ABC: 'Last Man Standing' Is Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


BearSign_L

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
Betrayal :oops: 0.49
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.50
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.60
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.66
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.71
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.82
Nashville :| :| :| 0.83
Back In The Game canceled, will air remaining episodes 0.92
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 0.96
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Super Fun Night :oops: 1.14
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.55
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.00

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Since it's a third season show not produced by ABC, the Cancellation Bear is inclined (but not compelled, as if it were produced by ABC) to predict renewal for Last Man Standing from the start of the season, but a wanted to wait a few weeks for results. Its initial weeks against new broadcast competition weren't encouraging, so the bear kept his prediction for the show at a "toss up".

In the last 2 weeks the show has recovered to a relative ratings level that indicates renewal for a Friday show, particularly one with a  production company motivated to go low on its license fee if necessary to grab that 4th season and get the show enough episodes produced for stripped syndication.

Also, while the cancellation bear still expects the syndication gods will save Revenge, he's no longer certain they will, given its relative ratings tumble. The bear has adjusted the show's prediction down to "likely to be renewed".

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • milo

    Bill, way to waffle on the Syndication Gods after weeks and weeks of insisting that third year shows always get renewed. I guess now at least you’re finally saying what people have been trying to tell you all along, there are limits to what the Syndication Gods will tolerate.

  • Bad Wolf

    Revenge may go down in History as THE 3rd season show which got cancelled.

    @THE OLD MAN

    Although we share a passion for The Good Wife, I’mm disappointed to see that you root for Revenge to be cancelled. ;-) I think it’s unfair when a show who is recovering creatively sees its ratings sinking, while others completely collapse and yet hits high with their numbers (see : Dexter).

    Am I the only one to be shocked (I mean, visually), by poor Super Fun Night lost among all the other green shining smileys ?

  • FRED

    NASHVILLE’S prospects are troublesome. Not just because its ratings are low but the scripts and music this year don’t compare to last. And it’s very difficult to get those lost viewers back (same with REVENGE) because it’s heavily serialized.
    I’m not giving up on it, because like REVENGE it has potential to be great again.

  • diana

    @badwolf I think your forgetting Nikita

  • dantas

    @diana,

    The CW should be considered an exception. Nikita’s 3rd season’s ratings sometimes were equal or higher than other lower rated shows in the channel, like Gossip Girl, Cult, The Carrie Diaries and 90210.

    Because of that (and its Syndication deal), it was given a short fourth season.

    Revenge is only higher than a couple of shows and it tends to fall on Spring. If it decides to hit multiple 1.0s, it’ll get cancelled by ABC, who will do all it can to find a channel who’d be ok with only 3 seasons (66 episodes) for a syndication deal.

    Of course, it is safe for now and I may be wrong. Maybe it won’t fall to those levels.

  • johnhelvete

    Ultima,
    Like the idea of trying Resurrection at 9pm after OUAT and moving Revenge to 10pm.

  • Adam Decker

    Why does Super Fun Night have only one smily when it was ranked with other certain to be renewed shows? That’s not saying that I don’t want it cancelled, I’m just confused by its placement.

  • SJ

    No chance Revenge gets cancelled whatsoever. The ratings, are, however, very underwhelming. I hope they get better so that it can at least keep its time slot in the spring.

    Not much else to comment on… Nashville should be likely cancellation by now. It’s a second season show that barely keeps its head above water and there have been reported production issues. I can’t see it returning.

    Is ABC really not cutting The Neighbors’ episode order?!

  • Ted Craig

    @SJ

    And replacing it with what? BiTG was the leading candidate.

  • Olive

    I think Wonderland is improving while OUAT is actually becoming less and less interesting — the concept is overplayed perhaps.

  • were123

    There is no chance in hell Revenge won’t be renewed for a 4th season. It’s reaching 66 episodes at the end of the season; the only 3rd season shows that have been canceled are those who had less than 66 episodes by the end of the season. CBS kept rating loser The Goof Wife, The CW renewed Nikita with pitiful ratings, FOX kept Fringe, NBC Chuck and Community, there is no indication ABC will do anything different, and it is even less likely they cancel the show if we consider Revenge is produced by ABC studio.
    The thing to ponder is this: will Revenge be moved from Sundays or stay in the smae night? There are four possible scenarios:
    1_Revenge move to Thursdays at 10PM, move Grey’s at 8PM and Scandal at 9PM. This is a logical move, as nothing at 8PM works for ABC, and as Grey’s has an established audience they have a shot at manteining those good ratings, Scandal could potentially grow from its already strong ratings at 10PM and inject them into Revenge.
    2_Revenge moves to Fridays: this would either mean it replaces Last Man Standing (either ala Happy Endings or outright cancelling LSM) or air at 10PM replacing 20/20. Highly unlikely, as ABC seems comfortable with its Friday night line up.
    3_Revenge goes back to its old timeslot on Wednesday at 10PM: which means Nashville is either cancelled or moved to Sundays after OUAT. I don’t think ABC will do this though.
    4_It stays on Sundays: if so, it’s highly likely that it either ends at season 4 or gets renewed for a shortened 5th season (ala Fringe, Chuck). This is likely to be the case, even if the best move (in my opinion) is the 1st one, as ABC should look for replacement on Revenge’s timeslot, and I don’t see them sampling 2 new dramas on Sundays.
    Whichever the case is, Revenge will have a 4th season; if that is the last or not doesn’t affect its current chances of renewal, which are 100%

  • David

    Last Man Standing has always been certain to be renewed. There is literally nothing short of Modern Family or The Middle that ABC could put Friday at 8 PM that would do better.

  • FRED

    @Olive

    I guess we are in the minority (see WONDERLAND’S ratings).
    I still find the original entertaining, but I see what you mean. How many times can characters constantly get lost only to end up back in Story Brooke. Last season it was lost in Fairytale Land, this season Neverland

  • John A

    Since Nikita didnt get a full fourth season i dont see Revenge getting one either. I mean a 1.3 this early is just horrible no matter what way you spin it. Id be fine seeing it end this season anyway if ABC told the showrunner. It kind of has a final season feel anyway. It probably will get some kind of 4th season like Nikita did.

  • will

    @Bad Wolf, CBS had a show in the late 90s/early 2000s called Family Law that was canceled after 3 Seasons. It IS possible.

  • Fabian

    Abc will air 3 episodes of Revenge in January, against the Golden Globes on sunday January 12th, and the AFC and NFC Championship Games on sunday January 19th, so expect too see new series lows. And they have probably an crappy 8pm show as lead-in, because Once upon a time is on hiatus. Stupid ABC :(

  • FRED

    ABC seems to have the most trouble spots.

    SUN, 7-8 and 9-11
    MON, 8-10
    TUES,9-11
    WED, 8:30-9, 9:30-11
    THURS,8-9
    FRI, 8:30-9

    OUCH, gonna be a long tough season again.

    And this is coming from an avid ABC viewer.

  • THE OLD MAN

    @ Bad Wolf

    My “passion” for THE GOOD WIFE has nothing to do with ABC (see my comment on CBS), nor am I rooting for Revenge to be canceled because of THE GOOD WIFE.

    I just want to see a show not saved by the ASG! I also saw that one frowny for SFN among all the green & had a good LOL!

  • Dan

    @Ultima – Resurrection airing at 9 would do worse than Revenge, remember Red Widow’s 2 hour premiere. Garbage. ABC may as well give up at airing a new show Sundays at 10 and by next season either move Revenge to the slot (and move Scandal to Sundays at 9) or keep Revenge at 9 and move Nashville to 10 Sundays like they should have done this season.

    Despite the drop, last March, it was ultimately stable. Its never going to go up to a 2.5 again but I doubt it drops below a 1.4 next week. It will probably rise to a 1.7 or something. Revenge isn’t the type of show to keep dropping to the point where its below a 1.0. Also while Revenge may have dropped by March, all dramas (Not Scandal though) were dropping especially the sunday dramas.

    We’ll see if ABC’s strategy will work out this season, by having split seasons. I think its a better strategy because less breaks means more people will stick around week to week.

    @Dantas – Well we’ll see who’s on drugs when Revenge gets a full 22 episode fourth season, lets see how ABC’s other dramas stack up.

    Grey’s Anatomy – Still holding up, but a very old show.

    Castle – Declining steadily and an old show, yet ABC isn’t ready to give up on it.

    SHIELD – Declining but holding up with a 2.5 average not counting the premiere.

    OUAT – Still declining but steady with a 2.2. average, safe because of syndication.

    Nashville – Steady with a 1.4-1.7 average even with a dismal lead in.

    Revenge – Obviously dropping but not consistently enough to put it in danger.

    ABC’s normal pattern is that when they have a season of flops, and only 1 of their new dramas gets a second season, all other veteran dramas gets renewed. This would have been the case last season had they not cancelled Body of Proof but ABC made that wrong decision and regretted it. So if every new drama fails besides SHIELD, that means Grey’s, Castle, OUAT, Revenge, Scandal, Nashville and Shield will be renewed. That combined with the syndication factor will save Revenge. All this nonsense about it being cancelled is just that, nonsense.

    All dramas are declining this season with the exception of Scandal, however given the fact that 3/4 fall dramas are flops (OUAT Wonderland, Lucky 7, Betrayal) and their spring dramas will probably fail Lucky 7 and Resurrection. ABC will renew Revenge and Nashville for next season because by cancelling those dramas and just bringing back, Grey’s Castle, OUAT, Scandal, and SHIELD would require too many holes to fill and ABC probably doesn’t want to take that risk just yet. (At least not until they can find potential replacements next season)

    Remember the Bear may as well have Revenge stay certain to be renewed because spring ratings matter more for these shows, not fall.

  • Dan

    @Fabian – Where did you hear that, after December 15, Revenge is on hiatus until March 9. There wont be any January airings.

    @SJ – I agree Revenge isn’t getting cancelled. Its staying in its timeslot as well, I personally think the series is very low on ABC’s problems list. They should be less worried about their declining “syndication nearing” dramas and more worried about their new midseason dramas. Nashville may not be in as much danger as people think. Its consistent and its terrible lead in may be the issue. If ABC’s midseason dramas flop then it has a shot for season 4.

    Also why would they cut The Neighbors episode order? If Back in the Game and Super Fun Night will be replaced by Suburgatory and Mixology by March anyway and The Goldbergs and Trophy Wife are staying on Tuesdays, what do they have to replace it with? ABC may as well just keep The Neighbors and Last Man Standing paired together on Fridays until each of their 22 episode orders are done then cancel Neighbors in May.

    @Adam Decker – Super Fun Night only has 1 smiley because its ratings post Modern Family are horrible and it only got a few more episodes which basically serves as a bridge until Mixology premieres in March. Additional episodes = cancelled in May.

    I love how so many people now think Revenge is in trouble, its getting renewed people. Although everyone now thinking that they show is in trouble must be great for the traffic on the site ;).

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