CBS: 'The Mentalist' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


bear-aware

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hostages :oops: 0.56
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.59
The Mentalist :cry: :cry: 0.59
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.63
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.79
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.83
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Mom :) :) :) :) 0.93
Two and a Half Men :) :) :) :) 1.00
The Crazy Ones :) :) :) :) 1.09
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.36
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.27

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Because the cancellation of veteran CBS shows is heavily influenced by non-public economics like syndication deals (for shows produced by CBS) and license fees (for shows produced by others) it's not nearly so cut and dried as the Cancellation Bear's predictions for CBS rookie shows, where current ratings overwhelm other possible factors.

Besides Hostages, CBS is almost certain to cancel at least one more drama this season to make room for new dramas next season, and that drama will be a veteran. (If this spring's Intelligence happens to get renewed, that might mean yet another drama needs to go, but the bear will leave that until much later).

Because of those non-public factors, and the fact that the relative ratings between The Good Wife and The Mentalist are not likely to tip the scale heavily towards one or the other before the end of the season the bear is unlikely to have much more information in May about those two show's prospect than he does today.

When pushed at the end of the season (by himself) to predict up or down, the bear will take the fact that because The Mentalist is produced by Warner Brothers, it is more likely to meet its end this season than The Good Wife, which is produced by CBS, so he might as well make the prediction today. And he has.

If more dramas need to be canceled to fit CBS's scheduling needs next Fall, The Good Wife is likely to be next (vs. one of the Friday dramas), but that's a topic for another (probably many other) posts.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Feedback

    Warner Bros is CBS’ best friend. They produce pretty much all of CBS’ hit shows, especially CBS biggest show, TBBT. They want to keep them happy. I bet Mentalist gets renewed.

  • Dan

    @Feedback – If a show doesn’t make a network money, a network isn’t going to keep it just because another show that makes money that is produced by the same company as the first show is a megahit.

    So FOX produces Modern Family but did that stop ABC from cancelling Back in the Game because the network (ABC) and FOX studios may or may not be best friends. It doesn’t make sense from a business standpoint, if Mentalist is CBS’s lowest rated veteran drama, and they don’t produce it, whats the point of keeping it for another season.

    @Ultima – Or CBS could just cancel the Good Wife and air Elementary/Hawaii 5-0 Sundays at 9 and 10 and move CSI to Fridays at 9, freeing a drama slot on both Wed at 10 and Thur at 10. For the third drama slot if they don’t want a new drama airing Mondays at 10, they could move Person of Interest to that slot and possibly launch the new NCIS spinoff Tuesdays at 9 (bumping NCIS LA to 10) or air the spinoff (If picked up at) Tuesdays at 10. If CBS wants to keep the 2 hour comedy block on both nights next season and launch 3 new dramas and keep Undercover Boss on Fridays, that means 3 drama slots have to be freed up.

    In addition to freeing up that Hostages/Intelligence slot, CBS would be more likely to cancel The Good Wife, The Mentalist and then next season move 2 other syndication ready dramas to that night to air (avoiding new series that night) Even if Intelligence improves over Hostages even marginally, I cant see Intelligence getting renewed. Like CHAOS, Miami Medical, Golden Boy, and NYC 22, CBS would rather pick up a fall drama rather than renew an OK midseason drama. Criminal Minds Suspect Behavior was the closest CBS had to renewing a midseason drama but ultimately they chose CSI NY.

    Since CBS is somewhat predictable with scheduling, here’s my guess

    Sundays
    7:00 60 Minutes
    8:00 The Amazing Race
    9:00 Hawaii 5-0
    10:00 Elementary

    Mondays
    8:00 HIMYM Spinoff or other NEW COMEDY
    8:30 2 Broke Girls
    9:00 Mike & Molly
    9:30 Mom
    10:00 Person of Interest

    Tuesdays
    8:00 NCIS
    9:00 NCIS NO
    10:00 NCIS LA

    Wednesdays
    8:00 Survivor
    9:00 Criminal Minds
    10:00 NEW DRAMA

    Thursdays
    8:00 The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 NEW COMEDY
    9:00 Two and a Half Men
    9:30 The Millers
    10:00 NEW DRAMA

    Fridays
    8:00 Undercover Boss
    9:00 CSI
    10:00 Blue Bloods

    In this schedule CBS launches 2 new comedies and 3 dramas, keeps the most stable comedies and dramas. Hawaii 5-0 and Elementary would probably work well on Sundays, as well as POI moving to Tues. CBS could keep Tuesday completely NCIS and then air new dramas Wed at 10 and Thur at 10. CSI would be a good fit Fri at 9. No new dramas should ever air Sundays, Fridays and now we know Monday nights.

  • ChadCronin

    This headline makes me sad too. I wouldn’t mind seeing the show go another 1-2 seasons with a new storyline as well with Red John wrapped up this year finally.

  • omabin

    @Dan,

    So you imagine CBS, which is as you’ve said, a predictable network, would move:
    – Elementary
    – Hawaii Five-0 (two seasons in a row)
    – Person of Interest (two seasons in a row)
    – NCIS LA
    – CSI

    All the while premiering 4 hours of new programming? That schedule will never happen. Here is something much more likely to happen:

    Monday
    How I Met Your Father + 2 Broke Girls + Bubble Comedy + Mike and Molly
    New Drama

    Tuesday
    NCIS
    NCIS LA
    Person of Interest

    Wednesday
    New Drama
    Criminal Minds
    CSI

    Thursday
    The Big Bang Theory + New Comedy + Bubble Comedy + Bubble Comedy
    Elementary

    Friday
    Undercover Boss
    H50
    Blue Bloods

    Sunday
    The Amazing Race
    Survivor
    The Good Wife

    Only Survivor moves and potential a bubble comedy from Thursdays to Mondays. Outside chance of LA also moving to Mondays at 10 and them launching the 2nd new drama Tuesdays at 9 (especially if it’s the third NCIS) rather than Mondays at 10. While launching 3 hours (potentially 3.5 if they don’t renew a third bubble comedy) of new shows, which is their normal (this year they had 3 new hours too, last year 3.5)

    If Intelligence succeeds it’s a different conversation, but for the time being, I think CBS will be fine just canceling The Mentalist.

  • omabin

    Also, my schedule also works if you want to put Elementary on Sundays at 9 instead of Survivor. Just change the timeslot for the second new drama. I do like mine better because I see Survivor doing better on Sundays than Elementary and because I think Wednesdays at 8 is a better slot to launch a drama than Thursdays at 10.

  • One eye

    Mentalist being cancelled would leave Bruno heller to do something new? Like Rome2)

  • Wn

    Bruno Heller already has a new gig… A batman prequel.

    “He recently nabbed a rare straight-to-series commitment at Fox for the Warner Bros. Batman prequel Gotham, centering on the character of Commissioner Gordon.”

    I would love to see The Mentalist renewed. On the other hand, I think Simon Baker et al would enjoy new projects.

  • Ana

    I agree CBS isn’t giving the fair treatment to TM! They should have put to 9PM or so! I’m sure TM would have a higher rating at 9AM…

  • CBSviewer

    CBS next fall Schedule:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    8:30 – The Millers
    9:00 – HIMYM spin-off
    9:30 – Mom
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles
    10:00 – Person of Interest

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – CSI

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – The Crazy Ones
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Charmed Reboot / Undercover Boss
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Elementary
    10:00 – The Good Wife

    Thoughts ?

  • Dano

    Please do not cancel the Mentalist. One of my favorite shows. Move it to another night when it does not have to go on at 10:30 -10:45 Sunday nights because of football.

  • remee

    I have never seen such a decline in the energy and chemistry between cast members. None of the cast has any enthusiasm. It’s embarrassing to watch them.
    No wonder the two cast members that got married recently are leaving. They
    were completely unable to pull off that there is any chemistry between them
    anymore.

  • Yetti

    They’re running both mentalist and the good wife by the start times being all over the place. Football moves these shows all about, earlier later, sometimes unscheduled.

  • Dan

    @Omabin – CBS isn’t moving Survivor to Sundays. Not gonna happen, especially not the Sundays at 9 slot. Its always been an 8:00 series. Also its more than likely that CBS will try out 3 new dramas next fall (back to predictability however this season was a test to comedy expansion, hence only 1 new drama) so bye bye Good Wife. And I cant see them airing new dramas on Sundays.

    Here’s the thing, CBS is predictable in certain ways (Like NCIS will never be moved from Tues at 8, Criminal Minds and Survivor will be on Wed, Comedy will be Mon 8-10 and now Thur 8-10) however all the scheduling moves I mentioned are either a result of shows airing in slots that aren’t working for them anymore (CSI, Elementary, and POI) Plus CBS’s viewership this season while still good compared to other networks, is not impressive. Especially considering the fact that they have 1 new drama this season which is a flop.

    Sundays and Fridays are syndication graveyards for CBS dramas, so in the likely event that both Good Wife and Mentalist are scrapped that means that 2 veterans need to be moved to Sundays to replace them. Elementary is a good candidate and CBS might see Hawaii 5-0 as a better fit for Sundays. Somehow those 2 might pair well together. CBS may consinder moving CSI to Fridays at 9 because CSI NY did respectable in the slot and CSI may do better than H50. Its all about using veterans in or nearing syndication to try to improve on the current slots and my Fridays and Sundays could be an improvement.

    The only reason I suggest a POI move to Mondays is that CBS might want a triple NCIS night should they pick up the spinoff. Also CBS may feel that a veteran airing at Mondays at 10 would do better than a new drama. (For example a show airing Tuesdays at 10 out of NCIS LA will likely do better than airing out of Mom or a comedy on Mondays at 10. Its possible that they keep the NCIS/NCIS LA/POI trio and air a new drama Mondays at 9. But going with them being predictable, they may try something new in the slot. 2011 it was Unforgettable and 2012 it was Vegas. Fall 2014 could see the new NCIS spinoff or a drama airing Mondays at 10, however given what happened with Hostages and the fact that NBC will probably air a new drama post Voice next season I cant see CBS putting a new drama Mon at 10.

    Also using your schedule even if I had Elementary airing at 9 Sundays and Survivor staying put, thats basically this seasons schedule with the exception of Mentalist being gone and Good Wife moved to 10pm. I really think CBS will shake things up a bit. They never needed to in the past (2005-2010 seemed like their best years this decade)

    My schedule may seem odd but it does make sense in a lot of ways. CBS has problem slots like Mon at 10 so airing a veteran that slot may make sense. Fridays and Sundays seem strictly for syndication veterans and cheap reality at 8. Tues, Wed and Thur at 10 seem like ideal slots to launch shows because they might do well out of established veterans, (NCIS LA, Criminal Minds, and TAAHM (should it keep its Thur at 10 slot) (Why should CBS waste those prime slots airing veterans out of veterans?)

  • Rob R

    CBS is not about to cancel its prestige program, “The Good Wife,” the only network drama with a shot to get nominated for an Emmy…..especially with the show on a creative upswing and in the Top 20 Most Popular Shows in the United States during the first two weeks of sweeps, despite late time period starts in the East and Central time zones.

  • kenny1949

    The producers have been treating this season of the Mentalist as if it is the last one. They have resolved the long run romance between van Pelt and Rigsby. Now they are resolving the Red John arc. I suspect that there will be a resolution of the Lisbon/Jane romance or lack of it as well. It is almost as if the producers knew that this season was most likely the end and they wanted to wrap all the story lines up in a proper manner instead of rushing to end it in the last 2 episodes.

  • latoya

    Hmmm. I guess that i will say that i don’t think that the mentalist is going to get cancelled. It just got nominated for the people choice awards and that means that the people chose it but it hasn’t won yet. I think it’s because of football. The show does better when it actually airs on time. Although if it was to get cancelled i would say bravo because well it had over 100 episodes. Although what’s this about syndication. The Mentalist is in syndication it was coming on like 54 times a day on tnt until recently.

  • Evan

    I think The Mentalist has a chance of being renewed since it’s in the 10 pm Sunday timeslot which is always hard on CBS since viewers can never tell if their shows will ever air on time or at all in The Mentalist’s case. I could see The Mentalist getting like a 13 episode renewal and maybe going to Fridays with Blue Bloods and Hawaii 5-0. CBS could do half the year with The Mentalist at 8 or 9 and then Undercover Boss for the other half. Then moving Elementary to Sunday’s at 10 to die until it reaches syndication.

    Also I feel like CSI could be cancelled. Its numbers have been dipping below 2 and the show is so old but I feel like CBS still wants to keep it around since its always been such a vital show on the network. Maybe CSI would be moved to Friday’s but we’ll see. Seems like the dramas might stay the same since all of CBS’ new dramas failed. Guess we’ll have to wait and see about Intelligence and see if that will take the Monday timeslot for next season

  • omabin

    @Dan,

    It doesn’t matter that your schedule makes sense because it’s not realistic at all. You talk about CBS being predictable, yet you have them making more moves than God knows what and moving shows two consecutive years. It won’t happen. Also, that thing that you mind of “Survivor being on Wednesdays at 8″ being a constant thing is a lie. It wasn’t that long ago that it was anchoring Thursdays. They can perfectly move it. You do realize this is only its 4th year on Wednesdays and that we are talking about a show that has been around since 2000, right? CBS moved Survivor to Wednesdays to take care of a problematic slot and take the opportunity to invest on Thursdays. The situation here is the same, as Wednesdays are by far the easiest day to attack at the moment and Sundays are a problematic slot.

    Also, you keep thinking wrongly in terms of how many dramas CBS will launch. It’s not about number of dramas, but number of hours. They launched 3 new hours this season, which is perfectly in line with their MO, as they typically launch 3/3.5 new hours. When was the last time CBS launched 4 new hours? Potentially even 4.5, because I think it’s likely they have to replace 3 comedies (How I Met Your Mother + 2 of the 4 bubble comedies). It’s totally uncharacteristic.

    Not to mention that even when they used to launch 3 new dramas, they were mostly launching the 3rd one on Fridays. I don’t ever recall they launching 3 new weekday dramas like that (not being ironic, I simply don’t remember, ready to be proven wrong). In the unlikely case that they do launch 4/4.5 new hours next fall (extremely unlikely, as I’ve explained before), the most likely case is that they simply order Undercover Boss again and that they launch a Friday drama as they had done in the past 3 seasons (Made in Jersey, A Gifted Man, Blue Bloods).

    I like your proactivity in making schedules but you often need to get your facts straight.

  • Lola

    I love lpove love the Mentalist! & I dont want to watch Batman prequel sorry Bruno. & if they’re gonna be cancelled that where’s my Jane/Lison romance???? its cruel to tease for so many seasons & show no payoff. ugh :(

  • Wanda Jones

    I never missed an episode until this latest obsession with the Red John theme. I could tolerate an occasional episode that dealt with the topic, but several weeks ago when it became clear that every episode would be about this, I stopped watching and DVR ing the show. As a background thread that affected Jane’s behavior, it was interesting, but not as the whole show. Maybe you should rename it “The Hunt for Red John”. I am sad. The show was so good for so long!

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