CW: 'The Originals' Is Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 22nd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Beauty And The Beast :cry: :cry: 0.35
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.47
Reign :| :| :| 0.93
The Tomorrow People :) :) :) :) 0.99
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.28
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Nikita final season #DIV/0!

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The Originals ratings moved up in its second week in its permanent timeslot to tie Arrow as the CW's #2 show for the week. The Cancellation Bear is moving it to "certain to be renewed".

Reign premiered with no margin for decline last week. If it holds at or near its 0.8 premiere rating, it would be renewed, but if it suffers the typical post premiere declines it's "Off with their heads". The bear's going to wait until next week's ratings to move it off of "toss up".

The CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders. Crazy fans, and anti-fans, who'd like to predict in the comments are welcome to.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Wright

    I think Reign should be 13 episodes each year and air in the fall. That way it can retain its rating and still be able to produce quality episodes. In fact I think it would benefit the CW to do that with some of their other shows too. I’m really hoping Reign gets renewed. SPN, TVD, TO, Arrow and TTP are all great too.

  • CrystalBall

    I watched reign pilot by curiosity, and while it wasn’t as bad as I expected, the constant music playing during the episode was really annoying… So I don’t think it will hold.
    The Tomorrow People could still go either way (remember secret circle.

  • Tessa

    Is Reign satire? I was flipping through channels and I saw a bit where people in Victorian clothes were dancing to Lady Gaga. That couldn’t be serious, could it?

    Happy for The Originals. So far it promises to be a good show. Much better than TVD.

  • Clara

    Ok, it wasnt actually Lady Gaga XD
    I wish people would give a chance, Reign is great show

  • Lukes

    A question… isn’t the point of renewal-for-syndication to get enough episodes to reach the minimum number to get into syndication? if so, what’s the point of a shortened season?

  • JC

    I’m curious as to why the bear has not declared Beauty and the Beast “certain to be cancelled”. Is there some doubt about its fate? (Not being sarcastic – I’m honestly curious.)

  • Michael

    Tessa,

    I saw the pilot. I can’t recall them playing any GaGa music, though. Are you sure?

  • Shepherd

    No arguments really; would probably have BaTB as certain, but that’s more of a prediction for the end of the season as opposed to the season ending today.

  • Lisa

    There wasn’t any Lady Gaga music in the pilot. The person who claims there was is either mistaken or making it up. Ten seconds at Google will get you a full list of music from the pilot.

  • Tom

    @ JC

    Here are some possible reasons (take your pick):

    A number of the CW’s new shows won’t debut until later this season; until then, the CW won’t be able to determine if it still needs BATB;

    BATB was sacrificed to the overwhelming Monday competition from other networks, so ratings don’t matter as much;

    BATB’s ratings only need to rise into the 0.4/0.5 range to be viable considering its timeslot; remember, the CW doesn’t per se compete with the major networks;

    The CW will never walk away from a series with 44 completed episodes at the end of this season; the lure of syndication revenue trumps all;

    The CW is apparently profitable to produce regardless of its ratings.

    Some of these reasons may seem ridiculous, but then the CW isn’t exactly your typical network.

  • Tom

    Darn. Make that “BATB is apparently profitable to produce….”

  • Dan

    @Tom – All of those reasons are good, BATB is airing on CW’s worst rated night (not counting fridays), my guess is that it will be moved to fridays. If numbers dont go up it will be cancelled but who knows.

    Its also the first time last season that CW renewed 3 freshman dramas where normally it would only be 1 or 2.

    As of last nights airing both Hart of Dixie and BATB got a 0.6 if they both stay at that level and not go below a 0.5 then maybe CW would be inclined to keep both. If renewed for next season I could easily see both shows airing on fridays.

    Remember CBS fully owns BATB so CW would profit off syndication. Would it be worth it though?

  • Frank

    Yay for my favorite new show, The Originals! This headline made my day!!! =D

  • Timmy G

    @Dan, CW’s numbers last night were most likely inflated due to football. Expect both shows to drop to at least a .4.

    BATB’s only chance is if they need it for syndication. It’s 99 percent dead.

  • Tom

    @ Dan

    For what it’s worth, under their joint venture agreement, any program that CBS or the WB produces for the CW is a joint production. So, they receive an even split of the profits from BATB. Also, the syndication revenue and profits from the lucrative Netflix deal go directly to the CBS/WB joint venture, not to the CW network.

  • Jon

    @Tom
    Who are you kidding BatB is dead 0.3 since it has started its 2nd season on a monday is horendous. Last week it was not pre-empted but still it could only get 0.3 and this week the only real competition was The Voice since SH was a repeat but still it could not benefit from that either.

  • feinn

    Bring back Ringer and The Secret Circle :)

  • Lol

    :| :D ;) (: :( ;( :’(

  • Midnight

    It’s quiet. Too quiet. Who thinks Nikita will beat BATB on Fridays?

    *Stands back, watches the internet cat-fighting*

  • Dan W

    I still will never understand why The CW decided to cancel 90210 with out a proper ending and renew BATB. Did they really think it wouldn’t flop hard if it didn’t have TVD as a lead in? Even with TVD, it still didn’t do too well. I think they would have been much better off canceling BATB and renewing 90210 for a final 13 episode season. The ratings were about the same as BATB is currently doing but they would have a.) been able to give the fans as well as one of the shows that used to be a huge hit for them a proper ending and b.) they would have had more episodes to sell into syndication. BATB will never reach a decent syndication number (does ANYONE see this show finishing out it’s 22 episode order much less getting renewed for a third, and essentially a fourth, season?)so I think they should have went with a final short 6th season for 90210.

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