CBS: 'The Mentalist' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


bear-aware

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hostages :oops: 0.56
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.59
The Mentalist :cry: :cry: 0.59
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.63
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.79
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.83
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Mom :) :) :) :) 0.93
Two and a Half Men :) :) :) :) 1.00
The Crazy Ones :) :) :) :) 1.09
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.36
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.27

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Because the cancellation of veteran CBS shows is heavily influenced by non-public economics like syndication deals (for shows produced by CBS) and license fees (for shows produced by others) it's not nearly so cut and dried as the Cancellation Bear's predictions for CBS rookie shows, where current ratings overwhelm other possible factors.

Besides Hostages, CBS is almost certain to cancel at least one more drama this season to make room for new dramas next season, and that drama will be a veteran. (If this spring's Intelligence happens to get renewed, that might mean yet another drama needs to go, but the bear will leave that until much later).

Because of those non-public factors, and the fact that the relative ratings between The Good Wife and The Mentalist are not likely to tip the scale heavily towards one or the other before the end of the season the bear is unlikely to have much more information in May about those two show's prospect than he does today.

When pushed at the end of the season (by himself) to predict up or down, the bear will take the fact that because The Mentalist is produced by Warner Brothers, it is more likely to meet its end this season than The Good Wife, which is produced by CBS, so he might as well make the prediction today. And he has.

If more dramas need to be canceled to fit CBS's scheduling needs next Fall, The Good Wife is likely to be next (vs. one of the Friday dramas), but that's a topic for another (probably many other) posts.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • SJ

    @omabin

    It would also be very un-CBS to cancel a show that hasn’t hit 100 episodes yet. Therefore Hawaii 5-0 and Blue Bloods are safer than The Good Wife. Also if it ever did come down to H50 vs BB, Hawaii would get the hook given how terribly it’s done in syndication. BB might not have a syndication deal yet, but at least there’s still a chance of it doing better than H50 in syndication.

  • direct39

    I love “The Mentalist”, but I think that season 6 should be the last.

  • JOE

    I’ve said this before but the Mentalist is sure to be gone…The Good Wife may just get one last season, CSI will move to Sundays at 10pm, with Minds sliding to Weds 10pm. If Intelligence hits than I don’t think that necessarily means another show will be canceled as Hostages is already out.

    On the comedy side I think Mom has the edge as it is from Chuck Lorre, The Millers is a CBS production so IMO it will make it less it takes a dive…The Crazy Ones isn’t from CBS therefore it needs to pick-up steam or it is out.

  • shogun

    Even if Intelligence gets cancelled, wouldn’t CBS still need to cancel the Good Wife to get it’s standard 3 cancellations, since Hostages and Intelligence only went 13 episodes?

    Anyway, while I agree that TGW will get renewed before the Mentalist, people are overhyping it’s chances. Yes, it’s ratings are going up, but that’s because football is pushing it into 10 pm, when it doesn’t have to compete with TWD, BE, or Homeland. Not to mention it has no DVR lift to speak of.

  • Percy

    I really hope Hawaii Five-0 gets renewed!

  • Ultima

    @J
    CBS is giving The Mentalist a bad treatment. This season, TM always aired at 10.30-10.45

    Actually, it will only air four of its ten fall episodes at that time, but don’t let facts get in the way of your whining.

    If CBS had fairplay, it should have switched TM at 9pm and TGW at 10pm. Too bad, CBS doesn’t care at all.

    Shocking that CBS cares more about the drama that it owns than the one it rents from Warner Bros.

  • Ultima

    @Don
    I know money drives CBS’s decisions, but those decisions don’t make sense. … Have they ever thought their schedule is the problem.

    The only reason that The Mentalist is on the schedule is so that Warner Bros has more episodes to air in syndication. It can serve that purpose no matter where it is on the schedule, so why would CBS bother wasting a good time slot on the show?

    The will cancel the Mentalist in favor of a new drama that will flop.

    Actually, CBS will cancel enough programming (including The Mentalist) to allow them to premiere 3-4 hours worth of new shows in the fall in the hopes that one or two of them are hits.

    It’s irrelevant whether or not the show that gets The Mentalist’s timeslot is successful or not (they’ll likely move a veteran to Sunday night instead of putting a new show there anyways).

  • Alan3

    When it comes to the shows I watch this year, I MUCH prefer Bill’s cancellation bear lists to Tom’s “Almost Everything Will be Mercilessly Cancelled” omen of doom for my shows….

  • Ultima

    @shotgun
    Even if Intelligence gets cancelled, wouldn’t CBS still need to cancel the Good Wife to get it’s standard 3 cancellations, since Hostages and Intelligence only went 13 episodes?

    You shouldn’t think of it as cancelling a fixed number of shows, but rather freeing up space for new shows (CBS has been at 3-4 hours of new shows in the fall for several years now).

    Hostages plus Intelligence is one hour, The Mentalist is the second hour, and only bringing back four to six sitcoms gives them 3-4 hours total.

    If Intelligence were to hit, then CBS would need to cancel another veteran (e.g. Blue Bloods or The Good Wife) to make room for it on the fall schedule.

  • Kate

    How can one even judge how The Mentalist is doing when it keeps getting shunted out of its time slot by football? It’s aired up to an hour late at times. Is this a good way to judge how something will do once football season is over and the timeslot stabilizes? Maybe predictions on The Mentalists eminent demise should wait until Spring…

  • Ultima

    @Joe
    If Intelligence hits than I don’t think that necessarily means another show will be canceled as Hostages is already out.

    That doesn’t make any sense.

    Yes, Intelligence will just take Hostages timeslot, but now that timeslot can’t be used for a new show next fall, so CBS will have to cancel something else to make room.

  • shogun

    Ah, I thought sitcoms and dramas weren’t in the same cancellation category. Thanks, Ultima.

  • MB

    Cancel anything (anything)…BUT NOT THE MENTALIST! PLEASE NOOOOOOOOOO!

  • Ultima

    @Kate
    How can one even judge how The Mentalist is doing when it keeps getting shunted out of its time slot by football?

    It’s not very hard.

    Is this a good way to judge how something will do once football season is over and the timeslot stabilizes?

    That never actually happens. It will only air two episodes in January, then the February episodes will air against the Olympics (it normal seasons, it only airs one February episode), then in March/April it will be airing late again for a few weeks because of March Madness and The Masters.

  • jimbo

    Can’t believe “The Millers” ratings, the only thing i can think of is because it follows THM BUT even THM sucks, everytime i see john cryer whine on the show i gag…

  • ToXiX

    @jimbo

    The millers doesn’t follow Two and a Half Men.

  • Olive

    The Goodwife is improving by leaps and bounds with a game changing storyline this season – hope ratings will also correspondingly improve!

  • awesome-49

    I like the mentalist but as long as this show ends well with the red john reveal its okay to cancel it.

  • JOE

    Ultima said

    @Joe
    If Intelligence hits than I don’t think that necessarily means another show will be canceled as Hostages is already out.

    That doesn’t make any sense.

    Yes, Intelligence will just take Hostages timeslot, but now that timeslot can’t be used for a new show next fall, so CBS will have to cancel something else to make room.

    No, there is still room…Undercover Boss is better used to shore up a weak show and I forsee the 9pm Weds slot opening up, therefore you have at least 2 hours there. CBS is also changing, it would not surprise me if they expanded their comedy presence to Fridays at 8pm.

    This season there were 3 hours of programming (2 hours of comedy and 1 hour of drama)….we could see a repeat of that next season

  • Adam Decker

    I predict that The Mentalist, The Good Wife, Hostages, Friends with Better Lives, Crisis, Intelligence, and other midseason shows I might be forgetting get cancelled and every other show will get renewed.

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