CBS: 'The Mentalist' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


bear-aware

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hostages :oops: 0.56
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.59
The Mentalist :cry: :cry: 0.59
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.63
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.79
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.83
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Mom :) :) :) :) 0.93
Two and a Half Men :) :) :) :) 1.00
The Crazy Ones :) :) :) :) 1.09
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.36
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.27

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Because the cancellation of veteran CBS shows is heavily influenced by non-public economics like syndication deals (for shows produced by CBS) and license fees (for shows produced by others) it's not nearly so cut and dried as the Cancellation Bear's predictions for CBS rookie shows, where current ratings overwhelm other possible factors.

Besides Hostages, CBS is almost certain to cancel at least one more drama this season to make room for new dramas next season, and that drama will be a veteran. (If this spring's Intelligence happens to get renewed, that might mean yet another drama needs to go, but the bear will leave that until much later).

Because of those non-public factors, and the fact that the relative ratings between The Good Wife and The Mentalist are not likely to tip the scale heavily towards one or the other before the end of the season the bear is unlikely to have much more information in May about those two show's prospect than he does today.

When pushed at the end of the season (by himself) to predict up or down, the bear will take the fact that because The Mentalist is produced by Warner Brothers, it is more likely to meet its end this season than The Good Wife, which is produced by CBS, so he might as well make the prediction today. And he has.

If more dramas need to be canceled to fit CBS's scheduling needs next Fall, The Good Wife is likely to be next (vs. one of the Friday dramas), but that's a topic for another (probably many other) posts.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Bear1000

    “The Mentalist” is a great show but sadly once the Red John story arc ends, there probably isn’t a whole lot left for Patrick Jane to do. The only thing that really motivates him is catching Red John and any other case is just a means to an end.

  • Kingron

    As much as I love the Mentalist we should at least be grateful that they are able to have a conclusion to their show.. a lot of shows now a days that have not been on 7 or 8 years rarely get a conclusion that’s fitting the show.

    Heck I even remember in the 90s when Married with Children had been a staple of Sundays with the SImpsons for almost 14 years did not even get a real final episode.

  • Ultima

    @Bradley
    I don’t think that football had anything to do with the ratings of a show that took place 2 hours later. Just my opinion.

    In the past, I would agree; it’s usually a huge boost for 60 Minutes, a slight boost for The Amazing Race, basically no effect on The Good Wife, and a slight negative effect on The Mentalist.

    However, this season, The Good Wife is doing significantly better when CBS has the NFL doubleheader. It may just be the result of increased interest in the show; if that’s the case, then we should see ratings around 1.6 for the next couple of weeks while FOX has the doubleheader.

    Regular airings – 1.5, 1.2, 1.4

    Post-football – 1.6, 1.4, 1.6, 1.7

  • Parker Wyeth

    I agree that Patrick’s sole purpose has been to catch/kill Red John. I don’t see anything that the writers could do to hold on to loyal viewers or bring in new viewers. It will be interesting to see what sort of ratings the episode after the Red John conclusion gets.
    Will Red John kill Wayne and/or Grace since they’re both leaving? I can see Grace dying since Wayne has a kid.

  • Bob Smith

    It won’t be a Friday drama because number one, Blue Bloods is number 1 in demos and overall ratings. Two, Hawaii Five-O has improved the Friday night slot and even rank number one in demos this past week over Grimm. I agree The Mentalist has run its course, even though I still enjoy the show.

  • PurpleDrazi

    @Jack Richards

    Why would you cancel a show that still draws 9 million to bring in a new show that might itself bomb?

    Short answer: Because the new show might also turn out to be a big hit.

    Long answer: Networks have to bring in new shows which means something has to go to make room. The Mentalist is an aging show that is getting more expensive to make and is on a downward slide. It’s ratings might get slightly better with a move to a new night but they certainly won’t grow significantly. Why spend resources helping a show that is on its way out when you could take a chance and find that next hit.

  • pony tail

    LEAVE THE MENTALIST ALONE!

  • sally

    I love The Mentalist cant stand The Bad Wife

  • CBSviewer

    I agree The Mentalist will be canceled. After all, in two weeks, Red John’s identity will be revealed.
    Of course it has low ratings but more than half of the episodes this season aired a 10:30 or later :(

  • SJ

    @Ultima

    I think The Good Wife benefits more from airing in the 10pm time slot, where it has traditionally done better than at 9pm, than it does from the football lead-in which is basically non-existent for a show that airs two hours later.

    Two and a Half Men is a legit bubble show at this point. I still expect renewal, but a cancellation wouldn’t entirely surprise me given its price tag.

    Out of the new comedies, I think that The Crazy Ones is the one that’s most likely to go, as much as it pains me to say it. A show that’s barely breaking a 2 rating in the pivotal 9pm slot is in for a rough ride, not to mention it’s still out of place in the multi-cam dominated CBS comedy schedule.

    I do, however, see a scenario is which all 7 comedies (excluding HIMYM, of course) are renewed for next season, with Mike and Molly again being held in case something flops. That would mean that CBS would only have to premiere two new comedies in the fall and not cut down on its comedy hours. But we’ll see…

    As for the drama situation, reading tea leaves doesn’t get any easier as the season goes by. I do agree that The Mentalist is in a slightly worse position than The Good Wife even though I claimed otherwise at the beginning of the season. I still think they both go, but I’m giving The Good Wife a 45% chance at renewal (and only a 15% chance for The Mentalist). I don’t think either of the Friday dramas in in trouble yet.

  • Bad Wolf

    @sally

    Sorry sally, be ready to say goodbye this spring. ;-)

    @Jack Richards

    Total viewers numbers don’t matter (see : NBC’s Harry’s Law), it’s the Adults 18-49 numbers which are important, and The Mentalist’s ones are very weak. Also, The Mentalist has steadily decreased every season, even when it was on Thursdays, it’s very likely this trend would go on next season, and the demo numbers would follow, flirting dangerously with the 1.0 mark.
    Honestly, with the conclusion of the Red John storyline, two original cast members departing, the show not being produced by CBS, I don’t see a single reason to renew it (bar a spectacular recovery, which is sadly unlikely).

  • Rosanna

    In my opinion, CBS is uncorrect and unpolite. The Mentalist doesn’t deserve this treatment!

  • Matt M.

    Elementary has a good chance at cancellation as well. It is nowhere near syndication (2 seasons & 40 episodes away), and does mid 1′s in the 18-49 demographic on average, on Thursday, CBS’s strongest night of the week. Plus, it’s topped by an ABC 10PM drama every week in viewers and almost all demos. Please explain to me how this doesn’t spell cancellation for Elementary.

  • omabin

    I agree with the mentalist prediction, I’ve had it for a while now. Other than that, I agree with most, even though I would put The Crazy Ones, Mom, Two and a Half Men and The Millers all in the bubble. I think the eternal CBS drama uncertainty will be transferred to the comedies this year. Unless a bigger ratings gap opens, I don’t see how we will be able to predict it.

    On the drama side, I think it is nos crystal clear that the good wife is let go instead of blue bloods for two reasons:
    a) the good wife has an insanely high syndication deal (2 mil per episode). Blue Bloods has yet to score one, and while I am sure it will, it may not be as profitable
    b) I think CBS will be motivated to keep one Sunday show as it would be a very “un-CBS” thing to move two shows to that night in the same year. It’s easier to cancel one one Friday and one on Sunday for scheduling purposes.

  • milo

    Seems like there’s a good chance both Mentalist and Good Wife get cancelled. Normally H50 and Blue Bloods would be in scarier shape as well if it wasn’t for the two sunday shows.

  • Ultima

    @Matt M
    does mid 1?s in the 18-49 demographic on average

    No, it doesn’t; Elementary is averaging a 1.8 this season (and has had that rating the past three weeks).

    Plus, it’s topped by an ABC 10PM drama every week in viewers and almost all demos.

    Which is completely irrelevant; it’s not competing with Scandal for a timeslot on next year’s schedule.

    Elementary’s numbers aren’t good, but they’re not horrible either. They’re certainly not bad enough to where CBS wouldn’t suffer two more seasons of the show on a Friday or Sunday in order to sell it into syndication.

  • Don

    I know money drives CBS’s decisions, but those decisions don’t make sense. The will cancel the Mentalist in favor of a new drama that will flop. Have they ever thought their schedule is the problem. The Mentalist is on Sundays at 9:00 pm (CST). That is laye, since they cannot get the football timing down.. It usually starts one-half to three-quarters of an hour late. It’s not the show, it’s the timing. A Half-hour sitcom that late at night on Sunday would help viewership in tat time slot. The non football stations seem to get it correct.

  • MARTY

    matt simple elementary is cbs owned and cbs does not cancel dramas it owns after 2 seasons it is bound for sundays next year. the last 2nd year drama they canceled was shark and they didn’t own it. Jericho was canceled but it only had 29 episodes.

  • J.

    CBS is giving The Mentalist a bad treatment. This season, TM always aired at 10.30-10.45 and still has a decent rating… people can’t turn their tv at 11pm to watch a series! On the other hand, TGW is doing well in the 10-11pm timeslot.
    If CBS had fairplay, it should have switched TM at 9pm and TGW at 10pm. Too bad, CBS doesn’t care at all.

  • MARTY

    don and j cbs doesn’t own the mentalist. they got it to syndication.

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