CBS: 'The Mentalist' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hostages :oops: 0.56
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.59
The Mentalist :cry: :cry: 0.59
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.63
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.79
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.83
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Mom :) :) :) :) 0.93
Two and a Half Men :) :) :) :) 1.00
The Crazy Ones :) :) :) :) 1.09
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.36
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.27

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Because the cancellation of veteran CBS shows is heavily influenced by non-public economics like syndication deals (for shows produced by CBS) and license fees (for shows produced by others) it's not nearly so cut and dried as the Cancellation Bear's predictions for CBS rookie shows, where current ratings overwhelm other possible factors.

Besides Hostages, CBS is almost certain to cancel at least one more drama this season to make room for new dramas next season, and that drama will be a veteran. (If this spring's Intelligence happens to get renewed, that might mean yet another drama needs to go, but the bear will leave that until much later).

Because of those non-public factors, and the fact that the relative ratings between The Good Wife and The Mentalist are not likely to tip the scale heavily towards one or the other before the end of the season the bear is unlikely to have much more information in May about those two show's prospect than he does today.

When pushed at the end of the season (by himself) to predict up or down, the bear will take the fact that because The Mentalist is produced by Warner Brothers, it is more likely to meet its end this season than The Good Wife, which is produced by CBS, so he might as well make the prediction today. And he has.

If more dramas need to be canceled to fit CBS's scheduling needs next Fall, The Good Wife is likely to be next (vs. one of the Friday dramas), but that's a topic for another (probably many other) posts.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Nope

    cancel anything but THE MENTALIST/ELEMENTARY/THE GOOD WIFE

  • Chris

    Nooooooooo! I absolutely love The Mentalist. *sad sigh* But I guess with the Red John story concluding, it’s reaching a natural point to end. I’ve loved you The Mentalist! You’ve had a great bunch of years and episodes!

  • Bradley

    The Good Wife is on an upswing. I’d look a little closer at those Friday dramas.

  • gerry

    unless there is a sharp downward trend, TGW is not going anywhere and will be renewed for another, possibly final season.

  • Ultima

    @Bradley
    The Good Wife is on an upswing. I’d look a little closer at those Friday dramas.

    I would wait a couple of weeks and see what The Good Wife’s ratings look like when CBS doesn’t have an NFL doubleheader.

  • Shabbir

    Im a big fan of mentallist but the RJ story should have ended
    couple of seasons ago. Only when the threat of cancellation became real, the writers decided to complete it.

    It would be have been nice to get a season after RJ, to see how Jane copes with life etc.. But I hope its announced quickly to give the writers time to give the mentallist the send off it deserves.

  • Bradley

    @Ultima

    I don’t think that football had anything to do with the ratings of a show that took place 2 hours later. Just my opinion.

  • Davide De Rea

    “When pushed at the end of the season (by himself) to predict up or down, the bear will take the fact that because The Mentalist is produced by Warner Brothers, it is more likely to meet its end this season than The Good Wife, which is produced by CBS, so he might as well make the prediction today. And he has.”

    Why does it matter who produces the show? Is it to do with the license fee being higher than the production cost of an episode/season? I once read that the fee is usually half of the production costs. I wonder why networks bother with shows produced by others in the first place, especially if syndication is where the real money is made.

  • Davide De Rea

    I meant to say “double the production costs”, not “half”, sorry.

  • John K.

    CBS will make money off the new Good Wife episodes not only during original broadcast revenue, but also in selling the additional episodes into syndication. The same cannot be said for the Mentalist.

  • Davide De Rea

    @John K

    Yeah, bu the production company will still make money from syndication. The same amount of money comes in from consumers, only it goes to different places. I assume there must be an advantage to airing shows not produced by the network, or else why would they do it?

  • psychic

    I’m going to miss The Mentalist. However, I still hold out some hope that once the Red John storyline ends, some people who got tired of that storyline might return. It’s a long shot, but…

  • Charles

    Surprised Mom is likely to be renewed. I figured that would definitely be in the likely to get cancelled category.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Can’t really disagree with the prospects for THE GOOD WIFE, so, alas, I’ll wait & see

    Although, CBS can always go back to 3 hours of comedy instead of four -or-
    Hold UB until spring -or-
    Time share Survivor & TAR

    But alas, I’ll have to wait & see

    Aye, me

  • Ted Craig

    @Davide De Rea

    Because they need to fill 19 hours a week. Easier said than done.

  • merrrranga

    and the winner, by knockout, PSYCH!!!

  • steven

    TAAHM got a 2.0 on Thursday. It needs to end this season.

  • Jack Richards

    Okay here is what I don’t understand about canceling the Mentalist. I did some research and the last mentalist in 2011 drew 13 million viewers on a Thursday. You then take the show and move it to sunday which is like a death sentence. It is constantly running late on the east coast because of football which draws over 20 million viewers each week. Why would you cancel a show that still draws 9 million to bring in a new show that might itself bomb? Why not move the show back to a weekday and see how it does before sending it to the graveyard? Fire & Brimstone was postponed a week due to football running long. The Mentalist is a good show people and all we want is consistency from CBS. Give it a chance and move it to a better night and watch the ratings go back up.

  • Scandalicious

    I would really hate to see The Good Wife go especially after a creative high like this season. I am fairly confident that The Mentalist will be canceled over The Good Wife but if Intelligence does do well and something else has to go, I hope CBS would give The Good Wife at least a partial order to wrap things up the right way.

    After this week’s low for Mom I would say that it is probably going to get canceled. With this being the last season for HIMYM and the demise of 2 and a Half Men, I am thinking that The Crazy Ones and The Millers may both be able to sneak out a second season. If they only decide to renew one I hope they see the quality difference between TM and TCO. TCO is much better and has way more potential.

  • MARTY

    jack Richards cbs uses 9 to 11 on fri and sundays as syndication farms. the mentalist will have around 140 episodes and is not owned by cbs. good wife just it 100 and Hawaii five 5-0 and bluebloods will get to 100 next year all are cbs owned

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