ABC: 'The Goldbergs' Now A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 22nd, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


ARKive image GES086050 - Brown bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.48
Betrayal :oops: 0.50
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.62
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.68
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.75
Nashville :| :| :| 0.83
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Back In The Game :) :) :) :) 0.91
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.99
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 1.03
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Super Fun Night :) :) :) :) 1.21
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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Ratings for The Goldbergs keep falling. Last week it was ABC's second worst rated sitcom, ahead only of the doomed Trophy Wife, well under the ratings for Back In The Game, which had its ratings tick up a tenth to over 90% of ABC's weekly scripted ratings average. Because of that, the Cancellation Bear is making a double prediction move. The Goldbergs has moved down to a "toss up" for renewal and cancellation and Back In The Game has moved up to "likely to be renewed". Why the difference when The Goldbergs Index is higher? The Index is an average, when ratings change quickly it takes some time to "catch up".

Once Upon A Time In Wonderland's prediction has also been moved down, to "certain to be canceled". How long it stays on the schedule is anybody's guess, except the bear's, he doesn't bother with that.

Super Fun Night ratings keep dropping too. Were the one to anticipate future ratings he'd have downgraded it already. Since he doesn't, he'll wait and see the future ratings.

As always, early in the season, predictions change rapidly. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Rebooted

    2014-2015:

    Sundays need some work. Once Upon A time is stable and I think with a big push they can rediscover the big numbers of season one and the first half of season 2. Greys Anatomy I believe only has a few seasons left in it and it will never launch a new show with Scandal (love it) behind it. Move it to Sundays where it began and launch a new drama after it. Probably a female skewing family drama, like brothers and sisters the last show to get renewed in that time slot (sunday at 10).

    Sunday
    AFHV
    Once Upon A Time
    Greys Anatomy (new night)
    new drama

    Mondays have been stable this season for ABC, so ABC will probably shake it up (ironic, yes i know, but this is my prediction). Have Nashville take Castles spot at 10. Both shows, DWTS and Nashville, have music elements to it and CBS and NBC will probably both have crime shows in this slot so nashville is probably a good fit.

    Monday
    DWTS
    Nashville (new night)

    Tuesdays this season right now are the best of times and the worst of times. They had the best rated drama premiere in four years (SHIELD) and the lowest rated ABC drama premiere ever (lUCKY 7). Shield should be tested to see if it can launch a successful male skewing drama. Castle should round the night off at 10.

    Tuesday
    SHIElD
    new drama
    Castle (new night)

    Wednesdays are ready for a change in the 10pm hour with a new drama, probably a female skewing family/action drama or a dramedy. Leave Middle, BITG, and modern family where they are, and put a new family drama with BIG names attached after Modern Family.

    Wednesday
    Middle
    BITG
    Modern Family
    new comedy
    new drama

    Thursdays will pair Revenge and Scandal with an addicting new female skewing drama after Scandal, who takes Greys hour at 9. This may be a risky change, but considering where Scandal has come from, I think they can handle it. Revenge gets the death slot. If it fails its can be cancellled because thats its fourth season and if it does good than hey- no more death slot!!!!
    Thursday
    Revenge (new night and time)
    Scandal (new time)
    new drama

    Fridays see another season of Last Man Standing with family comedy the goldbers replacing Neighbors. Shark Tank will remain strong at 9 with quiet but stable 20/20 at 10.

    Friday
    Last Man Standing
    The Goldbergs (new night and time)
    Shark Tank
    20/20

    Obviously, I have little optimism with new ABC comedies and am somewhat optimistic with a new drama lineup but hey, shoot me your THOUGHTS!

  • Devin

    This is what I would have done in the fall.

    Sunday
    AFHV
    Once Upon A Time(Sept-Nov)/Wonderland(Dec-Feb)/Once Upon a Time (March-May)
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Resurrection

    Monday
    DWTS
    Nashville

    Tuesday
    Shield
    Mind Games
    Castle

    Wednesday
    Middle
    The Goldbergs
    Modern Family
    Trophy Wife
    Revenge

    Thursday
    Shark Tank
    Scandal
    Killer Women

    Friday
    Last Man Standing
    Back in The Game
    Super Fun Night
    Mixology
    20/20

  • Darren

    I enjoy The Goldbergs and hope it stays. It’s the only sitcom I’ve liked this fall. It took a couple of episodes to grow on me. Everything else has been dreadful. I really miss 30 Rock and the Office.

  • Ryan Tadych

    Here is my take:

    The Goldberg’s is not bad! It has it’s funny moments and is decent. Trophy Wife is not funny. I have watched every episode and barely chuckled. It’s just not funny.

    I love Back in the Game. I think it is pretty funny and Last Man Standing I have loved since day one.

    Shark tank is interesting….It just had it’s highest ever viewers on Friday, but I still feel this show could get close to 10 million viewers on like a Monday or Wednesday…but it works well on Fridays so don’t fix something that is not broken.

    Last Man Standing will be renewed because of syndication. If it gets 24 episodes this season, another 24 in Season 4 would give it enough for synidcation. Someone mentioned Malibu Country…that show had higher ratings than The Neighbors. I agree that Back in the Game or Goldbergs would work well with LMS on Friday nights.

    Keep in mind that I think ABC will bring back Dancing Results. There has been a lot of controversy this season over the unfairness of how the results are done. The show is not going anywhere. It’s rating have been nearly even with last year. A couple judges changes and some fresher content could get it back on it’s feet!

    So Trophy Wife will be canned. LMS (full season of 24 and renewal), Back in the Game full season and renewal, and maybe Goldbergs..We shall see

  • Ashton

    Keep Nashville on the air and renew it for a third season!

  • omabin

    @Doug,

    What you fail to mention is that if Grey’s is down to 2.3 by the end of the season as you suggest, the likes of OAUT, Castle, Nashvile, Revenge, Scandal, etc would also likely be down by proportional amounts. It is not a sure thing ure, but Grey’s has been a league average dropping kind of show. Why would it now fall way more than the league? If Grey’s goes to 2.3, chances are that’s the new hit standards on ABC.

  • Mumbo

    Even though Wonderland’s ratings are horrible, I still honestly expect the full 13 episodes will be run without getting yanked. Anything new ABC launches Thursday at 8 is just being thrown to the wolves anyway. And they can only fill so many slots with reruns. Betrayal will probably get yanked first.

  • James

    This is what ABC should’ve done this fall:

    Sunday
    OUAT/OUAT in Wonderland/OUAT
    Greys
    Revenge

    Monday
    DWTS
    Nashville

    Tuesday
    SHIELD
    Resurrection or Mind Games
    Castle

    Wednesday
    Middle
    Goldbergs
    Modern Family
    Trophy Wife
    Lucky 7 but I still wish ABC wouldve picked up the Venice pilot, which would’ve gone here

    Thursday
    DWTS Results
    Scandal
    Betrayal

    Friday
    LMS
    BITG
    Shark Tank
    20/20

    Thur

  • Stefan

    The perfect schedule for next fall:

    Sunday

    8 – DWTS
    10 – Nashville

    The voice is hurting DWTS so much, and paired with Nashville on a Sunday could be perfect.

    Monday

    8 – OUAT
    9 – Grey’s
    10 – New drama

    Tuesday

    8 – SHIELD
    9 – Castle
    10 – That new crime drama ABC ordered to pilot.

    Why not have a crime solving male skewing night?

    Wednesday

    8 – The Middle
    8:30 – New Comedy
    9 – Modern Family
    9:30 – New Comedy
    10 – New family oriented dramedy

    Thursday

    8 – Shark Tank
    9 – Scandal
    10 – Revenge

    Hoping Scandal does well and even grows for the remainder of the season, next year it can lead it’s own night and possible save Revenge. I know it would be smart to launch a new drama out of Scandal, but Revenge is really back on track these season, end the season on a huge cliffhanger that will create major buzz for next season, have marathons during the summer and these two can be a monster combo next year. As for the 8 pm death slot, if Shark Tank can pull a 2.0 on Fridays I think it can pull the same numbers in the death slot.

    Friday

    8 – LMS
    8:30 – New Comedy
    9 – Primetime: What Would You Do?
    10 – 20/20

  • the moon

    Why is Last Man Standing still on the bubble?

  • Nick

    If you don’t find the Goldbergs funny than you have absolutely no sense of humor.

  • Rebecca

    I finally got into Scandal, on Netflix. 29 episodes are there, and I think I’m almost done with season 2. Very addictive show, especially if you binge-watch like I did (only started watching this past week, after I caught up on OUATiW and everything else). It’s probably not something I can watch live each week (once I catch up to the current season) but once I’m caught up I’ll keep streaming it on hulu. So now I guess that makes 11 shows for me on ABC, wow – yeah, I watch too much TV but it keeps me entertained.

  • DKD

    Nashville has a higher C3 lift than Revenge and Back in the Game. If the three are close in Live + SD ratings, Nashville will get the edge.

  • Rebooted

    @ Rebecca

    Tell me about it. I watch Grey’s Anatomy, Scandal, Nashville, Once Upon A Time, Once Upon A Time in Wonderland, SHIELD, Revenge, Betrayal, Castle, The Goldbers, and The Middle.

    That’s 11. I LOVE ABC, but sometimes they schedule stuff in the weirdest ways.

  • Ammowife64

    I love The Goldberg’s ! PLEASE DON’T CANCEL IT !

  • Chris

    Will somebody please explain to me why the popular and successful Once Upon A Time has a failing spin-off? I don’t get it…usually a spin off thats happening at the same time as the original show does alright. Especially when it comes to these kind of genre shows (I’m thinking Buffy and Angel). Maybe because they’re not on the same night like the two shows I mentioned?

  • Rebecca

    @Chris
    All I can figure is it’s not a true spin-off. They’re two entirely different shows, and so far the only shared characters we’ve seen were maybe 1-3 from OUAT in the Wonderland pilot (Grumpy was in a scene at Storybrooke’s diner, and the girl with him may or may not be from OUAT as well. I can’t remember who else might have appeared). It would help more if they were on the same night (as many of us think) or if they’d stuck with the plan of holding Wonderland until the winter hiatus of OUAT to air. There haven’t been any crossover episodes yet (if any are planned) between the two shows like there used to be sometimes with Buffy and Angel…maybe it would help if there were one or two.

  • Daniel

    Huge fan of the Goldbergs only one of 3 shows I actually am sure to watch each week the other 2 being Walking Dead and Sleepy Hollow, I grew up in the 80’s and with them not being consistent does not bother me, I barely notice the only problem I have had with the show is the lack of showing certain things that were popular like most toys especially He-Man and that on Halloween episode no Ben Cooper costumes which was our mainstay……….also I would love them to show some old stores like Caldor, Child World, Woolworth, Zayre or many others that have gone out of business but were popular back then, but most won’t happen most likely due to having to pay for the rights to use names or products.

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