CBS: 'The Mentalist' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


bear-aware

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Hostages :oops: 0.56
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.59
The Mentalist :cry: :cry: 0.59
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.62
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.63
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.79
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.83
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.89
Mom :) :) :) :) 0.93
Two and a Half Men :) :) :) :) 1.00
The Crazy Ones :) :) :) :) 1.09
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.20
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.34
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.36
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.27

-
Because the cancellation of veteran CBS shows is heavily influenced by non-public economics like syndication deals (for shows produced by CBS) and license fees (for shows produced by others) it's not nearly so cut and dried as the Cancellation Bear's predictions for CBS rookie shows, where current ratings overwhelm other possible factors.

Besides Hostages, CBS is almost certain to cancel at least one more drama this season to make room for new dramas next season, and that drama will be a veteran. (If this spring's Intelligence happens to get renewed, that might mean yet another drama needs to go, but the bear will leave that until much later).

Because of those non-public factors, and the fact that the relative ratings between The Good Wife and The Mentalist are not likely to tip the scale heavily towards one or the other before the end of the season the bear is unlikely to have much more information in May about those two show's prospect than he does today.

When pushed at the end of the season (by himself) to predict up or down, the bear will take the fact that because The Mentalist is produced by Warner Brothers, it is more likely to meet its end this season than The Good Wife, which is produced by CBS, so he might as well make the prediction today. And he has.

If more dramas need to be canceled to fit CBS's scheduling needs next Fall, The Good Wife is likely to be next (vs. one of the Friday dramas), but that's a topic for another (probably many other) posts.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Jake

    CHECK IT OUT! THIS WILL BE CBS’ 2014 FALL SCHEDULE:
    Mon.
    8:00- The Millers
    8:30- 2 Broke Girls
    9:00- Mike & Molly
    9:30- HIMYM Spinoff- NEW
    10:00- Criminal Minds

    Tue.
    8:00- NCIS
    9:00- NCIS:LA
    10:00- NCIS: N.O.- NEW DRAMA

    Wed.
    8:00- Survivor
    9:00- Person Of Interest
    10:00- NEW DRAMA

    Thu.
    8:00- Big Bang Theory
    8:30- NEW COMEDY
    9:00- Two & 1/2 Men
    9:30- Crazy Ones
    10:00- CSI

    Fri.
    8:00- Undercover Boss
    9:00- Hawaii 5-0
    10:00- Blue Bloods

    Sun.
    7:00- 60min.
    8:00- Amazing Race
    9:00- Good Wife
    10:00- Elementary

  • jrh

    The ‘Red John” story line should had been done away with last year…SHOW HAS NOT REALLY GROWN…TIRED STORY LINES

  • Dan

    @Omabin – CBS launched 4 hours in 2010 and 2011. 3 dramas and 2 comedies and they could certainly do it next fall. CBS knows that Sunday and Friday are TV graveyards for syndication shows. No new series should ever air on those nights and they know that Sunday nights this season are a big problem so a solution. Move Elementary to Sundays at 10 and Hawaii 5-0 to Sundays at 9 where both series will probably do better than current occupants Mentalist and Good Wife. Move CSI to Fridays at 9. THere you have 4 veterans CSI, Blue Bloods, Elementary, and Hawaii 5-0 airing out for syndication.

    The point of my schedule was to move proven shows like those to weak spots and quite possibly Person of Interest to Mondays at 9, because if its really such a strong show, it will do better there because a new drama would be more likely to work out Tues at 10 than Mon at 10. New dramas airing Tues 10, Wed 10, and Thur at 10 seem like a good idea because they will be airing out of veterans. (Or maybe NCIS LA could move to 10 so NCIS NO could be sandwiched between them, but more than likely it will end up at 10).

    The last time CBS launched a new drama Tues-Wed-Thur was Fall 2006 with Smith, Jericho, and Shark. That was a while ago but thats exactly why they have to do it again. 2 new comedies spread between Mon and Thur as well as 4 veterans spread between 2 nights and likely 2 series from this season (Mom and Millers) split between 2 nights.

    CBS’s dramas clearly aren’t as highly rated as they used to be so those drastic changes are necessary in order to not only accommodate 3 new dramas with Undercover Boss and the 2 comedy blocks but to strategize a new way to beat the competition.

    In the past they didn’t need to make that many changes because all of their shows are highly rated but this year a lot of shows aren’t working in the slots that they are in.

  • Hel-luhr

    Too early to tell with Good Wife. It’s on a creative high and eking out better ratings than it has in awhile.

    Mentalist is heading toward a climax of years of story, and then headed into uncharted waters. If the post-Red John stories don’t ignite interest anew, this will likely be its last season.

  • sally

    cancel the horrible Bad Wife

  • Melanie

    I wonder if CBS will abandon the expanded comedy block at 9 on Thursdays? If they intend to let Two & A Half Men go (due to cost), or move it back to floundering Mondays, I would think they’d have to be considereing it. That would free up an hour for a new drama – maybe the new NCIS which ought to come with a built-in audience.
    I agree with the CB. The Mentalist is the low hanging fruit for CBS to cancel this season.

  • musicalnotextr

    THE GOOD WIFE actually has hype right now, unlike THE MENTALIST. I think THE MENTALIST will get cancelled because its hype has died already. Since many critics are saying TGW is showing some its best episodes ever right now (this was a show that still gets lots of Emmy nods for a network show), CBS may renew it but move it to a new night (since THE WALKING DEAD is really hurting the networks right now).

  • Niallerz24

    I think The Good Wife will see a season 6. The ratings have been good-ish the last couple of episodes and hitting back over the 10 million viewer mark, unlike the Mentalist. If the show can keep averaging these ratings for the rest of the year then the show might have a chance of renewal.

  • Dan

    @Melanie – I don’t think so, CBS was working toward that 2 hour block since Big Bang moved to Thursdays in 2010. I think CBS is going to let it stick around and have it develop.

    I think Good Wife is dead, but the only way I see CBS renewing it would be for midseason. If they test out 3 new dramas, If one is likely to fail, it doesnt hurt to have a veteran drama in their back pocket. Though unlike NBC, ABC or FOX, CBS rarely renews dramas for midseason. Jericho may have been the last one.

  • sally

    worst show on TV THE GOOD WIFE

  • Summer

    Anyone notice the two shows in jeopardy air on sunday night? I think the ratings are low because they are constantly being pushed back due to football. Please don’t cancel the Mentalist it’s my fav show!!

  • Will

    I know this is an article about ratings and not quality but the Good Wife has been better than any show I’ve watched on network television in years. It tops its peaks and is consistently entertaining while never dumbing itself down in lazy attempts to reach a wider audience. It’s too smart of a show to be a big hit. Its characters are too fresh and complex to absorb in one episode. It’s what the networks used to do more often. I’m glad CBS has stuck with the Good Wife so we could enjoy the show growing into what it has become this year. If it’s not at the top of many Emmy voters best list, it will be a crime. But a bigger creative crime would be CBS killing a show at the height of its power. Then again, maybe they need to make room for another cookie cutter procedural show that will surely be a big hit with a broader and less demanding audience.

  • Yvette “Wiz” Brown

    The cancellation bear had The Mentalist and The Good Wife goners last year. I’m not so sure they won’t survive another year.

    1. Even though the demos are low, do they know that any new hour long drama will bring in 9+ million views?

    2. Sunday is brutal

    3. Sports overruns have played havoc with the ratings.

    4. Last year’s “new” hits (POI and Elementary) are struggling this year.

    5. Hostages has been a bomb and who knows how the 2 other new shows (intelligence & wreckless) will do

    6. they may reduce their comedy hours in favor of drama

    7. depends on how good their pilots are

  • Danny

    CBS has been plotting the demise of The Mentalist ever since they moved it to Sundays. Constant pre-emption by Football and losing audience due to the move pretty much set its fate in motion. The people that got tired of the Red John story are the ones who stopped watching when it moved to Sundays. The whole show was built on the Red John story. Hello!!!!! That’s why you all watched at the start. Now you should watch to see it end. The show has never been better. You should all be ashamed. Here is one of the few chances you will get to see a good show actually have an ending.

  • Robette

    “I sincerely doubt it. Elementary is exactly the type of show that does well in syndication.”

    What facts are you basing that opinion on? What other procedural show with such low first-run ratings has done well in syndication? This isn’t 1995 with a ton of cable networks who will fill blocks of time with any old cop show anymore.

    On the most recent syndication chart only three hourlong dramas made the top 20: Law & Order: CI, Law & Order: SVU and House. House is the last hour long drama that’s not part of the CSI, L&O or NCIS franchises to have turned into a consistent syndicated hit, and it’s first-run ratings were huge in its prime, plus it got a bunch of Emmys and critical acclaim to boot.

    The Good Wife never got monster ratings but it’s performed well and consistently and has had better ratings than Elementary. Plus it’s gotten a lot of critical acclaim and Emmy attention, and even then CBS had to do a split deal for it to sell it for syndication.

  • Holly

    @Robette,

    On the most recent syndication chart only three hourlong dramas made the top 20:

    You’re looking at the wrong charts. That chart is affiliate syndication (local stations air the shows during hours not programmed by the national station). Cable syndication is something different. Those numbers show up in the daily cable charts.

  • KuuipoSays

    I’ll miss The Mentalist if it’s canceled, but it had a good run. I’m glad they concluded the Red John saga this year. IT would have been awful if we’d watched six years and never found out who he was. But, it’s obvious the cast and writers don’t think they’ll be back by the ending. The last thing he says to Lisbon is “i’ll miss you.” Along with finishing Red John I think it’s certain to be canceled.

  • nancy truax farmile

    please do not cancel Mentalist! Please.

  • L

    I love the mentalist, but not sure i will follow the show after tow maain characters are leaving the show.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures