NBC: 'Dracula' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 12th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


active-bear-sign

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 10, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.72
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.76
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.81
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
The Michael J. Fox Show :cry: :cry: 0.83
Revolution :| :| :| 0.91
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.93
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Blacklist :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.92

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It seemed like just yesterday that Dracula premiered with a 1.8 adults 18-49 rating, on Friday, on NBC. Fan hopes were justifiably high, as was the Cancellation Bear's initial prediction.

After losing half that 18-49 audience in just two weeks, last week's 0.9 rating now makes Dracula "likely to be canceled".

Why not certain to be canceled? The bear's swing and a miss on Hannibal last season gives the bear a bit of a pause. Plus, he may need another headline later this season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Chris J

    @crispy

    I love your schedule!

    Your Tuesday 8pm Reality slot may be good for the Space Race in the fall.

    It would be wise for NBC to launch the Space Race before or after the Voice on Tuesdays to give it a high sampling before it’s likely inevitable post-Super Bowl boost.

    At that point it can move to Thursdays to replace Biggest Loser.

  • Chris J

    @crispy
    @StevenD

    Taking both of your ideas what NBC could do is:

    Monday
    The Voice
    NEW Drama

    Tuesday
    The Voice
    NEW The Space Race (Fall)/Comedies (Spring)
    The Blacklist

    Wednesday
    Chicago Fire
    NEW Drama
    Chicago PD

    Thursday
    The Biggest Loser(fall)/ The Space Race (post-Superbowl spring)
    NEW Tina Fey comedy
    About A Boy
    Law and Order:SVU (@crispy still not sure if Revolution is renewable)

    Friday
    Parks (final season/spackle order)
    Community (final season/spackle order)
    Grimm
    Crossbones/Hannibal/new genre show

    It may be a bit much to move the Space Race from Tuesday to Thursday in the spring, but it wouldn’t be bad idea. That way the show can at least benefit from the Voice as a lead in before getting the Superbowl boost because after that I would imagine NBC would want the show to standing on it’s own and anchor a night (Thursdays seem like the most likely night).

  • Ultima

    @StevenD
    So they can kind of “get rid” of the old Thursday

    Why not just get rid of it in May? Do they really need another five months of shows pulling low 1s (or sub-1s) before finally deciding to reboot?

    Bold option: if The Blacklist really takes off (3.0+ all spring), move it to Thursday 9pm and put something solid behind it at 10pm. 8pm will still suck, but that’s fine; it’ll basically look like ABC has lately.

    Safe option: just air The Biggest Loser from 8-10pm. It gets solid ratings, it’s cheaper than scripted programming, and it’s not a big deal if people watch CBS until 8:30 before tuning in.

  • mike

    dracula started well and its dying out

  • k:Alex

    In my opinion their are 2 possible choices, the schedule as I expect because NBC and the advertiser don’t like too much changes, but the other schedule would do better.

    What I expect
    Monday
    8:00 Voice 4.0
    9:00 Voice
    10:00 New Medical Drama (I think a red cross theme could do well) 2.9

    Tuesday
    8:00 Voice 3.0
    9:00 The Blacklist 2.8
    10:00 Chicago PD or something New 2.0

    Wednesday
    8:00 Chicago Fire 1.9
    9:00 New Drama 1.8
    10:00 L&O: SVU 1.7

    Thursday
    8:00 The Biggest Loser 1.9
    9:00 Comedy Tina Fey 1.6
    9:30 Comedy 1.5
    10:00 Revolution 1.5

    Friday
    8:00 Dateline 1.1 / Comedy
    9:00 Grimm 1.4
    10:00 New Drama / Hannibal 1.2

    Save it for when something fails (so it can be replaced immediately)
    \ Community Final 12 Ep
    \ Parks&Rec Final 12 Ep
    \ Parenthood Final 15 Ep
    \ Space Race mid season show

    + The Blacklist is safe and is a good lead in
    + Comedy’s have a lead-in
    – Thursday could be higher
    – The Wednesday could brake because of the 9pm drama

    ___________________________________________________________

    What I want
    Monday
    8:00 Voice 4.0
    9:00 Voice
    10:00 New Medical Drama (I think a red cross theme could do well) 2.9

    Tuesday
    8:00 Comedy – About a Boy (it has a lot of positive reactions) 1.9
    8:30 Comedy – Family 1.7
    9:00 Voice 3.3
    10:00 Chicago PD or something New 2.1

    Wednesday
    8:00 New Drama 1.6
    9:00 Chicago Fire 2.0
    10:00 L&O: SVU 1.7

    Thursday
    8:00 The Biggest Loser 1.9
    9:00 The Blacklist 2.5 (maybe the only criminal show in this slot)
    10:00 Revolution 1.7 (if it will get a 3 season)

    Friday
    8:00 Dateline 1.1 / Comedy – Multicam
    9:00 Grimm 1.4
    10:00 New Drama / Hannibal 1.2

    Save it for when something fails (so it can be replaced immediately)
    \ Community Final 12 Ep
    \ Parks&Rec Final 12 Ep
    \ Parenthood Final 15 Ep
    \ Space Race mid season show

    + Thursday could be back in business
    + They have 2 10PM shows with a Voice lead in
    + Only 3 new drama’s to promote
    – No lead-in for their comedy, so About a Boy must be good
    – The Blacklist could fail
    – Comedy Thursday is gone for a while until they find 2 new ‘hit’ shows.

  • James

    @k:Alex
    Are those numbers premiere ratings or season averages? Because you’re too optimistic with some of the shows’ performances.

  • Jami

    @iSayso

    Ifyousayso.

  • Randall

    I love the show and hate these pathetic, idiotic, emotionless critics. Keep the show running, kill off grimm and all these critics.

  • Randall

    I only like Blacklist, Dracula, and Revolution. All the others can go to hell, alongside these critics.

  • k:Alex

    @James
    No the first month of fall.

  • StevenD

    @Ultima

    Your schedule sounds good, but I wouldn’t count on NBC getting rid of NBC Thursday comedies because they are stubborn. This gives them the fall to focus on Wednesdays then post Super Bowl for Thursday..

    Plus I see Parks getting a final 13 episode seventh season like 30 Rock, and Community may rate well (for NBC) with the return of Dan Harmon. These two are my favorite shows too, so I could just be biased…

  • City Kitty

    Oh NO!!!!!

    I am enjoying Dracula very much and look forward to it every week.

    Revolution, on the other hand, it just gosh Awful this season. Coming back from the dead, using the term ‘Patriot” in a derogatory manner. Just awful.

  • Jami

    I have a bold prediction, and I hope my words won’t hurt. REVENGE will not see a S4.
    Ithinkso.
    I like the internet is very user friendly.

  • Marsinvestigations1@gmail.com

    Marnie, Buffy actually was often top of the heap on The Wb when it aired. It would probably be comparable to a .9-1.1 w current CW standards.

  • Chris J

    @k:alex

    I like both of your schedules actually.

    Both would give NBC a far stronger lineup than this year, although I agree with @James you’re a little over-optimistic with some of your ratings predictions.

  • Bon Harris

    Well luckily Dracula is a limited series and it’s committed to it’s 10 episode pickup so it was never going to return next year anyway.

  • k:Alex

    Ok, my comedy predictions are too high, but most of the drama’s have decent ratings (for NBC).

    .
    I expect NBC will order big on comedy pilots and be extremely critical because of The MJ Fox Show disaster.

    They can’t afford another year with no new ‘ok doing’ comedy’s, they need something.
    (Because their old ‘ok doing’ comedy’s will end in a year, the quality go’s down and actors quit)

    And cut another our of comedy back is a idea, especially when one of the mid season drama’s is doing well, but a NBC without any comedy isn’t possible (I think).

  • Chris J

    @k:Alex

    Both of your schedules cut NBC’s comedy hours to only one, which I think could be possible after this disastrous fall. It all depends on how many comedies NBC renews.

    If About A Boy is renewed, which I suspect it will be, I think it’s possible NBC keeps an hour of comedy on Tuesday and an hour on Thursday.

    If anything the Thursday 9-10pm hour is the hour NBC is most likely to hold onto for comedies.

    If the Biggest Loser moves to Thursday 8-9pm I only expect it to get a 1.5 ratings average so whatever comedies NBC lands on in that hour still have to be self starters.

  • Ally Oop

    If I was NBC I think I would lessen the amount of comedies made and go for new dramas. I dont feel like doing right now but can anyone check what the success rates of NBCs comedies have been for the past five seasons? Have they had any comedies that stayed above 6 million?

  • Dan

    @Chris J – I doubt the “Superbowl” powered New Girl will suddenly make it a higher rated series, if its lucky it will stay in the 2.0-2.3 range. Even still whats NBC expecting out of Voice for About a Boy, maybe above a 2.0. If it gets that it may be renewed but again it will just move to Thursdays and flop. Its just 3 comedies airing at the same time won’t do well and where will Goldbergs and Trophy Wife even go if DWTS gets a results show in March?

    NBC should have gave The Michael J Fox Show a Voice boosted premiere. Without the Office, that Thursday night collapsed.

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