey’s Anatomy needs to do the same. ABC wouldn’t have a problem with launching new dramas if they found interesting, actually good quality dramas and gave them a good timeslot. That’s one of ABC’s problems is quality & giving everything a bad timeslot. Here’s how ABC should schedule next year.

    MONDAYS:
    08:00 – Dancing with the Stars
    10:00 – Castle

    TUESDAYS:
    08:00 – Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
    09:00 – Once Upon a Time
    10:00 – Resurrection / New Drama (if Resurrection is canceled)

    WEDNESDAYS:
    08:00 – The Middle
    08:30 – New Comedy
    09:00 – Modern Family
    09:30 – New Comedy
    10:00 – Revenge

    THURSDAYS:
    08:00 – Grey’s Anatomy (FINAL SEASON)
    09:00 – Scandal
    10:00 – New Drama

    FRIDAYS:
    08:00 – Last Man Standing
    08:30 – New Comedy
    09:00 – Shark Tank
    10:00 – 20/20

    SUNDAYS:
    08:00 – The Bachelor / The Bachelorette
    10:00 – New Drama / Nashville (if Resurrection is canceled)

  • Randy S

    I still feel one of the biggest mistakes ABC made was the way Malibu Country was treated. It should have aired after Modern Family and before Nashville. That could’ve been huge. Modern Family already is big, but Malibu Country could have easily broke 3.0 and Nashville could have easily hit a 2.5. The averages could have been like this:

    Modern Family: 3.8-4.5
    Malibu Country: 2.7-3.3
    Nashville: 2.2-2.6

    But ABC blew a perfect opportunity away and threw Malibu Country on Fridays last year and ended it with cancellation.

  • CBSviewer

    @ James

    There’s many problems on your Schedule.
    – Once Upon a Time WON’T move to Tuesday. It’s the only ABC Show which is able to get a 2.0 on Sunday. Plus on Tuesday at 9 it would have to face NCIS: Los Angeles and The Voice.
    – Revenge, Grey’s Anatomy and Scandal will stay where they are.
    – if Resurrection is a hit (unlikely) it will stay on Sunday.

  • sandy245

    @sofaspud

    I couldn’t agree more. I was a teen in the 80’s and it bugs me how they’re just mashing all the trends together.
    I think THE GOLDBERGS IS a good show and I enjoy watching, but when they show that it’s 1982 one week, 1987 the next, and the then have the gall to spoof a popular film from 1989 just one week later, it’s so distracting that i’m taken right out of the show and start tuning out.
    If they want to sustain this for the long run, they need to do start in one year and go up with each season. Otherwise this will just become a one season ’80’s fad show’. Happy Days & Laverne & Shirley are two comedies that successfully stuck to a true yearly timeline and lasted for years on television.
    For now, i’ll continue to watch, but each week I get more disinterested with the schizophrenic jumping around the years.

  • Rebecca

    Yeah, the jumping around in 80s years is a little annoying (last night had stuff from “Say Anything” and that was 1989)…I’ve decided to ignore that bit in The Goldbergs’ “background noise” and just enjoy the show for the characters in it. I graduated Class of 1988, and there is a lot of the 80s I’m not fond of, lol – but it’s still fun.

  • Randy

    I’m shocked that Last Man Standing has made it this far. It had trouble from the get go because of the terrible shows after it. Why wouldn’t they pair Last Man Standing with the Goldbergs. Those 2 shows go together. Instead, they put Goldbergs with the dumb show Trophy Wife after it. So, if people want to watch a full hour at 8pm central, they aren’t going to watch Trophy Wife, and than Goldbergs gets bad ratings because it’s junk after Goldbergs. I think they should have put the Marvel show at 9pm on Tuesdays. They expect the Marvel people to automatically watch Goldbergs and Trophy Wife.

    Super Fun Night is a sinking ship. I think you have it a little too high for renewal. The first week of Super Fun Night, they tricked people. The first week they had Modern Family for 1 hr new instead of Super Fun Night, and than I think that people got tricked into watching Super Fun Night the 2nd week because they probably thought Modern Family would be on a hour again. Now, on wikipedia it’s up to only 6 million from 8 the first week. It’s probably going to go down even more tonight. It just looks like an idiotic show from the get go.

  • FRED

    @Rebecca

    I watched the pilot ep of Goldbergs. While I didn’t laugh out loud, I did chuckle. It was interesting to see all of those 80’s long lost artifacts.
    I think I need to watch another ep or 2 to fully get into it. George Segal is a comic legend. Loved him in those comedy movies from back in the day.

    You should give OUAT Wonderland a shot. You might be pleasantly surprised. I’m also not into the Alice In Wonderland plot, but it mixes in elements of my all time favorite Disney movie, Aladdin. The second ep improves upon the pilot. Let me know what you think.

  • Michael1

    My favorite part about “The Goldbergs” is the real-life home videos at the end of the episode about the aspect on which the episode was (loosely) based. It’s just neat to think that the show is (loosely) based on actual events that Adam F. Goldberg experienced while growing up.

  • Doug

    GA is already at a 2.7. By the end of the season it will be down to a 2.3 or 2.4, if not a tick lower. The difference between a “hit” and a borderline show is very minimal these days – on ABC, it appears to be about .5 or .6 ratings points. There’s a decent chance that GA will fall by that much by the end of the season anyway, given its typical ratings trajectory. That’s why I say borderline good.

    Take off the fan boy glasses.

  • Doug

    @Ultima – and this season CSI is below a 2. CSI also has the advantage of being a procedural, which GA does not.

  • Evan

    OMG people!! Wonderland is only meant to be a short season!! They will wrap it up in around 13 episodes and then the story is DONE! It was not meant to be picked up for a second season!

  • Rebecca

    @Fred
    Okay, I will. Have not had time yet but I’ll find time. And I agree, George Segal is great as the grandpa on The Goldbergs. I remember him from some movies but also from Just Shoot Me (I think I saw all of that show’s episodes). He looks good for 79. I like the whole cast, and he’s in it a lot but the mom is still my favorite (his daughter). The episodes after the pilot have some funny and sweet moments here and there (and some stuff has made me laugh out loud if not at least chuckle a bit), so I hope you keep watching.

  • Ultima

    @Doug
    and this season CSI is below a 2

    Are you suggesting that if ABC doesn’t move Grey’s Anatomy, then in three years it won’t be below a 2?

    If that’s not what you’re suggesting, could you please explain the point of your comment.

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