CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

bear-jet-ski

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Beauty And The Beast :cry: :cry: 0.37
The Carrie Diaries (F) :cry: :cry: 0.37
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.49
Reign :| :| :| 0.86
The Tomorrow People :) :) :) :) 0.99
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.48
Nikita final season

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The Carrie Diaries was one of the Cancellation Bear's notable misses last season (the other being Hannibal). It had woeful ratings, and yet was renewed. The best the bear can guess its that the CW didn't want to (or couldn't) premiere more than 3 new shows in the Fall and therefore had to hold over one more show from last season.

Regardless of the reason, the show's woeful premiere ratings this season mark it as likely to be canceled by the end of this season. Could the bear be wrong again? Stay tuned.

The bear's keeping Reign at a "toss up", even after its week two ratings decline. He's got plenty of time to move it down later. It's not going anywhere anytime soon.

With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders. Crazy fans, and anti-fans, who'd like to predict in the comments are welcome to.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Brandy

    @youre right it does depen on how the new shows do but also, how many new shows get renewed for next season.I and how many pilots they pick up for next season.I hope CD survives cause I like it(I also like BatB) ,I was pleasantly surprised when it/they were renewed but am expecting them to be cancelled

  • Charmed

    The Carrie Diaries was added to Netflix a few days ago!

  • tommie

    @Kyle I don’t think TCD and BatB are fighting it out at all – they’re both likely to be cancelled.

    The unlikely save for either show is if the CW wants another Friday show to go along with Hart of Dixie when they inevitably sends it to die on Fridays next season. I’d say TCD has the slightly higher chance then, since they already made it the most unlikely renewal of the last season.

  • Charmed

    I usually don’t do this, but here’s what I think they should do next season

    MONDAY
    8pm The Tomorrow People
    9pm Supernatural

    TUESDAY
    8pm The Originals
    9pm NEW SHOW

    WEDNESDAY
    8pm Arrow
    9pm NEW SHOW

    THURSDAY
    8pm The Vampire Diaries
    9pm Beauty and the Beast

    FRIDAY
    8pm Hart of Dixie
    9pm The Carrie Diaries

    Let’s face it, TVD isn’t a good lead in for a new show, so why not try to salvage a show close to syndication? HOD and TCD would make a good pair, I’ve always thought this as they are the only non genre shows on the network. Supernatural and TTP should try to spice up Monday’s, SPN does good no matter what timeslot it airs, and if TO holds up it could anchor Tuesday. Again, use Arrow to launch a new show, as so far it seems quite a good lead in. The only concerns I have is where new shows could air at Midseason.

  • Kate

    Maybe it’s because I don’t watch and/or care about any of the shows on the CW anymore, or maybe it’s the fact that Nikita is in its final season so there are no crazy debates over it, but the CW renew/cancel posts are a lot less fun this year.

    BATB is definitely gone, TCD is most likely gone. Reign is in danger because it’s so expensive to produce/make that it has to make some kind of profit that makes it worth keeping around. I could see a show with lower demo ratings being renewed over it because it makes the network more money.

    The only shoo-ins to me are SPN, TVD and Arrow. TO and TTP are doing well enough to be renewed now, but there’s still the chance they’ll have TSC and Ringer-esque ratings meltdowns. Plus, there are two midseason new shows waiting in the wings.

  • Tom

    @ Charmed

    “I usually don’t do this….”

    And with good reason. Nothing about that lineup makes any sense. Especially coming from someone who regularly participates in this forum. So, let’s characterize your effort as satire and move on.

  • Charmed

    @Tom sorry… sheesh!

  • Charmed

    Some people here can be downright offensive!

  • Tom

    @ Charmed

    BATB fans need tough love.

  • caaniik

    @Charmed

    Tom is right, your fantasy-schedule will stay fantasy, since at least the half of it doesn’t make any sense.

  • What do you think, Tom?

    2014-2015:

    MONDAY
    8pm New Sci-fi/Fantasy drama
    9pm Supernatural Spin-off

    TUESDAY
    8pm The Originals
    9pm Supernatural

    WEDNESDAY
    8pm Arrow
    9pm The Tomorrow People

    THURSDAY
    8pm The Flash
    9pm The Vampire Diaries (Final Season. Cast contracts are up, and the stars have indicated they want to move on.)

    FRIDAYS
    8pm Hart of Dixie (Final 6/10/13 Episodes)/Holdover spackle (BATB, Reign, TCD, whatever.)
    9pm ANTM/Holdover spackle (BATB, Reign, TCD, whatever.)

  • Charmed

    @Tom I’m not even that big of a BATB fan, I just thought the CW was basically a syndication factory

  • John K.

    This idea that Hart of Dixie will automatically get renewed, even if it constantly gets about half the A18-49 numbers of the other shows is absurd. Body of Proof (ABC), Happy Endings (ABC), Veronica Mars (CW), Arrested Development (FOX), 8 Simple Rules (ABC), Hope & Faith (ABC), Lie To Me (Fox) (should I go on?) will beg to differ with you that Season 3 guarantees a Season 4. Just saying’.

  • Charmed

    @John K with the exception of 8 Simple Rules and Hope & Faith, all of these shows were further away from syndication than most third season shows

  • DM

    @John K
    Most of those shows did not have 3 full seasons when they were cancelled so it would have taken more than one more season to reach 88 episodes for syndication. The fact that Nikita was renewed last season should tell you just how strong the syndication factor is.

  • Jenna

    So I have never followed a show on CW. But I recently fell in love with Hart of Dixie thanks to Netflix. I hope it sticks around for season 4! Very cute show!

  • Charmed

    @Jenna Indeed it is! There’s not many shows like that these days :( If you liked that, you should definitely try The Carrie Diaries, it was added to Netflix a few days ago :)

  • Tom

    @ Charmed

    ” I just thought the CW was basically a syndication factory”

    So do I. That’s why I’m hedging my bets about whether BATB gets cancelled. But, the CW isn’t going to throw away a prime mid-week spot on its schedule to keep BATB going. If it survives, they’d likely sacrifice it to the competition on Monday or exile it to Fridays.

  • Amy

    TCD should be cancelled. Make a spin off about Samantha instead.

    Reign’s premiere was awful. I was expecting more and was disappointed. Good premise; bad execution.

  • Lyla

    People making schedules for next year we still have The 100
    and Star crossed

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