FOX: 'Brooklyn 9-9' Now Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


bear-in-area

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.75
Dads :oops: 0.75
Brooklyn Nine-Nine :) :) :) :) 0.85
Bob's Burgers renewed 0.92
American Dad final season on Fox 0.96
Glee renewed 0.99
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Bones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
The Simpsons renewed 1.25
Sleepy Hollow renewed 1.46

-
Brooklyn 9-9 ratings started well, but by its third episode it had fallen to a 1.4 rating (just 68% of Fox's ratings average that week), and the Cancellation Bear predicted it to be likely to be canceled. However, as with all early predictions, changing results often cause changing predictions.

Since that third episode, Brooklyn 9-9 ratings have risen, while the rest of Fox's scripted ratings have drifted downward. Its most recent 2 week's 1.6 ratings were each over 85% of Fox's scripted rating average for those weeks which now indicates likely renewal.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • gerry

    awesome on bk99! of the new crop of comedies this season its truly one of the funnier ones.

  • Chris

    You could have shifted it to “Likely to Be Renewed” after Fox committed to putting it on after the Super Bowl. How many post Super Bowl programs don’t get picked up for the following season?

  • AndrewOSU

    Score! This is the one new show I really liked that I wasn’t sure would make it. So glad its ratings have been better

  • Dan S

    YEEEEESSSSSS for B9-9, once it got the coveted post SB slot you knew Fox had high hopes for it.

  • r0ckmypants

    @Everyone – Yes, Brooklyn Nine-Nine is airing after the Super Bowl, but New Girl is airing in the slot immediately following the game.

  • Bradley

    If Raising Hope does well, what will that mean for Mindy?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “You could have shifted it to “Likely to Be Renewed” after Fox committed to putting it on after the Super Bowl.”

    Its relative ratings had not yet improved. And past the initial flurry of flop cancellations early in the season, there is no reason for me to “rush” predictions. In fact, with ~30 headlines to fill each season per network, there is every reason for me to spread things out :)

  • Me

    What a waste of slot for New Girl. The show is painfully unfunny. At least B99 will get some of NG’s remains.

  • Ultima

    @Chris
    You could have shifted it to “Likely to Be Renewed” after Fox committed to putting it on after the Super Bowl. How many post Super Bowl programs don’t get picked up for the following season?

    In the past 30 years… The Last Precinct (1986), Hard Copy (1987), Grand Slam (1990), Davis Rules (1991), The Good Life (1994), and Extreme (1995).

    Yes, I realize that isn’t any recently, mostly because the networks stopped putting unproven shows on after the Super Bowl after so many failures. Since Extreme, there’s only been three freshman Super Bowl lead-outs (Family Guy, American Dad and Undercover Boss).

    By the way, there’s only been one freshman series to premiere in the fall and then get the post Super Bowl timeslot in its first season (The John Larroquette Show); it was renewed, but that’s an extremely small sample size.

  • Ultima

    I obviously forgot to include Elementary in my comment! :(

  • Marc

    I still thin Dads should be increased to 2 sad faces from the 1 sad face.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Brooklyn 99 will be renewed

  • David James

    Just like Brooklyn, if Mindy and Dads can hold steady this week and next, then I think they should be upgraded to likely renewed and likely cancelled respectively. Mindy is also a second season show and Dads has potential for a short fall run next season after Family Guy before Bordertown premieres.

  • Katiebug

    @Me
    What a waste of slot for New Girl. The show is painfully unfunny.

    So true!

  • Nasir

    Waiting for The Following!

  • Richard

    Fox is heading for a crisis point next year, and so they need to do everything they can to launch successful dramas. X Factor has been a costly mess from the start, and its latest ratings shows it needs to be pulled after this year. Glee is ending next year, and Bones will be in its 10th Season (therefore, incredible costly to keep the cast on much longer). The Simpsons and American Idol, are again costly, aging shows.

    If they aren’t careful, they are either going to have half their schedule disappear at once, or they are going to have to desperately hold on to shows that are expensive to make and don’t actually make them any money any more, just to plug the gaps.

  • Scandalicious

    I would love to see Brooklyn 99 renewed! It is hilarious. I am actually not so sure Mindy will be canceled either through because with the demise of X Factor I am thinking that FOX is going to have several hours to fill next season with new original content and they may want to keep anything that is a relative ratings success. They just can’t honestly be considering keeping X Factor for another season at this point.

    If they don’t think things over carefully they are going to crash next season. I hope that they are able to find a it with Almost Human. That would at least give them a little more confidence going into next season.

  • Mark

    That’s good news. I like that show. Mindy has made it longer than I thought. Not going to miss it when it’s gone.

  • James

    FOX has to keep 2 hours of comedies on Tuesday, so at least two anchors are needed. Dads OR Brooklyn 99 will be one of the anchors at 8. It’s likely to be Brooklyn 99, but FOX wants to play safe and keep both shows in place for a season. The Voice (Results Show) will move to 8 in mid-season confronting both sitcoms, so not messing up the lineup will be the best strategy.

  • omabin

    I’ve had it as likely renewal for a while now, so I agree. Other than that, my only disagreement here is Dads. I don’t think you can justify that big of a gap between it, B99 and Mindy. I mean, it’s only a 0.2 difference between it and B99 in most recent airings, yet you have one as certain cancellation and the other as likely renewal. At the very least, I think Dads should be likely renewal and a case could be made for bubble.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures