CW: 'The Carrie Diaries' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 29th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

bear-jet-ski

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Beauty And The Beast :cry: :cry: 0.37
The Carrie Diaries (F) :cry: :cry: 0.37
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.49
Reign :| :| :| 0.86
The Tomorrow People :) :) :) :) 0.99
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.48
Nikita final season

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The Carrie Diaries was one of the Cancellation Bear's notable misses last season (the other being Hannibal). It had woeful ratings, and yet was renewed. The best the bear can guess its that the CW didn't want to (or couldn't) premiere more than 3 new shows in the Fall and therefore had to hold over one more show from last season.

Regardless of the reason, the show's woeful premiere ratings this season mark it as likely to be canceled by the end of this season. Could the bear be wrong again? Stay tuned.

The bear's keeping Reign at a "toss up", even after its week two ratings decline. He's got plenty of time to move it down later. It's not going anywhere anytime soon.

With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders. Crazy fans, and anti-fans, who'd like to predict in the comments are welcome to.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Timmy G

    @What do you think, there’s a 95 percent chance TVD won’t end. Yes their contracts are up but I expect the CW to shell out the mega dollars to get the main 3 to sign on for season 7 (100,000 per episode range wouldn’t be out of the question, potentially even more). I do remember Nina Dobrev being vocal about it though, so that’s why the 5 percent remains. Also, I suspect several of the supporting players might leave. I do think it’s time for the show to move to 9 PM though. Clearly when over half of your viewers leave after TVD having a lead out is a bad idea.

  • MIchael

    If the Cw wants 4 solid nights Monday through Thursday
    and Friday can be the dump/burnoff
    Mondays
    The tommorow people 8/7c
    Supernatural 9/8c
    Good pair!
    Tuesdays
    The Spinoffs
    The originals 8/9c
    Supernatual spinoff 9/8c
    or new show
    Wednesdays
    Arrow 8/7c
    The 100 9/8c
    then replaced with new limited series
    durring mid-season
    Thursdays
    The vampire diaries 8/7c
    Reign 9/8c
    If its a limited series and doesnt get full order and gets renewed for season 2 they can replace the show with star crossed durring mid season unless if both reign and star crossed get canceled they can put a new show for next year
    Fridays
    ‘The Dump’ ‘Burn off’
    8/7c Hart of dixie
    9/8c only if Batb or TCD get renewed but they probably wont unless 1 makes it and they will have this spot
    They shouldnt put Hart of dixie next to any new show unless its batb and TCD anywhere on the schedule for next year because Hod with new show following it New show = dead. Look at cult.

  • Dahne

    @Ultima – Bwah! That post needs to come with a warning though. I had just taken a drink of water. :-P

  • Dahne

    @Timmy G – Two years ago (season 7), Supernatural only had one 0.6 in demo. It fluctuated between 0.8 and 0.7 all season long. The last time Supernatural fans were seriously worried about the show being renewed was in season 5, and that was partly because of the Kripke plan. Supernatural has never averaged 0.6’s.

  • Dahne

    @Michael – I rarely bet when it comes to the CW since they tend to least follow normal renewal/cancellation rules. However, I doubt highly that Reign will stay after TVD. Plus your schedule is missing the Arrow spin-off, Flash. Of all their pilot projects, this is the one that I predict will not only be picked up the earliest but I bet it gets the most promotion as well. It will be the Originals of next season.

    I have no problem with Supernatural moving to MOndays, as that is the only day the CW currently schedules that it has not been on. However, I doubt it will be paired with TTP. It will be paired with a new show. Since TTP will likely not be able to anchor a new show, I bet if it is renewed it will either stay where it is or be paired with the Originals.

  • cameron

    So far only the supernatural spin off and the colony seem like interesting pilots for next season

  • Amy

    @Timmy G No, I think they’re leaving after S6. The cast is young like the GG cast was and wants to do movies.

  • Kate

    @Amy

    I’d say there’s a real chance Nina Dobrev leaves, perhaps even if she’s offered great money. Otherwise, PW and (especially) IS might be fan favorites, but IMO they have far less a real chance of breaking out at this point, and they’re both quite a bit older than she is. Don’t mistake their snark for actual intent. The show would continue on–without a doubt–if anyone else left. Hell, it might even try to putter on without Nina if it’s still the top-rated show on the CW, even though it COULD NOT WORK creatively without her, given that the Elena/Katherine doppelganger story is the REAL center of the show.

    TVD’s ratings in S6 will almost certainly be a *lot* better than GG’s, BTW.

  • Timmy G

    @Dahne, I was talking about Nikita, which averaged a .6 early in its second season. See my post on page 2, I’m well aware Supernatural was moved to Wednesday because of its strong performance.

    @Amy, Gossip Girl didn’t have the ratings TVD has. If it falls below a .7 next year then we can compare it to GG. The CW will pull out all the stops to get the main 3 to stay. Look at Supernatural. I imagine that show will go until at least season 11 now. The ratings for GG didn’t justify giving the show a larger budget for season 7 (hence larger paydays for the cast). But because of politics, there’s still a small chance any of them could leave.

  • eelna

    I love TVD and Nina Dobrev. But Elena is annoying and pretty much everybody hates her and the love triangle is annoying.
    Finish doppelganger story line and after season six, they can open up a new world or intodruce a new species. (Maybe Phantoms, and Angels, withh a new regular, who’ll bring a attitude to the show.
    So season 7 can happen, and pull better ratings, then this season or next season probably will pull.

  • Ember

    Does anyone know why CW doesn’t do sunday programming?

  • Amy

    You can’t compare SPN with TVD. The Stefan/Elena/Damon love triangle is what TVD is centered around. The CW will still have The Originals after TVD ends. Also even if GG had gotten a full S6 that cast didn’t want to sign on for more seasons; they were ready to leave.

  • gerry

    i realize tcd will likely get the ax, but i pulled for it last year and was in the minority that was right about it getting renewed. depending on how the network wants to go, it could easily use tcd as spackle to fill holes between other things. and tcd moving to .3 on friday isn’t too shabby, since batb is doing the same on monday (where i would point out carrie fluctuated between .4-.5).

    either way, we won’t hear anything on this until the spring. and WHY aren’t any of the original SATC cast doing cameos for the brand? i find that quite surprising.

  • Ember

    All of them hate it. None want to be associated with it.

  • Tom

    “Does anyone know why CW doesn’t do Sunday programming?”

    The CW didn’t have the money to compete with the major networks on weekends, especially Sundays. I don’t believe the CW ever broadcast programs on Saturdays, except morning cartoons. The CW gave Sundays back to its affiliates in 2009. That wasn’t a big deal because the CW hadn’t aired any new programs on Sundays since 2007. Abandoning Sundays gave the CW affiliates more flexibility in programing and allowed then to keep all their ad revenue instead of sharing it with the CW.

  • Dan

    The Carrie Diaries is this year’s, Life Unexpected. The series will not get anymore episodes than 13 and the finale will air either January 24 or 31.

    Beauty and the Beast will air out its full 22 episode season and likely move to Fridays but will probably be cancelled in May.

    Reign will probably get a full season or additional episodes but will not get a second season. Its VD retention is worse than Nikita, Secret Circle or BATB.

    Hart of Dixie unlike Nikita will get a full fourth season only because its cheaper to produce and its doing better on Mondays than Nikita did on Fridays.

    That being said I expect Supernatural, The Vampire Diaries, Arrow, Hart of Dixie, The Originals, and The Tomorrow People to all return next season.

  • Zach

    I love people who blame Hart of Dixie for Cults failure. It’s not that Hart is a bad lead in (even though it is) it’s that Cult was bad (and confusing) and didn’t have any audience crossover. I think one of the problems the CW is having with Hart is that they have had it in a different time slot every season. It’s never had a good lead in or the chance to sit and build a fanbase that will follow it. Don’t compare it to the moves Supernatural has had. That show obviously has a much stronger fan base that has had much longer to become attached to the show. Hart of Dixie is the little show that could, despite all the odds being stacked against it (low promotion, lowest rated premiere for a new show in 2010, bad lead in/no lead in, left on the CWs dead nights, being one of the only non-genre shows (glad everyone has stopped calling it a teen girl show, it never was) on the network) I have no doubt about a renewal and another move next season- to Fridays.

  • Brandy

    @Ember , they did2006-2007 but all the shows(CW Now, OnlineNation,Valentine,Life is Wild,Easy Money) all bombed so they gave it back to affiliates

  • Tom

    @ Zach

    You’re right about Cult. It was DOA. The opening rating was 0.3/0.86. So, clearly no one was interested. For what it’s worth, I believe that Star-Crossed has the potential to find itself in a similar situation.

    I get the impression that Hart will be around for a couple more seasons. It’s a silly program, but hardly offensive. It also has a passable (for the CW) female demo and, most importantly, Rachel Bilson is really cute and does a decent job handling the superficial storylines. So, while Hart may not be great art, I can see it doing well in syndication.

  • Crest

    TBTB, Reign or TCD likely will be cancelled to make way for Star crossed and the 100 midseason, TBAT & Reign are in the most danger because they got non Friday slots.

    Its a shame though for a new series that will be put after HOD, a crappy lead in at 0.4 its basically a death slot.

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