ABC: 'Last Man Standing' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


BearSign_L

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
Betrayal :oops: 0.49
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.50
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.60
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.66
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.71
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.82
Nashville :| :| :| 0.83
Back In The Game canceled, will air remaining episodes 0.92
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 0.96
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Super Fun Night :oops: 1.14
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.55
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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Since it's a third season show not produced by ABC, the Cancellation Bear is inclined (but not compelled, as if it were produced by ABC) to predict renewal for Last Man Standing from the start of the season, but a wanted to wait a few weeks for results. Its initial weeks against new broadcast competition weren't encouraging, so the bear kept his prediction for the show at a "toss up".

In the last 2 weeks the show has recovered to a relative ratings level that indicates renewal for a Friday show, particularly one with a  production company motivated to go low on its license fee if necessary to grab that 4th season and get the show enough episodes produced for stripped syndication.

Also, while the cancellation bear still expects the syndication gods will save Revenge, he's no longer certain they will, given its relative ratings tumble. The bear has adjusted the show's prediction down to "likely to be renewed".

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Nerdbot

    Revenge’s current ratings makes my eyes bleed. I hope it doesn’t go any lower after last week’s series low. I’d hate to see it going from “certain to be renewed” to “toss up” or worse.

  • M

    If you downgraded revenge why does it have 5 smileys

  • Seth

    100% chance Revenge is renewed. Shouldn’t even be up for debate. 3rd season shows get 4th seasons.

  • Sean

    Still I find it pretty weird that Once Upon A Time in Wonderland is getting such lower ratings compered with the parent show. It seems it really has to do with the timeslot.

  • Ultima

    @Bill Gorman
    Also, while the cancellation bear still expects the syndication gods will save Revenge, he’s no longer certain they will, given its relative ratings tumble. The bear has adjusted the show’s prediction down to “likely to be renewed”.

    So he says, but the table tells a different story! ;)

    Also, is that bear just walking with the hikers? Is that meant to be a clever reflection on the status of CBS shows? You don’t need to out run the bear, simply walking a brisk pace is probably good enough! :D

  • Jeff (Canada)

    I think Agents of SHIELD will be the only freshman show to see a season 2.

  • Ultima

    Oh wait, nevermind, this is the ABC thread (I’m really tired) :(

    In that case, the bear walking with the hikers is just a ridiculous warning sign (or you should change it with the CBS pic before someone notices!)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “So he says, but the table tells a different story!”

    Last minute table editing problems strike again!

    “Also, is that bear just walking with the hikers? Is that meant to be a clever reflection on the status of CBS shows? You don’t need to out run the bear, simply walking a brisk pace is probably good enough!”

    The way the bear feels some days, a brisk walk would be plenty.

  • Bradley

    ABC needs a huge overhaul of its schedule if they hope to not be in shambles by May.

  • dantas

    Hello, folks. How are you?

    Yesterday, some of you tried to convince me that even if Revenge goes under 1.0, The Almighty Syndication Gods would bring it back. I doubted their powers and regretfully said that I still needed a little more convincing. I even learnt somethings about Syndication I didn’t know.

    Today, however, the Cancellation Bear acknowledged the show may not come back next season if it keeps tumbling down. Now, with the Bear on my side,I have reached a conclusion, which I believe The ASG will agree with:

    Revenge will come back next season ONLY IF it doesn’t hit multiple 1.0s or lower before this season ends. And by “multiple” I mean 4 or more episodes. If it does, ABC will do all it can to reach a deal with some channel who’d accept only three seasons of the show on Syndication.

  • gerry

    @ bradley

    agreed.

    they need to plug the sunday night hole with some reality tv and quick, and get revenge in a different slot. even the 10 pm would be better than the 9 when EVERYTHING is airing.

    i don’t see it bleeding much more than this (i hope that isn’t wishful thinking) so i would still venture its pretty safe for a s4 final season renewal.

  • Dan S

    I’m not firmly convinced that syndication alone will save Revenge. Even if it was moved back to Wed what are the chances of its ratings rebounding ? A heavily serialized drama is not worth saving if people don’t come back.

  • Scandalicious

    I just wish Trophy Wife could find some traction. It really is one of the best new comedies this season and ABC is letting it (and The Goldbergs – which has potential in my book) dry up on Tuesday nights. I am also pulling for Nashville this week. I hope it can rise a bit.

    I am really curious to see ABC’s complete midseason schedule. If there isn’t at least a little bit of a schedule shuffle I would be really surprised and it would be a huge missed opportunity. I think Revenge, Trophy Wife, The Goldbergs and Once Upon a Time in Wonderland could all really benefit from a schedule shift. Nashville could benefit also if it could get a better/more compatible lead in than Super Fun Night.

  • Davide De Rea

    “Since it’s a third season show not produced by ABC, the Cancellation Bear is inclined (but not compelled, as if it were produced by ABC) to predict renewal for Last Man Standing from the start of the season, but a wanted to wait a few weeks for results. Its initial weeks against new broadcast competition weren’t encouraging, so the bear kept his prediction for the show at a “toss up”.”

    I asked a similar question in the CBS r/c comments section: Why does it matter if it’s produced by ABC? The network still makes money from ad sales and the production company still makes money from syndication. The money still goes to the same places, only the process is slightly different.

  • Ted Craig

    I read once that ABC execs were never confident Revenge could sustain itself from season to season.

  • Michael

    Sean, we tried to give it a chance but couldn’t tolerate the cartoonish queen and juvenile tone. We quit after only 1 episode. We still enjoy OUAT, usually.

  • THE OLD MAN

    I’m rooting for the syndication gods to not save Revenge!

    Rules are meant to be broken dagnabit!

  • JaredK

    @Davide De Rea

    It matters because it’s a question of opportunity cost. When a show is produced by a company outside of the corporate family of the network that airs the show, negotiations over the licensing fee come in to play. 20th Century Fox, which produces Last Man Standing, obviously wants to produce a fourth season of the show for syndication purposes. Consequently, they are most likely willing to sell a fourth season of the show to ABC at a greatly reduced licensing fee, even if that means taking a loss up front. They would just hope to make that money up on the back end via syndication. Because LMS is doing OK in the ratings on Fridays, ABC is likely to renew the show as long as the licensing fee is low enough. Better to have a low-rated but known-to-be-steady performer on that night as long as it doesn’t cost too much, rather than scheduling a new show there that might tank. However, if ABC believed that 20th Century Fox was asking too much in licensing fees for a 4th Season – or they believed that they had another show that would perform better in that timeslot and didn’t have room to schedule LMS elsewhere – they would cancel the show, syndication prospects or not, and 20th Century Fox would have to shop a 4th season of LMS elsewhere.

    Contrast this with a show like Revenge, which is produced and owned by ABC itself. Because the show is both produced and aired by the same corporate entity, ABC can do anything that it wants to make a 4th Season of Revenge profitable simply by performing internal accounting tricks. Whatever that entails – slashing the show’s budget to the bare minimum, firing expensive cast members, or ordering only a short final season of 13 episodes or less – ABC has complete control. It’s simply one less administrative hurdle that they have to jump through.

    Now, that hurdle isn’t very high, and more than likely both shows will be back on ABC next fall. But when everything else is equal, the difference between an internally-produced show and an externally-produced show can drive a network’s decision.

  • FRED

    @Sean,

    I totally agree. I’m enjoying Wonderland immensely . Some eps are even better than the original. The last ep centering on Jafar was the best one yet.

    @Michael. Wonderland gets so much better than the pilot. Each successive ep improves over the previous. Give it another chance.

    Such a shame that Revenge is hitting lows, while the show is on fire creatively. EW mag recently recommended it again after bashing it last season.

    The original OUAT is still entertaining, but Neverland quickly bored me. Not quite as magical as I imagined.

  • dantas

    @THE OLD MAN,

    High-five!

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