CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

bear-jet-ski

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Beauty And The Beast :cry: :cry: 0.37
The Carrie Diaries (F) :cry: :cry: 0.37
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.49
Reign :| :| :| 0.86
The Tomorrow People :) :) :) :) 0.99
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.48
Nikita final season

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The Carrie Diaries was one of the Cancellation Bear's notable misses last season (the other being Hannibal). It had woeful ratings, and yet was renewed. The best the bear can guess its that the CW didn't want to (or couldn't) premiere more than 3 new shows in the Fall and therefore had to hold over one more show from last season.

Regardless of the reason, the show's woeful premiere ratings this season mark it as likely to be canceled by the end of this season. Could the bear be wrong again? Stay tuned.

The bear's keeping Reign at a "toss up", even after its week two ratings decline. He's got plenty of time to move it down later. It's not going anywhere anytime soon.

With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders. Crazy fans, and anti-fans, who'd like to predict in the comments are welcome to.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Charmed

    @Marius why comment then?

  • iSayso

    No flames, you’re right.

  • iSayso

    Geezus, @Charmed:

    Look up top: (###) Comments – Add Yours! – with an EXCLAMATION MARK!!!

  • Charmed

    @¡Sayso what?

  • allfromthei

    @Timmy G

    What I mean is why not spread Arrow to Monday and have another stronger show to Friday (like Smallville or SPN) and see how the 4 or 5 strong shows that were orginally on from Tue-Thur would do helpong the weaker shows on Mon and Fri as lead ins?

  • eelna

    IMPORTANT

    For all New Yorker, TVD airs at 10 PM because of the Village Halloween Parade airing at 8 PM: Reign keeps at its regular slot.
    To all Reign fans: It is a test, if Reign is steady, without the TVD Lead-In. So watch it. I don’t want it to be canceled. Chances aren’t that high.

  • iSayso

    “Why comment then?”

    Because it clearly invites: (##) Comments – Add Yours! (with an EXCLAMATION MARK!)

    Better?

  • Anthony

    The thing with Beauty and the Beast and The Carrie Diaries is that unless the cw wants something to fill in the 9pm slot on Fridays next year after America’s Next Top Model ends, they have no room on the schedule, so I don’t see how they could be kept. If one midseason show succeeds and the cw renews 3 shows as last year, then it is even more impossible.

    The CW has plenty of room on the schedule to keep more shows around if it wants to (and can get the bosses to approve a bigger budget). Over the last few years Mark Pedowitz has made it known that he is looking to reduce the number of repeats/hiatuses that the network has. There are 35 weeks in the season and with 22 episode seasons, there are plenty of weeks that can be filled by shorter seasons of shows (a 10 episode season of Carrie Diaries for example could fill in during a hiatus of one of their shows, or fill the slot if they end a run in March). Plus as you mentioned, Fridays is wide open for more shows, Top Model takes up one slot for part of the season while the other slot is repeats.

  • JJA

    “Toss up” or not, Reign WILL get a full season.

    As for The Tomorrow People, it too will be a “toss up” soon enough. .9, .8, .7 — see a trend? Regardless, there will be a full season of this show as well.

  • feinn

    Wow Originals above Arrow and still no full season order
    Reign will get full season because its a network favorite
    Tommorow People may get picked up to keep Julie Plec happy
    BatB should be pulled until summer burnoff

  • Anthony

    Wow Originals above Arrow and still no full season order
    Reign will get full season because its a network favorite
    Tommorow People may get picked up to keep Julie Plec happy
    BatB should be pulled until summer burnoff

    All the freshman series are likely to receive a backorder (most likely in one big sweep). Reign is on the weakest footing, but I would still expect a few episodes at least to be added on. TP will be picked up because it is doing well in the ratings, not to keep anyone happy. Why pull BATB for a summer burnoff when they have empty slots on Friday, in season that they can burn it off in?

  • tommie

    Unless something drastic happens then I’ll say Tomorrow People is likely renewed. The Carrie Diaries and Beauty & The Beast are goners. Hart of Dixie will be pushed to Fridays next season for a fourth low-rated season.

    The true toss-up is Reign.

  • feinn

    @Anthony networks don’t wait to extend seasons unless they are disappointed …Arrow got full season right away last year…cw hasn’t had much success midseason so reasonsble to think new shows won’t do any better than fall shows

  • Michael

    They’ll move something like Originals to Mondays next fall to build up that night.

    They’ve ordered quite a few new pilot scripts, including a couple more period shows, plus plans for a SPN spinoff and the Flash. They could move their cheap reality shows to Friday and only need to fill four slots Mon-Th next fall.

    M- Originals
    T- Supernatural
    W- Arrow
    Th- TVD
    F- Reality

    One or two shows return, depending on how the pilots work out.

  • Anthony

    networks don’t wait to extend seasons unless they are disappointed …Arrow got full season right away last year…cw hasn’t had much success midseason so reasonsble to think new shows won’t do any better than fall shows

    Yes they do. Full season pickups and renewal announcements are basically a timing thing (to create good PR, or to hide bad PR- like announcing it around the same time as the cancelling of another new series). Especially the CW, which tends to announce all their back orders at the same time. In order to do that this season they would need to wait as Reign premiered two weeks later than the other new shows, and the CW obviously needs to make sure that it doesn’t crash and burn before the pick up.

  • Timmy G

    @allfromthei, two seasons ago Supernatural WAS on Friday, and yes, looking back it probably did help Nikita considerably, but its ratings were still bad (it had mostly .6′s that season and everyone thought for sure it was dead).

    The reason it left Friday was because it’s the 2nd or 3rd strongest show on the network. It’s more valuable on a main weekday. Arrow could go somewhere like Monday, sure, but it won’t happen until next season because Pedowitz is more interested in making sure Tuesday through Thursday is stable before taking a risk like that. The Originals and especially The Tomorrow People need to be nurtured for the next few months to make sure the Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s don’t implode.

  • Addy

    Wasn’t Reign supposed to be a limited short series

  • Brandy

    @Charmed yes I know they look at more than just ratings, but CD & BatB ratings are really lw sadly ,they’re the lowest on the network right now and networks cancel thier lowest rated shows.WhileCW ooks at other things besides ratings,ad revenue from ratings and syndication are still very important cw and are usually a network s biggest income source(cw has Netflix & Hulu deals too.)..I would be suprised if either made it to syndication. If CW didn’t care about at all, they wouldn’t cancel any shows.

  • Kyle

    BATB and TCD are once again competing for a second year. Personally I’m rooting for BATB.
    Or would The CW cancel both?

  • Charmed

    @Brandy I guess it depends how well the new shows do, it’s early in the season and all 3 could fall by May. IMO the only new show with a guaranteed renewal is TO, TTP and Reign haven’t stabilized yet, and the mid season shows could both flop. Nikita is ending this season, and there will probably be another 2 or 3 cancellations, maybe more, The CW are unpredictable. I just think TCD has a chance because of it’s success online, and okay for Friday ratings.

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