NBC: 'The Michael J Fox Show' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 5th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 3, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.68
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.75
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
The Michael J. Fox Show :cry: :cry: 0.86
Revolution :| :| :| 0.90
Dracula (F) :) :) :) :) 0.92
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.98
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
The Blacklist :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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NBC demonstrated that they're not reluctant to sweep out an entire class of rookie sitcoms. They did it last season (plus Whitney!).

Now the Cancellation Bear is predicting they'll do it again this season (at least for the sitcoms premiered so far this Fall).

Welcome to the Family has already been devoured by the bear, and Sean Saves The World is certain to be. Now the bear's moving The Michael J Fox Show to "likely to be canceled" as well.

Dracula's second episode ratings drop should worry fans, but it's still got a bit of a cushion before the bear gets within range. Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Anthony

    *(why they are pigheaded, for example, they saw last season a comedy with a drama story line doesn’t work (Go On, New Normal) and they try it again with Welcome in the Family)

    I can’t be completely sure that these shows were not wall to wall drama, as I did not watch any of those three shows, but are you implying that comedies cannot have any dramatic or serious or otherwise character development type story telling? It just has to be wall to wall jokes? Great sitcoms from over the ages (even multicamera ones) often deal with “dramatic” story lines.

  • Anthony

    Do shows get points for mentioning the network? Because MJF mentions it every chance it gets. Even though the character supposedly works for WNBC, the show has no issues with referring to it as NBC. If 30 Rock was able to milk that cow for 7 seasons, it’s not clear why MJF can’t do the same.

    The difference was that 30 Rock had comparatively decent ratings to other shows airing on the network at the time. MJF has horrid ratings no matter how you look at them. It rates below Parks, is on the same level as SSTW, and will certainly rate below the sitcoms that air after the Voice in the spring. No amount of free network branding will help (as the people watching the show already know it is on NBC, thus it doesn’t really gain the network anything- if they were some how able to incorporate ads for other network shows within the show, that would be “more” valuable but still ultimately futile).

  • Chris J

    I think we will see NBC wipe out their comedy lineup similar to last year again this May (only Community and Parks will remain).

    I have a feeling now though that both Revolution and Parenthood may have a chance.

    Both shows still get excellent DVR ratings which means both have a pretty big audience.

    In Revolution’s case if NBC can make a deal with an overseas broadcaster or even Netflix to coproduce 2 more full seasons of the show I think Revolution will be able to grow and continue to be a table performer.

    For Parenthood I could see NBC using the show to anchor a drama night on Sundays next year. It’s fan base obviously is willing to follow the show. NBC can utilize the fans to launch Sundays next year.

    The only freshman comedy with a chance is “About A Boy” from the reviews though it seems plain vanilla and basic. Let’s hope there are some laughs in it though, unlike NBC’s other “comedies”.

  • Chris J

    @StevenD

    I agree MJF Show’s only chance is to be re-scheduled to air at 9:30pm Tuesdays after About A Boy and The Voice.

    That would be a good pairing IMO.

  • Chris J

    Monday
    The Voice
    NEW DRAMA

    Tuesday
    About A Boy
    NEW FAMILY COMEDY
    The Voice
    Blacklist

    Wednesday
    Chicago Fire
    SPACE RACE: NEW REALTY SHOW
    Chicago PD or Night Shift

    Thursday
    Biggest Loser
    NEW TINA FEY COMEDY
    Parks (final)/Community (final)
    Law and Order: SVU

    Friday
    Dateline
    Grimm
    Revolution

    With this schedule NBC would only have 4 new shows debuting in the fall. Also overall ratings should stabilize with much stronger programming replacing the current weak slate. For the Spring, Parenthood can anchor Sundays.

    Sunday (midseason)
    Dateline
    Parenthood (final)
    NEW DRAMA

  • Dan

    While Parenthood’s 90 episodes are good enough for a syndication deal, my guess is NBC will give it a short “Chuck” or “30 Rock” like 13 episode final season for next fall in order to bridge it for another drama midseason. Same with Parks & Rec. I wouldn’t be too worried about it.

    Sean Saves the World will likely get a full season or 17 episodes after next week. The show wil have aired 9 episodes by December, A full season will allow the series to have 13 episodes paired with Undateable. Both series could move to Tuesdays and MJF show could move to 9 and Growing Up Fisher and About a Boy could timeshare 9:30.

    This is a possibility

    January-May

    Thursday
    8:00 Community
    8:30 Parks & Recreation
    9:00 The Michael J Fox Show
    9:30 Growing Up Fisher (Jan-Mar)/ About a Boy (April-May) or Vice Versa
    10:00 Parenthood

    Tuesday
    8:00 The Voice
    9:00 Sean Saves the World
    9:30 Undateable
    10:00 Chicago Fire

    or

    Thursday
    8:00 Community
    8:30 Parks & Recreation
    9:00 Sean Saves the World
    9:30 Undateable
    10:00 Parenthood

    Tuesday
    8:00 The Voice
    9:00 The Michael J FOX Show
    9:30 About a Boy / Growing Up Fisher
    10:00 Chicago Fire

    I’m not sure if NBC will stick to their plan of airing 2 new comedies post Voice. Also will The Voice premiere in February or March? Does the Biggest Loser have another cycle? Will Revolution air a split season again freeing up the 8pm Wednesday hour? Will the Blacklist split its order like Revolution did last spring?

    NBC should release their midseason plans by the end of November. We know that Chicago PD will replace Ironside and air Wed at 10 and Community will comeback to Thursdays but there are other things we do not yet know.

  • Anthony

    With this schedule NBC would only have 4 new shows debuting in the fall. Also overall ratings should stabilize with much stronger programming replacing the current weak slate. For the Spring, Parenthood can anchor Sundays.

    Yeah but they would also have to promote the moves of five returning shows to new nights (as well as several moves within current nights of comedies). That is far to much change in one season to effectively promote (basically the only part of your schedule that would remain consistent is the Voice and Grimm). Plus Parenthood launching a new drama on Sundays? That’s doomed to fail, Parenthood’s ratings aren’t at a level anymore to launch a new show, especially on a Sunday (although I could see it being moved there, it won’t be to launch a new show, just to give it a final farewell).

  • Anthony

    I’m not sure if NBC will stick to their plan of airing 2 new comedies post Voice. Also will The Voice premiere in February or March? Does the Biggest Loser have another cycle? Will Revolution air a split season again freeing up the 8pm Wednesday hour? Will the Blacklist split its order like Revolution did last spring?

    They are very likely going to stick with the plan of two comedies after the Voice. NBC needs to find a comedy that sticks and airing after the Voice gives them the best shot at this point (trying to launch shows of Thursday failed this fall, what’s the likelihood it succeeds mid season?) Parks and Community fill the 8pm hour on Thursdays, and MJF plus another comedy will fill the 9pm slot the rest of the season. The Voice will be back in March (the Olympics are airing in February). Also, absolutely no chance SSTW or MJF end up after the Voice, that’s ridiculous to even suggest that.

  • Chris J

    @Anthony

    I could be wrong, but didn’t NBC move as many shows this season as I moved in my fantasy schedule?

    For NBC this season, the only shows that kept their slot were The Voice, SVU, and Grimm. In my perspective, schedule, The Voice, Chicago PD, and Grimm would keep their perspective slots and Parks would move back to it’s old slot at 9:30pm.

    But regardless, another benefit for NBC this year in general is they may be able to renew a few more dramas than they did last year, so that will also help stabilize their schedule.

  • Anthony

    @Chris J

    This season NBC only moved 3 veteran shows to new days (well I guess actually 4 if you count Biggest Loser- but it was moved back to it’s traditional Tuesday airing) plus they moved Parks to a new time (but same day). In addition NBC premiered 5 new shows this season (although 3 of those were comedies airing in the same block, meaning they are a little easier to promote than say premiering three new shows on different days). NBC wasn’t particularly successful in doing this. Out of their shows that they moved, Revolution, and Parenthood have significantly lower ratings than last season (it was likely they would drop after removing the Voice halo, but they have fallen pretty hard), and Chicago Fire has higher ratings (which was obviously going to happen by virtue of being on after the Voice). Out of the new shows they premiered Blacklist is a hit, SSTW and MJF are failing miserably, and WTTF and Ironside are already cancelled. Do you really think they can effectively move more shows than this season (without killing their ratings), and also premiere almost as many shows as this season (while having them be successful)?

  • JakeWisconsin

    How many dramas is NBC likely to renew? What do you think will happen with Revolution and Parenthood (The two shows I watch on NBC)?

  • anotherhour

    I know it’s a summer show, but does anyone know the status of NBC’s Siberia? I can’t seem to find any info on whether its been renewed or canceled, I’m assuming the latter

  • Dan

    @JakeWisconsin – Those 2 dramas are bubble right now. What will happen with Revolution is really more how it does in the spring then fall. Right now its only doing OK. Its really 50/50 but it depends on Spring ratings since it has a full season. By comparison Parenthood is a veteran nearing the end of its life. The series is doing OK enough to get a nice short 13 episode final season, like NBC gave Chuck and 30 Rock, to both get the show over 100 episodes and give it closure. NBC can and likely will do that.

    NBC will renew the dramas that do well, most certainly SVU, Chicago Fire, Grimm and The Blacklist and its too early to tell with Dracula but whether it does well or not its not getting a full season. NBC will likely make a decision by May but if it flops then its done.

    @Anthony – The only reaosn I suggest either SSTW or MJF ending up after The Voice is that NBC would likely want to save 1 of them plus another comedy. My guess would be that they are more likely to save one of those shows and air it behind the Voice than 2 completely new comedies. If MJF stays on Thursdays then its only hope would be that it moves up to 9pm and pairs with Growing Up Fisher and or About a Boy, then SSTW and Undateable could move to Tuesdays.

    MJF isn’t compatible at 9 and 9:30 with SSTW which may be another reason why both are failing. Multi cam shows usually do better paired together and same with Single cam shows. Community and Parks pair well together that 8 and 8:30. SSTW and Undateable would pair well maybe Tuesdays. MJF’s best shot would be to move up to 9pm instead of 9:30 as well.

    If SSTW and Undateable do move to Tuesdays that might work for NBC since besides The Voice lead in, multi cam shows might be a good change of pace in the 3 way comedy battle at 9pm. With That move both series could air their episodes straight through. (Not sure if Undateable has 13 episodes or maybe 7)

    If MJF moves up to 9pm and NBC airs either Growing Up Fisher and About a Boy at 9:30, they could essentially have that half hour repeat free Jan-May.

    There’s a lot of different combinations NBC could do, I’m curious to see their midseason schedule.

  • Chris J

    @Martine

    I like Dracula, but I have a feeling it won’t get renewed. If it does though it could still work in my schedule:

    Friday:

    Revolution
    Grimm
    Dracula

    Dateline can go on hiatus during Dracula since it’s a limited series anyway.

  • Jazz

    We watch both Grimm and Revolution. Actually we normally watch Grimm, Revolution and Community (whenever it airs). I sampled others on NBC but they usually don’t stick around (The Event, Undercovers, Deception) Oh, I forgot, we also watch Blacklist. I think this is the most NBC I have watched in years. Also caught like the first few episodes of Sean Saves… and MJF.

  • Jazz

    Oh and Dracula. But, the faves are Community, Grimm and Revolution (sort of). It has really improved this year.

    Also watched Sleepy Hollow on FOX.

  • Jazz

    Oh and Dracula. But, the faves are Community, Grimm and Revolution (sort of). It has really improved this year.

    Also watch Sleepy Hollow on FOX.

  • veronica

    I like Dracula!! The theme of Dracula opposing the evil underworld when he himself clearly performs evil deeds is intriguing. The future romance between him and his beloved form the past is going to be tender and kinda wicked. Love it!

  • k:Alex

    @Anthony
    I say they put on drama series comedy labels.

    I like it when characters are realistic, that’s why I watch most of the time single-cam comedy.
    But for a good laughter, I watch a repeat of Frasier, Seinfeld or Friends on Comedy central (the Dutch one), especially Frasier is a good example of how to make a multicam (in my opinion).

  • Michael1

    @Ultima

    “Also, they can’t air The Big Bang Theory twice a week for an extended period of time. They effectively have 72 airings per calendar year…”

    Why is there a limit? Is it something official, or is it some arbitrary benchmark to prevent it from being watered down? Given that the show is only 30 minutes long, it would get far less air time with 72 episodes than an hour-long show would get wtih 52 episodes.

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