ABC: 'Last Man Standing' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


BearSign_L

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
Betrayal :oops: 0.49
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.50
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.60
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.66
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.71
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.82
Nashville :| :| :| 0.83
Back In The Game canceled, will air remaining episodes 0.92
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 0.96
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Super Fun Night :oops: 1.14
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.55
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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Since it's a third season show not produced by ABC, the Cancellation Bear is inclined (but not compelled, as if it were produced by ABC) to predict renewal for Last Man Standing from the start of the season, but a wanted to wait a few weeks for results. Its initial weeks against new broadcast competition weren't encouraging, so the bear kept his prediction for the show at a "toss up".

In the last 2 weeks the show has recovered to a relative ratings level that indicates renewal for a Friday show, particularly one with a  production company motivated to go low on its license fee if necessary to grab that 4th season and get the show enough episodes produced for stripped syndication.

Also, while the cancellation bear still expects the syndication gods will save Revenge, he's no longer certain they will, given its relative ratings tumble. The bear has adjusted the show's prediction down to "likely to be renewed".

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Dan

    Revenge will get a full fourth season as will Nashville a third. Don’t let Revenge’s drop concern anyone. When Football is done, by March it will bounce back, it always does. ABC isn’t going ro cancel Revenge and Nashville and just be stuck with Grey’s, Castle, Scandal, OUAT and SHIELD next season.

    As for Last Man Standing, the show is doing decently even for fridays standards so its not considered a struggling third season show. That reason alone will get it a full fourth season, especially considering it has a full third season now.

  • dantas

    @Dan,

    Do you really see Revenge getting another 22 episodes if it hits some 1.0s and 0.9s this season?

    ABC will cancel Nashville and stick with Last Man Standing, Grey’s, Castle, Scandal, OUAT, S.H.I.E.L.D. if they stay near the channel’s average – which they all have. And will premiere new shows as usual.

    Please, stop the drugs.

  • FRED

    Anybody who gave up on REVENGE last season should just jump in this season. Very easy to catch on because the new writers cut loose all of the boring storylines from last season (The INITIATIVE and the STOWAWAY bar plot) and focusing on the core characters and relationships like a good night time serial.

  • dantas

    @Dan,

    I meant: Please, stop with the drugs.

  • TVDude

    OUAT is still relatively high up in that chart… which means ABC must be having a bad year for the most part.

    LMS never really seemed to be much in question (IMO). I’ve learned not to go too crazy at first with fall shows as new shows often start well and end badly. As long as LMS holds where it’s at, it’s definitely not in any danger. Its a Friday show pulling ratings that NBC Thursday comedies are struggling to get.

  • Ultima

    @Dan
    When Football is done, by March it will bounce back, it always does.

    Nonsense.

    Fall 2012 – 3.2, 2.6, 2.6, 2.8, 2.7, 2.7, 2.5, 2.2, 2.4

    Jan/Feb 2013 – 2.4, 2.0, 1.7, 1.4, 1.8

    Spring 2013 – 2.0, 1.8, 1.8, 1.5, 1.7, 1.8, 1.7

    I could list plenty of other Sunday shows that show the same pattern, so don’t bother with the “but the hiatus will help” nonsense.

    The spring ratings hit is significantly higher than whatever negative effect football is having on the ratings (if any).

  • dantas

    @Dan,

    Listen to @Ultima and brace yourself, ’cause Spring is coming…

  • Contrarian

    At this rate Back in the Game might rise back up to .95 on the index once its last episode airs if it maintains that 1.7, especially if Tuesdays and Sundays continue to struggle :D Retention FTW

  • diana

    @dantas remember nikita? It tells u how powerful syndication could be don’t forget that that revenge did jump from a 1.4 to 1.7 last week whenever revenge hits it’s bottom it always bounces back up like 3 to 4 tenths back up and plus next week people will tune in out of curiosity to see who that person who came to the hamptons is just like how in episode 6 promo people tuned in to see if Nolan is dead. Revenge is the type of show that could easily bounce back up

  • MARTY

    dantas bill and ultima never doubt the syndication gods. lol

  • Scott M

    Bill,
    With it’s ratings recently and all the other comedies impending doom I was going to post here that you should change Last Man Standing to at least likely to be renewed…. of course you had to beat me to it. Now I’ve got no predictions to complain about from any of the networks. What’s the fun in that?

  • dantas

    @Diana,

    Yes, Diana. The Almight Syndication Gods (ASG) are very, very, very powerful. But even they won’t tolerate the show hitting constant 1.0s or lower.

    Revenge is in no danger if it stays above 1.1. I’m sure it’ll rebound and I doubt it will fall to that point. But it can happen.

    Last season, by November, most fans doubted it would fall below 2.0 and stay under that mark. But it did.

  • diana

    @dantas well only time will tell but I doubt that it will fall to lucky 7 to betrayal levels

  • dantas

    @MARTY,

    We’re not doubting their force. But they’re keeping a closer watch on the show’s ratings.

    They even sent the Cancellation Bear to amek us all know they recognize Revenge’s cancellation by May 2014 as a possibility.

  • dantas

    @Diana,

    Last season, by November, most fans doubted Revenge would fall as low as a 2.0 and stay under that mark. But it did.

  • diana

    @dantas ABC is scheduling their shows differently this season by airing 12 episodes in a row and then taking a 3 month hiatus and plus ABC will promote these shows as if their starting new seasons maybe it will help revenge I’m not saying I’m sure but there is a possibility that it will come back strong when it’s back from the hiatus

  • diana

    Especially since revenge will have a major episode before the hiatus it always comes back strong after a major episode. At one point on body of proofs second season it jumped from a 1.2 to a 2.0 I’m not saying that I can jump that high but it is possible

  • omabin

    I disagree with quite a few things here:
    - The Neighbors: Likely cancelation, not certain. It’s not doing that bad relatively to the comedies once you add in a friday factor in most recent airings. Besides, it’s ABC owned and they have a history of making huge reaches to save their own comedies (Happy Endings vs Better with You, The Neighbors vs How to Live, Trophy Wife vs Back in the Game)
    - Trophy Wife: Likely cancelation: I don’t think the gap is big enough either. Consider as well that the show is produced by ABC and that it could be moved midseason
    - Last Man Standing: I think it’s actually a certain renewal.
    - Revenge: I still feel pretty safe saying it’s a certain renewal.

  • Ultima

    What kind of odds are people giving Revenge to keep its timeslot in March?

    I think ABC should move it to 10pm and give Resurrection a two-hour premiere; if it’s DOA, swap them back before Revenge returns.

  • MARTY

    dantas yes I have heard the word of the messenger the loyal bear and I am listening lol

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