CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

bear-jet-ski

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Beauty And The Beast :cry: :cry: 0.37
The Carrie Diaries (F) :cry: :cry: 0.37
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.49
Reign :| :| :| 0.86
The Tomorrow People :) :) :) :) 0.99
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.48
Nikita final season

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The Carrie Diaries was one of the Cancellation Bear's notable misses last season (the other being Hannibal). It had woeful ratings, and yet was renewed. The best the bear can guess its that the CW didn't want to (or couldn't) premiere more than 3 new shows in the Fall and therefore had to hold over one more show from last season.

Regardless of the reason, the show's woeful premiere ratings this season mark it as likely to be canceled by the end of this season. Could the bear be wrong again? Stay tuned.

The bear's keeping Reign at a "toss up", even after its week two ratings decline. He's got plenty of time to move it down later. It's not going anywhere anytime soon.

With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders. Crazy fans, and anti-fans, who'd like to predict in the comments are welcome to.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Dillan

    TCD :(

  • Wright

    I’m still holding out hope for Reign. It’s a GREAT show.

  • jonay

    Is the Carrie Diaries only picked up for 13 episodes? so wouldn’t The CW have to replace it come Jan or Feb?

  • Tom

    “…the CW didn’t want to premiere ….”

    How about “…the CW didn’t have the budget to premiere….”?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “How about “…the CW didn’t have the budget to premiere….”?”

    Agreed! Added “or couldn’t”.

  • Mitchell

    @Tom

    Even for the major networks premiering four dramas at once is a bit much. The more new shows (and moves) you have, the more you have to promote them all, and the more likely that some will get lost in the muddle. ABC premiered four new dramas this season, and look how that turned out.

  • hammard

    I do wonder if Reign is going to do a Carrie Diaries this year, i.e. get renewed in order to be schedule filler. Unless something dramatic happens in either direction then I don’t think we’ll hear about it for a while now.

  • anon

    @jonay Yeah they have Starcrossed and The 100, and the last 6 eps of Nikita, waiting in the wings to premiere once TCD ends its 13 ep run, come Jan/Feb. Its obvious that the CW put TCD on Friday as a burn-off venture.

    Depending on how Reign, etc. do, I could see some schedule switching if the network doesn’t want to debut any of their new series on Fridays, to eventually replace TCD.

  • omabin

    The thing with Beauty and the Beast and The Carrie Diaries is that unless the cw wants something to fill in the 9pm slot on Fridays next year after America’s Next Top Model ends, they have no room on the schedule, so I don’t see how they could be kept. If one midseason show succeeds and the cw renews 3 shows as last year, then it is even more impossible.

  • Shepherd

    BaTB, TCD both cancelled. I am still waiting to see how Reign does in w.3, but like Bill says, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

  • Tom

    @ Omabin

    TCD could easily go the way of Life Unexpected because it will only have accumulated 26 episodes by the end of its current run. The bigger issue is whether the CW wants to take the financial hit associated with walking away from 44 completed episodes of BATB.

  • PurpleDrazi

    LOL! Love that pic. The bear will go to any lengths to track down his shows.

    As for the CW, I agree TCD are gone at the end of the year but I’m too chicken to speculate about anything else. The CW is just to different from the other networks to figure out and I’ve been burnt by them many times before.

  • Scandalicious

    Honestly I think the Carrie Diaries has a better shot at renewal than Beauty and the Beast. Carrie is at least a Friday show. Although both are probably really cheap to make. I hope that after the World Series all the CW shows tick up. They were on such a roll and it is sad to see everything drop this past week. The Originals and The Tomorrow People are still holding up well though! If Reign can rise a little it will be safe as well.

  • Wright

    The World Series will most likely still be going on Thursday, so that may not help Reigns ratings. Also, Thursday is Halloween. I think week 4 will be the real test.

  • WHugoP

    I don’t think that TCD will be cancelled, at least, not for now. Beauty & the Beast is doing same, but on mondays, wich means that BaTB is doing as bad as TCD or worst. About the new shows, I’m hoping a renewal for Tomorrow People, I really like the show and is the only one on the CW that I’m keeping up with (besides Hart of Dixie and Nikita). Let’s see how that goes.

  • Ultima

    This may have been posted already, but in case anyone missed it, here’s the awesome episode titles for Nikita this season:

    Wanted
    Dead or Alive
    Set-Up
    Pay-Off
    Bubble
    Canceled

    :lol:

  • Melissa

    Renew Reign-please and thank you.

  • Jon

    @ultima
    Funny lol. Though i will not say Nikita being cancelled since it will end like all the shows that got additional episodes to tell its complete story like Fringe, Gossip Girl, Prison Break ect.. So i would say “ended” or “final season” like here ;-)

  • THE OLD MAN

    The Carrie Diaries is so gone!

  • Charmed

    @Ultima the writers sound bitter :D they should be grateful!

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