CBS: 'Hostages' Is Certain To Be Canceled, But Will It Air All Its Episodes On Monday At 10pm?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hostages :oops: 0.57
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.57
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.59
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.59
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.77
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.84
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Mom :| :| :| 0.92
Two and a Half Men :) :) :) :) 0.99
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
The Crazy Ones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.32
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.23

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Hostages is a "limited series" because it has a limited number of episodes (<22) per season. What that means to the Cancellation Bear is that if the series has good ratings it will be renewed next season (like, Sleepy Hollow), and if it has bad ratings (like, Hostages) it won't return, and CBS PR will spin it as "Hey, it was just a limited series".

Since the show is obviously doomed and destined for #bearchow, a more interesting question is whether it will air all its ordered episodes at its original timeslot, or whether it will be moved somewhere else in the calendar (or online). With so little experience with broadcast "limited series" the bear won't hazard a guess, he'll wait and see.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • KJ Styles

    @k:Alex- “And I still think The Millers will be canceled, they lose almost half of it’s lead in and are still shrinking.”

    Only two CBS sitcoms are higher rated than The Millers, and one of them is in it’s final season. It’s not getting cancelled. Networks DO NOT CARE about retention.

  • Ultima

    @KJ Styles
    Parks & Rec was NBC’s highest rated comedy last year (well actually it was the Office but it was in it’s final season). If Rules were on NBC and outperformed Parks, then it would have DEFINITELY been renewed.

    Because ratings are all that matter. Shows don’t actually cost money to produce.

  • ToXiX

    Rob! Should have been renewed.

  • KJ Styles

    @Ultima-”Because ratings are all that matter. Shows don’t actually cost money to produce.”

    I highly doubt that ROE cost that much more than Parks & Rec. The actors might make more (although that’s debatable given Poehler’s popularity) but besides that I doubt it.

    @ToXiX- Rob was cancelled because CBS didn’t have as many comedy hours at the time as they do now. It was a battle between Rob and Rules for renewal two seasons ago, and they went with a half season of Rules to give it closure.

  • KJ Styles

    As for Hostages, it will definitely air all it’s episodes UNLESS it dips below 1.0. Intelligence isn’t set to air until February. They could cut a few eps if they really believe in Intelligence, but even then it’s looking at a January premiere at the earliest.

    Mom is a sinking ship. The World Series didn’t help it last night, but then again 2 Broke Girls was up vs. last week when the World Series hadn’t even started yet. It’s only chance of renewal is if Two & A Half Men gets cancelled or decides to end because Ashton Kutcher doesn’t re-up his deal. It will not leapfrog The Crazy Ones or The Millers. I see both of those shows as certain renewals.

  • Ultima

    @KJ Styles
    I highly doubt that ROE cost that much more than Parks & Rec.

    To produce, probably not. However, NBC is getting syndication revenue from Parks & Rec, which means it could actually take a loss on the show first run and still make money. That’s not the case with Rules and with Sony not needing more episodes for syndication, NBC would probably be eating most of the cost increases for the show through the licensing fee.

  • Dan

    @Bill Gorman – 15 episodes of Hostages were ordered. Currently 12 episodes are scheduled to air through Dec 16. Episode 7 on Nov 4, Episode 8 on Nov 11, Episode 9 on Nov 18, Episode 10 on Nov 25, Episode 11 on Dec 2, Repeat on Dec 9 and Episode 12 on Dec 16. CBS may opt to air a new episode on the 9th and just air new eps on Dec 23 and 30 to get the series out of the way.

    My personal guess is that Hostages will probably just air in its current slot. Like the Mob Doctor and FOX last season, CBS has no ready replacements and with Intelligence waiting in the wings, (Like FOX and The Following) they may as well just burn through the episodes.

  • joel

    CBS should have done Hostages in the summer and aired Under The Dome in the fall.

  • joe

    I think any show that airs on Sunday Nights is hindered due to Football.
    CBS needs to remove 60 Minutes from the line-up on Sundays when they air double header Football Games in the fall. NBC wins the night in the fall with their coverage of Football. Football usually grabs more sponsors and viewers.

    I like MOM; give it some time. 2 1/2 Men tolerable; however, needs to be renamed, or given an opportunity to wrap the show up with a proper series finale. The Crazy Ones needs to embrace Robin Williams stand-up comedy humor, the rest of the cast is not very funny. The Millers grows funnier each episode.

    H50 is in syndication, so this show will be given more time to produce episodes for syndication. The Mentalist was doing fine until the show got all Red John; I think this will be the last season.

    The sad thing is networks build-up new programs all summer, then cancel shows only after 2 or 3 episodes. I would think when you want to air a new show the network could use a focus group to test viewer reaction to the show. I also think networks should have other new shows sitting in the can to put in the place of a canceled show. So many opportunities for production companies to air new shows, do this instead of airing re-runs of established shows we have just seen.

  • KJ Styles

    I LOVE the Crazy Ones! It’s my favorite new sitcom this season. Glad that it’s certain to be renewed.

    It will be interesting to see what show replaces HIMYM next season Mondays at 8pm. I’m thinking it will either be 2 Broke Girls or a totally new sitcom. What do y’all think?

  • JSG

    @DSC I agree with you that if it’s one or the other, The Good Wife probably would be a bit more likely to get renewed than The Mentalist. But let’s be honest. It’s ratings are only microscopically better. The critical praise is nice, but they won’t be enough to save it. Plenty of acclaimed shows have been canceled due to low ratings. Being a year younger, rated a tiny bit better and garnering acclaim and stray Emmy nominations give it a small advantage over The Mentalist. But the real question is whether CBS just cancels both shows (to be fair, you alluded to this toward the end of your post). That is looking increasingly likely from where I’m sitting.

    I’d still put The Good Wife on the bubble for now, but its ratings can’t afford to go much lower. And it has to pray that Intelligence isn’t somehow a hit. I like The Good Wife a lot, and I hope it gets renewed. But I have to be realistic about it. And frankly, the “six years is enough” argument about The Mentalist can just as easily be made about The Good Wife’s five years. If I had to guess, I’d think that CBS would like to avoid canceling both Sunday shows, so I’d guess a final season of The Good Wife along with Elementary will be the Sunday night lineup next season. But I don’t make that prediction with any degree of confidence.

  • V

    They might as well, move Intelligence up to January.

    Does CBS have the NFC/AFC game this year?
    They have aired Mentalist/5-0 in past seasons.

    Maybe they do the same.
    Similar to what FOX is doing with Being Human airing Sun/Mon.

  • Ultima

    @Dan
    Currently 12 episodes are scheduled to air through Dec 16.

    Where are you getting that from? Futon Critic lists nothing scheduled beyond episode ten on 25 November.

  • Ultima

    @V
    Does CBS have the NFC/AFC game this year?

    CBS has the AFC Championship Game every single year, while FOX has the NFC Championship Game; however, they alternate timeslots (FOX has the primetime game this season).

    CBS will also have one late Sunday playoff game, but that will lead into their regular line-up (with 60 Minutes at 8pm).

  • Ultima

    @joe
    I think any show that airs on Sunday Nights is hindered due to Football.

    Yet those shows still have higher ratings in the fall than in the spring, just like everything else.

    CBS needs to remove 60 Minutes from the line-up on Sundays when they air double header Football Games in the fall.

    No, they don’t. The Mentalist taking a ratings hit for a few episodes a year really isn’t that big of a deal.

    I would think when you want to air a new show the network could use a focus group to test viewer reaction to the show.

    They already do this. Just because the test audiences likes a show, doesn’t mean it will hit. Just because the pilot was a hit doesn’t mean that subsequent episodes will keep viewers interested.

    I also think networks should have other new shows sitting in the can to put in the place of a canceled show.

    It takes a significant amount of time to promote a new show effectively. Once the network decides that a new fall show has failed and needs to be replaced, midseason is typically the earliest reasonable replacement time.

    It doesn’t happen often, but occasionally networks will try and launch another new show in the fall to replace one that was DOA. Normally, this just leads to the second show also failing.

    It’s much more effective to use established shows (e.g. Mike & Molly, Rules of Engagement) as replacements for a quick failure. There’s limits to this, however, because networks usually want their established shows on the air every single week right out of the gate.

  • Dan S

    I would downgrade Elementary to tossup & upgrade TGW to likely renewal. TM I would put down as likely cancellation since it’s tied with Hostages as the lowest rated drama right now on CBS. I otherwise concur with the other shows current rankings.

  • Dan

    @Ultima – check again. That was my source, listings show that beyond Nov 25 new episodes are expected to air Dec 2 and 16 presumably along with new eps of CBS’s other comedies since they take a break on Dec 9. However it’s entirely possible that CBS could just finish the series off and air new eps in that slot on Dec 9, 23 and 30.

    Either way it seems more likely that they will keep Hostages on the schedule.

    As for what will air Mondays at 10 until Intelligence premieres. CBS has 6 remaining Unforgettable episodes they could air Jan-Feb or they could simply move up the premiere of Intelligence.

  • Dan

    @Dan S – Nahh CBS would be stupid to cancel Elementary. It isn’t doing horribly and it would be the first time since Shark that CBS would cancel a show after 2 full seasons. Elementary is fine.

    The Good Wife and The Mentalist will be the veteran cancellations in May. I cant see CBS cancelling any other veteran dramas. So Blue Bloods and Hawaii 5-0 are both safe for a fifth season to get over 100 eps as are CSI and Elementary.

    Besides the veteran sunday dramas, the only other dramas cancelled will probably be new dramas Hostages, Intelligence and Reckless. Hostages is a flop and I cant see midseason dramas Reckless or Intelligence improving on the timeslot or any timeslots they’re in. And if renewed it would be the first time since The Unit that CBS renewed a midseason drama, and that show was a hit. My guess is CBS would rather work on developing new dramas for next season then bringing back Subpar midseason shows.

  • The Colonel

    Hostages is an entertaining show, but it has more ridiculous plot holes than I can keep up with. For instance wouldn’t a doctor who is about to operate on the president have around the clock secret service protection? Anyway beyond that even if it were doing well I couldn’t possibly see where a second season would go, they don’t really have very far for this season to go. It’s the same reason Prison Break bombed after the first season. It was supposed to be a one off season, but was so popular they extended it, but they had nowhere to go with it.

  • CBSviewer

    After last week this is what I think will happen:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    8:30 – The Millers
    9:00 – NEW COMEDY
    9:30 – Mom
    10:00 – Charmed

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – CSI

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – The Crazy Ones
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – NCIS: New Orleans

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Undercover Boss
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Elementary
    10:00 – Person of Interest

    Thoughts ?

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