CBS: 'The Mentalist' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


bear-aware

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hostages :oops: 0.56
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.59
The Mentalist :cry: :cry: 0.59
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.63
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.79
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.83
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Mom :) :) :) :) 0.93
Two and a Half Men :) :) :) :) 1.00
The Crazy Ones :) :) :) :) 1.09
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.36
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.27

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Because the cancellation of veteran CBS shows is heavily influenced by non-public economics like syndication deals (for shows produced by CBS) and license fees (for shows produced by others) it's not nearly so cut and dried as the Cancellation Bear's predictions for CBS rookie shows, where current ratings overwhelm other possible factors.

Besides Hostages, CBS is almost certain to cancel at least one more drama this season to make room for new dramas next season, and that drama will be a veteran. (If this spring's Intelligence happens to get renewed, that might mean yet another drama needs to go, but the bear will leave that until much later).

Because of those non-public factors, and the fact that the relative ratings between The Good Wife and The Mentalist are not likely to tip the scale heavily towards one or the other before the end of the season the bear is unlikely to have much more information in May about those two show's prospect than he does today.

When pushed at the end of the season (by himself) to predict up or down, the bear will take the fact that because The Mentalist is produced by Warner Brothers, it is more likely to meet its end this season than The Good Wife, which is produced by CBS, so he might as well make the prediction today. And he has.

If more dramas need to be canceled to fit CBS's scheduling needs next Fall, The Good Wife is likely to be next (vs. one of the Friday dramas), but that's a topic for another (probably many other) posts.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Rosa

    I don’t want The Mentalist to be cancelled!!!! This is the best show on t.v. CBS….Please move it to a weekday night and give it at least one more season. This show rocks.

  • Sleepy

    As a mentalist fan I realize it’s time for the show to end. But the show airs mostly outside of primetime. People with work the next day can’t stay up til midnight watching tv “live” just saying

  • anonTV

    Isn’t “Hostages” supposed to be a one season show no matter what? I thought I remembered hearing that in all the ads for the show.

  • Michael

    The Mentalist is gone people…writing on the wall.
    But I now actually think the Good Wife MIGHT be saved.

    Here is my prediction for the Fall 2014 Schedule on SUNDAY (yea, that’s right. CBS does new programming on Sundays lol).

    8:00 Amazing Race
    9:00 The Good Wife
    10:00 Elementary

    There I said it. Elementary will move to Sundays in order to save it.

    Oh and No Changes for Friday. The H50 and Blue Bloods Tangem is actually working somewhat decently :)

    As for Comedy’s…MOM is in Trouble, 2 and 1/2 Men have to watch their back and now so does The Crazy Ones ( I like that show too! :( ) So we’ll have to see…unless of course, the Millers continues to fall (probably will…and then CBS will have a Comedy fiscal mess, somewhat to the likes of NBC’s problem minus Mike & Molly, 2 Broke Girls and BBT of course). Makes me wonder if CBS will cut a “Comedy” hour next year for a new DRAMA :S

  • Dan

    @AnonTV – The unwritten rule with Hostages like OUAT Wonderland, Betrayal, Dracula, even Sleepy Hollow was that initally its a limited series but if the series did well it could be given a second season. Unlike Sleepy Hollow, Hostages and the rest of those mentioned series will be cancelled.

  • Bill

    CBS should leave the 10pm slot open next year during football season . The entire schedule is all messed up every week

  • JSG

    @Raykov

    “Also if it comes to this I think TGW has better chances of survival than Elementary”

    Based on what? Elementary’s ratings aren’t lighting the world on fire, but they are noticeably better than The Good Wife’s. Elementary needs two more seasons to reach syndication, while The Good Wife needs none. Both shows are owned by CBS, so that’s a wash. I’m not entirely convinced that The Good Wife will be canceled (in fact, I would prefer that it isn’t, since I like the show), but if it isn’t, it won’t be at Elementary’s expense.

  • anna g

    JSG
    Based on what? Elementary’s ratings aren’t lighting the world on fire, but they are noticeably better than The Good Wife’s. Elementary needs two more seasons to reach syndication, while The Good Wife needs none. Both shows are owned by CBS, so that’s a wash. I’m not entirely convinced that The Good Wife will be canceled (in fact, I would prefer that it isn’t, since I like the show), but if it isn’t, it won’t be at Elementary’s expense.
    ——————-
    Elementary doesn’t have syndication deal yet and based on its ratings, it will hard to get one.

  • Mitchell

    @anna g

    As if. Procedurals are some of the easiest shows to get syndicated, regardless of their first run ratings. If CBS could get The Good Wife syndicated, which is low rated AND serialised, then they can get Elementary syndicated, easily.

  • George

    i reallyt like the mentalist. but, they have focused WAY TOO MUCH on the red john thing this season. it’s become one L O N G unending storyline.

  • Douglas from Brazil

    I don’t see The Good Wife being cancelled in May,my bet that The Mentalist will get axed or will be renewed for a 13 episodes order like they did with Medium,which CBS owns.

  • ed jepsen

    dear cbs i like the mentilist tv show its got a story don’t cancel it. thank you ed jepsen

  • PurpleDrazi

    @AnonTV
    @Dan

    Both of you are confusing the definition of a limited series. “Limited” refers to the number of episodes NOT the number of seasons.

    All it means is that the show is designed to have less than the normal 22 episodes per season. Beyond that it’s just like every other show. If it gets good ratings it’s picked up and if it does poorly it gets canceled.

  • Carmen

    @ Anna G

    Elementary doesn’t have syndication deal yet and based on its ratings, it will hard to get one.

    I sincerely doubt it. Elementary is exactly the type of show that does well in syndication.
    Since Elementary is in no real danger of cancellation this season, it has excellent chances of getting 4+ years ( or min 88 episodes).

    The Good Wife may have a syndication deal, but history shows that marginally rated serialized shows are not suddenly big successes (in syndication).

    Try not to let your personal preferences cloud your logic.

  • Ultima

    @Bill
    CBS should leave the 10pm slot open next year during football season

    The sports overruns don’t stop when football season ends, they last until mid-April.

    You’re effectively suggesting that CBS should just drop an hour of primetime from their schedule. How does that help the network?

    Also, from a fan perspective, would it be better if CBS had canceled The Mentalist instead of airing it in its current timeslot?

  • Ultima

    @Michael
    8:00 Amazing Race
    9:00 The Good Wife
    10:00 Elementary

    I think Elementary will air at Sunday 9pm, bumping The Good Wife to 10pm. Elementary needs the stronger, more stable ratings during its third (and fourth) seasons as CBS tries to secure a syndication package for it.

    Basically the same logic that kept The Good Wife at 9pm over The Mentalist.

  • anna g

    Carmen
    I am not bias in any way against Elementary because I watch this show. I am only judging its chances based on current ratings – and they are low in season 2 already. PoI got syndication deal after season 2 and it had ratings around 2.9, The good wife is a critically acclaimed show and still it had problems to get syndication deal- I read the deal is split. H50 got syndication deal already in season 1 when ratings were above 3.0. Castle and Bones have sundication deals with ratings above 2, so I can slim chance for Elementary, especially when you take into account expected spring fall in ratings.

  • Barbie

    @Bob Smith
    Posted November 12, 2013 at 9:29 AM

    “It won’t be a Friday drama because number one, Blue Bloods is number 1 in demos and overall ratings.”

    You realize that Hawaii Five-0 had had better demos than Blue Bloods since week two this season right? Also, if one of the Friday dramas were to go, it would probably be Blue Bloods, because H50 makes crazy syndication money from TNT and it gets mad sponsoring, for things like product placement, which leads them to consider other things other than just live viewing.

  • charlotte mustain

    I am getting tired of Red John on the Menalist. find him stop talking about. every show is something about Red John. and on the good wife why does alicia just become the governor wife and forget being a lawyer.

  • JOE

    @AP076 – You sir are an ass

    @Ultima – We will just have to agree to disagree, I still think CBS will expand their comedies next season as dramas are waning and skew older…CBS’ average age is nearly 60 and I’m sure Moonves and company want to stop the aging.

    Monday
    HIMYF (New)
    2 Broke Girls
    New comedy or returning hit
    Mike&Molly
    New Drama or Intelligence

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS: LA
    Persons Of Interest

    Wednesday
    Survivor
    New Drama
    Criminal Minds

    Thursday
    Big Bang Theory
    New Comedy
    Returning/New Comedy
    Mom
    Elementary

    Friday
    2.5 Men
    New or returning comedy
    Hawaii 5-O
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    60 Minutes
    The Amazing Race
    The Good Wife
    CSI

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