NBC: 'Dracula' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


active-bear-sign

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.72
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.76
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.81
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
The Michael J. Fox Show :cry: :cry: 0.83
Revolution :| :| :| 0.91
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.93
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Blacklist :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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It seemed like just yesterday that Dracula premiered with a 1.8 adults 18-49 rating, on Friday, on NBC. Fan hopes were justifiably high, as was the Cancellation Bear's initial prediction.

After losing half that 18-49 audience in just two weeks, last week's 0.9 rating now makes Dracula "likely to be canceled".

Why not certain to be canceled? The bear's swing and a miss on Hannibal last season gives the bear a bit of a pause. Plus, he may need another headline later this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Jami

    Grimm and SVU are going to hit some lows this year, mark my word.

  • Ultima

    @Jami
    Grimm and SVU are going to hit some lows this year, mark my word.

    Any other bold predictions? Perhaps that the sun will rise in the east?

  • TV God

    I think Sean Saves the World will be picked up by TVLand, it’s a perfect show for that network. Since Sean’s production company produces two of TVLand’s sitcoms, I would see TVLand picking it up.

  • Dan

    Dracula is likely one and done for NBC. It will air its first and only season and then be cancelled in May. Same for Betrayal, Hostages, and Wonderland. Hannibal will likely got he way of Smash or Touch by midseason.

    Grimm, SVU, Chicago Fire and Blacklist will certainly be renewed and as for Revolution and Parenthood. Both cases are different.

    Revolution’s numbers are on par with SVU right now so that means how it does in the spring will determine if it gets a third season. Right now its strictly 50/50.

    Parenthood will have 90 episodes by seasons end. Its numbers have declined and it is expensive but like Chuck or 30 Rock, NBC may give it a final season for midseason to not only get the show over 100 episodes but to give the series closure thats feasible.

    On the comedy side if NBC saves one new comedy from this season it will probably be Michael J FOX Show. Since I cant see any one NBC’s midseason comedies doing well (Those midseason comedies never do) NBC could either start over again or keep MJF Show. Sean Saves the World is dead and its 5 additional episodes are a bridge for Undateable.

    In terms of Parks & Rec and Community. Both series could get short final seasons for next year but what is certain about both veterans is that they are very close to the end.

  • Jami

    @Ultima
    Posted November 12, 2013 at 2:06 PM
    Here’s a bold prediction you are not very likable and don’y have a lot of friends, with that type of sarcasm. You probably still live at home in your mother’s basement, and you only watch network tv, because they won’t pay for cable.
    @ Ultima never respond to my post again you are a cyber bully!

    Perhaps that the sun will rise in the east? LMAO
    Man did you think that one up yourself or did a friend help you. Oh that’s right you don’t have friends just sarcasm.

  • Jami

    Here is a BOLD PREDICTION
    REVOLUTION will be renewed for a third season because the sun sets in the west!

  • Dan

    @Jami – A lot of shows have fantastic premieres and then drop week to week until their seasons end. Look at Malibu Country. Dracula will finish its order then be replaced by Crossbones and neither will be heard from again. And this seasons split season experimenting will be done.

  • Chris J

    @Dan

    As far a comedies go About A Boy will likely do well since it’ll be behind the Voice for it’s entire run. It’ll be NBC’s save face renewal from this season. Sadly it’ll probably bomb next season just as Up All Night, Whitney and NBC’s other sophomore comedies did last year.

    The Michael J Fox show is done after hitting a 1.0 last week.

    At this rate Parks and Community are both becoming sure renewals for next year.

  • Chris J

    @Michael

    NBC probably won’t release 4 new comedies next season after what happened this year. They will probably renew at least 2 for the fall schedule (my guess would be About A Boy and Parks and Rec), and only release 2 new comedies for the fall. Community will probably again be midseason filler.

    Also 3 new dramas would be too much for NBC to promote. I imagine at a minimum Biggest Loser will be on the Fall schedule to absorb some hours, and NBC’s space reality show could be on the schedule as well.

  • StevenD

    I think it’s very likely that The Biggest Loser will be off Tuesday next year and time share with the new Space competition show with The Biggest Loser in the fall and the Space show in the winter post SuperBowl, looking to mimmick The Voice. Thursday at 8 is an ideal time to reboot the night Midseason and focus on Wednesdays in the fall.

  • Chris J

    After taking some feedback from Anthony in the last NBC related thread here is my mock schedule for next fall

    Monday:
    The Voice (2 Hour) {same day/time}
    NEW Drama.

    Tuesday:
    The Voice Results {same day/time}
    About A Boy {same day/time}
    NEW COMEDY
    The Blacklist {new day/time}

    Wednesday:
    Chicago Fire {new day/time}
    NEW Drama or Reality [Space Race] programming
    Chicago PD {same day/time}

    Thursday:
    The Biggest Loser {new day/time}
    NEW Tina Fey comedy
    Parks and Recreation {same day/new time}
    Law and Order SVU {new day/time}

    Friday:
    Dateline {same day/time}
    Grimm {same day/time}
    NEW News Magazine or Reality Programming

    In this schedule there are only 4-5 new programs for the fall. This past season there were 6 (Blacklist/Ironside/Welcome to the Family/Sean Saves the World/Michael J Fox/Dracula).

    Also only 5 programs are moving to new days and times, compared to 6 programs this past season (Biggest Loser/The Voice/Chicago Fire/Revolution/Parks/Parenthood

    This schedule assumes bubble dramas Parenthood and Revolution are cancelled, and Chicago PD is picked up. Anything of course could happen though. If NBC does not pick up Chicago PD and the other midseason dramas bomb, Revolution and/or Parenthood could be renewed.

    This schedule also assumes About A Boy is picked up and it keeps it’s Tuesday post-Voice slot next season.

  • Chris J

    @StevenD

    I think that it is probably NBC’s plan to launch the Space Race reality show out of the Superbowl.

    The Thursday 8pm slot is a likely slot for the high profile reality competition.

    It would be wise for NBC to launch the show in the fall and if it is a moderate success order a second cycle and launch it post-Superbowl just like the Voice a few years ago. That could easily be the remedy to Thursdays.

    If they when they launch it in the fall it is a dud, they can just air The Blacklist post Superbowl instead.

  • iSayso

    @Jami:

    Your word sucks so hard, please get off the internet.

  • StevenD

    @Chris J
    My thinking is that Thursday next fall could be like this:

    8- The Biggest Loser
    9- Parks/ Community 13 episode final season
    10- Law and Order: SVU

    So they can kind of “get rid” of the old Thursday, then start fresh after the Super Bowl. It probably will look like yours though since I think Tina Fey’s comedy is set for the fall! Otherwise new comedies could launch Midseason

  • Owen

    What the Green Peace “Save the world one light bulb at a time” hipster Dracula isn’t racking up the ratings. Shocking…I’m not why NBC went this route. Breaking Bad proved that people will watch and even cheer for a evil main character. NBC really missed out by not making this Dracula more terrifying.

    Dracula has a sold premise and there was no need to mess with…they would have had more success going much darker…ah the bear will get to feed off of Draculas blood.

  • Dan

    @Chris J – You’re probably right, that’s assuming About a Boy will still air post voice. Its possible NBC might try to avoid the 3 way comedy competition, New Girl Vs. Goldbergs Vs. About a Boy. Airing Post Voice may only help so much, if a series doesn’t hold up then it doesn’t, but NBC could renew it as save face Though I thought so much that NBC would renew Go On as save face but they started from scratch. Maybe they wont renew anything but Community and Parks & Rec.

    If About a Boy gets renewed it would be the first time a David Walton and Benjamin Stockham midseason comedy gets a second season. Walton flopped with Perfect Couples and Bent previously on NBC while Stockham’s Sons of Tucson and 100 Penn failed. It would be the first time NBC has renewed a midseason comedy since Parks which is saying a lot. However I can tell you that if renewed About a Boy would just be moved and flop somewhere else thus ensuring the circle of NBC comedy failures would continue.

    The point is NBC is a wild card in terms of comedies, since 2009 (After Parks & Community premiered (NBC has had 18 comedy failures) of those failures, 16 were cancelled after 1 season (100 Questions, Outsourced, Perfect Couples, The Paul Resier Show, Free Agents, Bent, Best Friends Forever, Are You There Chelsea?, Go On, The New Normal, Animal Practice, Guys With Kids, 1600 Penn, Next Caller, Save Me, Welcome to the Family) and only 2 were renewed for second seasons (Up All Night & Whitney) but then did terribly in those seasons. The Michael J FOX Show and Sean Saves the World are victims of NBC’s terribly low rated Thursdays. At this point who knows what they will try to save.

    All I know if Community and Parks may get another season but they can’t go on forever. NBC may just end up scrapping all new comedies from this season and just start over.

    With FOX, NBC, and ABC I can at least somewhat guess to a certain degree what comedies will return but with NBC I can never figure it out.

  • crispy

    Dracula is pretty boring but atleast they tried something different. I think the problem was that its not young/hip enough to attract today’s audience. CW does Vampire shows better.

    Anyways, Dracula is getting cancelled along with one of Parenthood/Revolution depending on how the new dramas fare. All the comedies will get canceled. The Blacklist and Chicago Fire have good enough ratings to move and help out other nights. The comedy Thursday thing is over, i see NBC moving The Biggest Loser or that Space Reality program to Thursday@ 8pm. They should also develop another reality show in the place of The Biggest Loser, since those shows are rating higher than most of the dramas/comedies. If and when they find another reality hit, then they can try to launch new shows.
    Overall this is how i think the schedule will look.

    Monday
    The Voice
    NEW Drama

    Tuesday
    NEW Reality Show
    The Voice
    The Blacklist

    Wednesday
    NEW Drama
    Chicago Fire
    Law and Order SVU

    Thursday
    The Biggest Loser/Space reality show
    NEW Tina Fey comedy
    Community/Parks & Rec
    Revolution

    Friday
    Dateline
    Grimm
    Crossbones/Hannibal/new genre show

  • flamingo

    I’m loving Dracula! I really hope it gets many seasons! I thought that the adjusted ratings (the ones including dvr stats)made it second on Friday nights?

  • Chris J

    @StevenD

    That sounds about right.

    My worry is NBC launching an unproven show out of the Superbowl. It could be a huge blunder if the show is a hot mess (pretty much every reality show NBC has done since The Voice).

    The Space Race concept doesn’t seem interesting enough to be entertaining personally, so I’m hoping that somehow NBC can do it right.

    I would hope they would at a minimum test the show out in the fall before giving it a coveted Superbowl slot, but that would be too smart for NBC.

  • Chris J

    @Dan

    “The Goldbergs” won’t be much of an issue this spring since its ratings are already in the low 1s.

    The Super Bowl boosted “New Girl” may be a threat to “About A Boy” becoming a “hit”, but honestly if it rates higher than a 1.5 in the spring, it’ll be a sure renewal since all of NBC’s comedies are doing dismally.

    The bar is set so low I don’t see About A Boy not getting renewed unless of course NBC wants to start over next year. Unlike Go On, which was cancelled, About A Boy likely won’t have the same ratings drop (remember Go On hit a 1.0 last spring) since it’ll be behind The Voice it’s whole run.

    Anyway, from the few pilot previews online it seems About A Boy is at least a better show than NBC’s fall comedies (albeit a bit vanilla).

    But as you stated, the likelihood of About A Boy failing next season is HIGH.

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