CBS: ‘The Mentalist’ Is Likely To Be Canceled
Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCBSShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Blue Bloods (F)||0.59|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F)||0.62|
|The Good Wife||😐😐😐||0.63|
|We Are Men*||canceled||0.74|
|Person Of Interest||0.89|
|Two And A Half Men||1.00|
|The Crazy Ones||1.09|
|2 Broke Girls||1.09|
|Mike & Molly||1.11|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.12|
|How I Met Your Mother||final season||1.36|
|The Big Bang Theory||2.27|
Because the cancellation of veteran CBS shows is heavily influenced by non-public economics like syndication deals (for shows produced by CBS) and license fees (for shows produced by others) it’s not nearly so cut and dried as the cancellation bear’s predictions for CBS rookie shows, where current ratings overwhelm other possible factors.
Besides Hostages, CBS is almost certain to cancel at least one more drama this season to make room for new dramas next season, and that drama will be a veteran. (If this spring’s Intelligence happens to get renewed, that might mean yet another drama needs to go, but the bear will leave that until much later).
Because of those non-public factors, and the fact that the relative ratings between The Good Wife and The Mentalist are not likely to tip the scale heavily towards one or the other before the end of the season the bear is unlikely to have much more information in May about those two show’s prospect than he does today.
When pushed at the end of the season (by himself) to predict up or down, the bear will take the fact that because The Mentalist is produced by Warner Brothers, it is more likely to meet its end this season than The Good Wife, which is produced by CBS, so he might as well make the prediction today. And he has.
If more dramas need to be canceled to fit CBS’s scheduling needs next Fall, The Good Wife is likely to be next (vs. one of the Friday dramas), but that’s a topic for another (probably many other) posts.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.