FOX: Will The 'Super Bowl' Save 'Brooklyn 9-9' From Being Canceled?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 22nd, 2013

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 20, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.73
Dads :oops: 0.74
Brooklyn Nine-Nine :cry: :cry: 0.83
Bob's Burgers renewed 0.97
American Dad final season on Fox 1.00
Bones :) :) :) :) 1.00
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
Glee renewed 1.03
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.21
The Simpsons renewed 1.40
Sleepy Hollow renewed 1.43

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Brooklyn 9-9 got a "back 9" order last week for a complete 22 episode rookie season. More importantly for our discussion, it has been slotted along with after New Girl following the Super Bowl, which will certainly give it at least a one time viewership boost.

Does that mean the show is guaranteed a renewal for a second season?

Not at all. It likely means that Fox hasn't given up on the show, but its current ratings are still below the threshold that would indicate renewal, and recent history with post Super Bowl episode indicates that retaining all those SB viewers is difficult.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Jazz

    I like Dads. It has grown on me.

  • Potato

    @FowlScat– No no no, you’re thinking of DADS

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Something will have to go terribly terribly wrong for Fox to cancel the show that it airs after the Superbowl. Has this ever happened before?

  • Mike Geary

    Surprised that Mindy is still a toss up. I’m not thinking certain cancellation, but I would be inclined to say more like to be canceled that not at this point.

  • Lukes

    Why has Mindy three smilies if it’s the last of the list?

  • rgxx

    Announced or not; clearly FOX will give to their sweetheart of comedy right now -Zooey to immediatly follow the game – they will want to (hope to) strengthen her numbers first.

  • Jazz

    @Lukes
    I think it’s ad rates that keeps it alive. Not sure.

  • pn

    Oh, they’ll watch it! When it’s after a 100 million watched Super Bowl, I’m sure that some 20 to 30 million post-bowl will watch it! That a huge plum spot that any show wants! This way people can see it without having it facing Tuesday night competition. Brooklyn 9-9 is so funny and this will really expose it to more viewers who haven’t seen it yet.

  • Chris

    All of the Fox Comedies are currently getting the same ratings, it would be hard for them to cancel any of them at this point.

  • Dan

    @Chris – Exactly, New Girl is of course in the lead but if Dads, B99 and Mindy are all averaging the same 1.5, it would be hard to justify cancelling anyone of them now. My guess

    Dads will get a full season or additional episodes but probably cancelled in May

    Brooklyn Nine Nine has the best shot at a renewal

    The Mindy Prject already has a full season but as a second year show, its squarely 50-50. I cant predict what FOX expects from this show.

  • Jagger Dagger

    I remember when the networks would promote a new show after the SB. Now they seem to just try to pump up existings shows that need some help.

    I’m not sure the post SB ratings are actually all the people watching the shows or maybe some of the numbers for the shows that follow the SB are just from TVs that are left on after the game is over and everyone is just sort of milling around not actually watching the TV especially at SuperBowl parties.

  • zerg

    The only shows, I remember, that got a boost the week after were Grey’s and Undercover Boss. Glee and Elmentary returned to the same numbers

  • Joe

    Usually I think these are pretty accurate but this one looks pretty messed up to me. Mindy has the lowest score yet it’s a “toss-up” while Dads and Brooklyn Nine-Nine, with their higher scores, are certain and likely to be cancelled? All after Fox announced B99 is going to air after the Super Bowl, basically proving that it’s a higher priority than Mindy at this point? I don’t understand it. Mindy would have 2 more full seasons to reach syndication if it were renewed so that can’t be a factor.

  • JonniMac

    Dads beat Brooklyn 9-9 last week

  • Jazz

    Mindy won’t work with the broad super bowl audience.

  • Dan S

    Dads is toast & right now I predict B9-9 gets a 2nd season. I honestly don’t think Mindy will return next year & unfortunately neither will RH being moved to Fri.

  • Noel

    Brooklyn has more chances than Elementary, even if Elementary is ten times a better show, Brooklyn is a comedy that appeals to more people. Elementary was too smart for that slot after superbowl. Not saying people who watch superbowl are dumb, they just don’t like shows that give too much lecture. After watching a sports event, they can chill with a comedy. The thing is, will they laugh? Because I didn’t really find the show funny at all, so its not a comedy for everyone. Hopefully they won’t be a blackout this time around.

  • KJ Styles

    The problem with Brooklyn Nine Nine is that it’s up against NCIS and Agents of SHIELD, two of the top rated shows on TV. I’m a fan of all three shows. But I watch NCIS live every week and DVR B99 and SHIELD.

    I can see a renewal for B99 even at it’s current levels if the other sitcoms don’t pan out. Raising Hope will do Fringe numbers on Fridays, and FOX doesn’t seem to believe in the comedies they picked up that haven’t aired yet. It’s not a lock for renewal, but FOX obviously WANTS it to succeed otherwise they wouldn’t have given it the post-Super Bowl spot.

    My solution would be to cancel Dads and have Enlisted air in it’s place, then air Mindy Project at 8:30, New Girl at 9 and B99 at 9:30. It would do better in that spot IMO.

  • Robert Ford

    Dear Fox,
    For the past few seasons, all the live-action comedies I like on your network have been at risk of cancellation (except arguably Raising Hope) while the only one I don’t watch (TNG) does better than some of your animated stuff.

    Seriously: The Mindy Project, Ben and Kate, and now Brooklyn Nine-Nine. None of them deserve(d) to be renewed based on the ratings, and they’re all far too good for me to go “meh” at their inevitable demise.

    Please stop picking funny comedies with highly-limited appeal. It’s too painful watching them die.

  • Robert Ford

    Wait, I don’t watch Dads either. But who does? I think it’s the only recent live-action Fox comedy I haven’t even tried to watch.

    So what I’m saying Fox is:
    Do more shows like Dads, so I don’t care when they’re canceled.

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