CBS: 'The Mentalist' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


bear-aware

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hostages :oops: 0.56
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.59
The Mentalist :cry: :cry: 0.59
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.63
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.79
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.83
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Mom :) :) :) :) 0.93
Two and a Half Men :) :) :) :) 1.00
The Crazy Ones :) :) :) :) 1.09
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.36
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.27

-
Because the cancellation of veteran CBS shows is heavily influenced by non-public economics like syndication deals (for shows produced by CBS) and license fees (for shows produced by others) it's not nearly so cut and dried as the Cancellation Bear's predictions for CBS rookie shows, where current ratings overwhelm other possible factors.

Besides Hostages, CBS is almost certain to cancel at least one more drama this season to make room for new dramas next season, and that drama will be a veteran. (If this spring's Intelligence happens to get renewed, that might mean yet another drama needs to go, but the bear will leave that until much later).

Because of those non-public factors, and the fact that the relative ratings between The Good Wife and The Mentalist are not likely to tip the scale heavily towards one or the other before the end of the season the bear is unlikely to have much more information in May about those two show's prospect than he does today.

When pushed at the end of the season (by himself) to predict up or down, the bear will take the fact that because The Mentalist is produced by Warner Brothers, it is more likely to meet its end this season than The Good Wife, which is produced by CBS, so he might as well make the prediction today. And he has.

If more dramas need to be canceled to fit CBS's scheduling needs next Fall, The Good Wife is likely to be next (vs. one of the Friday dramas), but that's a topic for another (probably many other) posts.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Joseph Lambert

    The Amazing Race is likely to be canceled due to its declining ratings. It has been on CBS for too long.

  • Paulo PT

    The Mentalist could be one of CBS best rated dramas, instead moving to sundays kill the show, after moving to thursday. Tuesdays was the right night, but CBS was greedy and lose!

  • Raphael

    Nice, good to see The Good Wife is safe for now. Well, IF Intelligence gets renewed. LOL

  • AP076

    @Joe
    “No, there is still room…Undercover Boss is better used to shore up a weak show and I forsee the 9pm Weds slot opening up, therefore you have at least 2 hours there. CBS is also changing, it would not surprise me if they expanded their comedy presence to Fridays at 8pm.”

    So much nonsense in one paragraph. I’ll wait on Ultima

  • Pepper

    CBS needs some new hit dramas. Everything is aging quickly.

  • Ultima

    @Joe
    No, there is still room…Undercover Boss is better used to shore up a weak show and I forsee the 9pm Weds slot opening up

    Right now, Undercover Boss is their strongest Friday show. I don’t think it’s a trivial decision to just pull it off the fall schedule if Intelligence hits.

    In any case, your initial argument was still flawed. If Intelligence hits, they’ll need to free up another hour (i.e. cancel a drama or hold Undercover Boss); Hostages being canceled doesn’t change that.

  • Ultima

    @Joseph Lambert
    The Amazing Race is likely to be canceled due to its declining ratings.

    Aside from a very slight increase in 2009, the ratings for The Amazing Race have been declining since in peaked in 2005. Of course, since CBS’ ratings overall have also been declining, this isn’t really a big deal.

    It will eventually end or be canceled, but saying that it’s likely at this point is ridiculous.

  • Alan3

    The Amazing Race is likely to be canceled due to its declining ratings. It has been on CBS for too long.

    The same could be said for Big Brother and Survivor. All 3 are getting very long in the tooth, but they are still reliable and will probably continue until they CHOOSE to end.

  • Carmen

    The Amazing Race is likely to be canceled due to its declining ratings. It has been on CBS for too long.

    Perhaps , but its been a great performer for CBS for 12 years and I don’t think its dead just yet.

    Maybe they could give it a summer run June – August for the first time while everything else is on hiatus and see how it does.

  • s0303

    fingers crossed at a good wife renewal…the show is getting rave reviews this year and i believe that’s the reason for the ratings increase, not football…at the beginning of the season, i would have said certain cancellation, but now i have hope :)

  • Raykov

    Soo… to get right into topic. We don’t know how much new dramas CBS will air – my best guess is 2 hours drama and 1/1.5 hours Comedy. Even if Intelligence is a hit, it doesn’t mean Monday slot will be occupied. CBS could again hold it for mid-season and air another “limited” series in the fall. Though a success of Intelligence is unlikely, considering that CBS hadn’t had a successful mid-season drama (or show at all) in the past few seasons.

    Also why are crazy schedule theories always ignored… Fox is doing right now a crazy schedule thing with half-seasons and moving Bones to Fridays in mid-November.

    IMO The Mentalist is a goner. It was in this position for the last 2 seasons and unlike TGW it is not owned by CBS. Also if it comes to this I think TGW has better chances of survival than Elementary and BB. And lets not forget that CBS at some point could start doing one cycles of Survivor/Amazing race and schedule them in the same spot for fall/spring schedule.

    On another issue – I think MOM is more likely to be renewed than 2.5 Men. Yeah, I know syndication gods demand at least 4 seasons with Ashton Kutcher, but I’m pretty sure that 3 more seasons of MOM would cost less than 1 more season of Ashton Kutcher’s sellary alone. I expect big changes in the comedy schedule for mid-season like they used to switch Monday’s comedies when TBBT was still there.

  • TV God

    On the comedy front, I see everything being renewed except for HIMYM and The Crazy Ones, with 2.5 men getting renewed for a (Shortened)final season.

    On the drama front, I don’t care. I don’t watch CBS dramas.

  • Kate

    I think ‘The Mentalist’, ‘The Good Wife’, and possibly ‘Elementary’ getting canceled, all new comedies with the exception of ‘The Millers’ getting canceled, and ‘TAAHM’ not getting renewed either.

    Keep in mind, ‘NCIS:NOLA’ will air next fall, and Mark Harmon and Gary Glasberg will push the network to air that after the mothership series on Tuesday nights. I think ‘NCIS:LA’, will get moved to Wednesdays a 9PM, ‘Criminal Minds’ moving to 10PM. If ‘Elementary’ or ‘The Good Wife’ does not get canceled, ‘The Good Wife’ will stay at 9PM on Sundays or ‘Elementary’ will move there. ‘CSI’ will get moved to 10PM on Sunday nights for a final seasons. If ‘Intelligence’ gets canceled, a new drama will go in it’s place, and I can see CBS going back to drama for Thursday nights, maybe putting ‘Criminal Minds’ or ‘NCIS:LA’ at 9PM with the new series following it, and vice versa for Wednesday night. Comedy block for 4 hours on Monday, one hour on Thursday night.

  • Dan

    I think both The Mentalist and The Good Wife are done by May. While Good Wife might have a slight edge I guess, the series will have gotten over 100 episodes and is finally in syndication. There wont be any incentive to renew it.

    CBS needs a complete makeover on Sundays in the 9-11 time periods. My guess is for next season they will move Hawaii 5-0 to sundays at 10, CSI to Fridays at 9 and maybe premiere new dramas during the week. Its difficult to determine exactly what dramas will move where but since CBS will keep the 2 hour comedy block both days and probably premiere 3 dramas in the fall this means 3 timeslots will need to be freed. I expect Intelligence to be cancelled to even if it improves on Hostages’ timeslot, CBS’s mentality for midseason is that a new show in the fall can and will do better.

    Canceling Hostages/Intelligence, Mentalist, Good Wife and Reckless will free up some space next season. 3 drama slots, then CBS can move shows around like a puzzle to figure out what fits where. Hawaii 5-0 and or Elementary seem like good candidates to move to Sundays, CSI will probably move to fridays alongside Blue Bloods (I cant see CBS premiering a new drama on Fridays again)

    Blue Bloods and Hawaii 5-0 will both get full fifth seasons, anyone who thinks otherwise is oblivious to the fact that CBS owns them, both have syndication deals and neither show is doing terrible enough to warrant a cancellation over Good Wife/Mentalist.

    In the comedy department, CBS will definitely keep Big Bang, 2 Broke Girls and Mike & Molly and likely try to keep Two and a Half Men over The Crazy Ones thereby renewing 2 comedies for next season (Mom and The Millers) having 2 slots in the fall open for new comedies and cancelling both midseason comedies (Bad Teacher and Friends With Better Lives)

    It may just be a guess but its the best possible guess unless something else changes.

  • brian

    The Good Wife is a critical darling (really, the only one on network TV) having it’s best season yet and CBS would get way too much egg on its face to cancel it. If they do cancel it, they will make a formal announcement in February to give it proper time to conclude. This is an issue where ratings are not taken into consideration as much as the critical acclaim and the fact that you mentioned that it’s produced in-house at CBS.

    The Mentalist is solving it’s main mystery of Red John this month and I expect it to be cancelled at the end of the season. My guess is that Hawaii 5-0 would get cancelled prior to The Good Wife at the end of the season (again, assuming an announcement is not made prior by February or so about TGW ending).

  • Lovellynn

    I can see alot of viewers support The Mentalist in general! How can they said most likely to be cancelled? Just because its produce by Warner Bros & not CBS??

  • Paul

    The Good Wife moves to Fridays at 9pm. There, it’ll get the same 1.5′s and can continue on for a few more seasons and keep CBS getting its critical acclaim.

  • Dan

    @Brian – This isn’t FOX, NBC or ABC, CBS never announces final seasons for shows. HIMYM is the exception and Medium was defacto because they cut the order. CSI NY and Miami were never announced as final seasons so despite critical praise CBS may not do the same with The Good Wife. The Mentalist is wrapping up the Red John mystery so the show is as good as done anyway.
    Hawaii 5-0 wont be cancelled neither will Blue Bloods.

    @Lovellynn – The Mentalist is CBS’s lowest rated drama even dipping below the Good Wife since CBS always cancels its lowest rated veteran drama The Mentalist is more likely to go than The Good Wife because the fact that WB doesnt own it doesn’t give CBS incentive to give it more eps for syndication.

  • Rachel

    Maybe if they quit pushing The Mentalist back so late every week it’s ratings would be better. It’s actually been really good this season.

  • Dan

    @Rachel – That’s an unfortunate result of CBS’s football scheduling, happens all the time. CSI Miami and Cold Case were both frequently preempted as a result of being a 10pm Sunday show. Sundays have been recently for CBS the last stop before veterans get cancelled (CSI Miami, Cold Case, Without a Trace, The Unit) more so then Fridays (CSI NY, Medium, Numb3rs, Ghost Whisperer)

    @Paul – Nahh, moving low rated shows wont stop them from being low rated. They will just be a waste of CBS’s money.

    @Rapahel – Pay no attention to the chart. The reality is Good Wife should be 2 frowny faces not 50/50. Its far from bubble really. My guess is when ratings decline, Bill will move it down the list but for now Mentalist is in the headline. Good Wife will be soon enough. I could have sworn Good Wife was lower rated than Mentalist and BB/Hawaii 5-0. I guess not.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures