ABC: 'The Neighbors' Is Certain To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 18th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.49
Betrayal :oops: 0.49
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.58
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.66
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.71
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.82
Nashville :| :| :| 0.83
Back In The Game de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes 0.93
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 0.96
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Super Fun Night :oops: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.50
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.01

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While the Cancellation Bear's prediction for The Neighbors has been "certain to be canceled" since mid-October, other headlines kept elbowing that out of the way. Now, with no changes to the ABC predictions this week to otherwise claim the limelight, The Neighbors prediction finally gets its time in the headline.

“Why is Super Fun Night certain to be canceled, yet sitting beside a bunch of certain to be renewed shows?”

Super Fun Night's position in the list is determined by its ratings average, which has yet to “catch up” to its recent ratings declines.

However, its prediction is based primarily on the fact that it didn’t receive a full season order. There are very isolated instances of Fall premiere rookie shows without full season orders being renewed for a second season, but it’s not even remotely the way to bet.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Jeff (Canada)

    Any predictions on what soon-to-be-renewed shows will be ending NEXT season? I can see next season being the last for Once Upon A Time, and maybe Castle. And if SHIELD gets renewed, I can see it being canceled next season.

  • Nerdbot

    I know pretty much everyone is sure that Revenge will be renewed, but I’m still worried. However, its current situation and ABC’s attempt to bring back Body of Proof makes me think: why can’t ABC just stick with Revenge (as their low rated show that performs better than rookie shows) instead of trying to bring back a cast and crew (BoP’s) that have certainly moved on?

  • Skylar James

    What a terrible year (again) for ABC!

  • Scandalicious

    Not much has changed on the ABC front. I still wish they would realize what a great show they have in Trophy Wife and will move at midseason. I still wish ABC would find a way to get a larger audience to watch Nashville live. Next season is definitely looking like it will be the last for Revenge.

    On the bright side, The Goldbergs held up well this last week so maybe it is the start of it finding some real traction!

  • Mitchell

    @Nerdbot

    Um… they are. Last I heard the BOP thing fell through, and even if it didn’t, it’s not BOP or Revenge. They would both be on.

  • omabin

    @Jeff,

    ABC would need 3 renewable dramas in order to replace 3 veteran dramas. That’s a very bold prediction. Moreover, even if it does have them, it’s more likely that it tries to use them to replace DWTS then to replace a solid performer like Castle.

    Anyway, main topic:
    – I would keep both Trophy Wife and The Neighbrs as likely cancellations. ABC acts differently to its owned comedies. I can’t really argue with the certain prediction though.
    – Revenge and LMS are certain renewals for me

    I agree with everything else.

  • Boiler

    Hopefully ABC sticks with Nashville and Revenge. Mr Lee’s pronouncement in summer that they had a great development season was a bomb. They need to learn from BoP that new isn’t better

  • chloe

    @ Bill Gorman upgrade LMS to certain renewal, tim Doyle the producer announced in Twitter LMS have a full season order of 22 but there is a talk of 24 as well.

  • Jerry

    Revenge will definitely end by next season. The ratings are not sustainable for beyond that, and certainly not without the help of syndication.

    To be honest, I think Revenge should not have gone beyond its first season, it should really be a full one-season only drama, it would have been much better.

  • gumboot

    “And if SHIELD gets renewed, I can see it being canceled next season.”

    Yep, I think it’ll just manage a renewal and by this time next year will be a dead show walking.

  • Ather

    Neighbors have been lacking this season. Not sure why. Just missing something. Plus the theme song feels like it’s skipped a line.

    Once In Wonderland was supposed to be self contained (It has a definite end game). So I doubt it was ever coming back. I just don’t expect to see such spinoffs as they were oping to do.

  • Ronak

    Next season MIGHT be Castle’s last, but not because of its ratings. That is the final year of the cast’s contracts, and I can see both leads being ready to move on to new pastures.

    ABC has plenty on its plate to fix this season though. OUAT hitting below 2 this week could be a worrying sign of a future trend.

  • Matthew

    @ Jeff (Canada) here are my predictions of show that should get renewed that next should could most likely be their end
    ABC:
    Castle – its had a good run but I could really see this next season being the shows last
    Revenge – this is just a gut feeling I just don’t really see it going on past season 4
    NBC:
    Parks and Recreation – I just really feel like NBC is going to give it a shortened 13 episode final season though there is really nothing to base that prediction on ;)
    CBS:
    CSI- its had a really good run but I think its time to go ahead and pit this show off to pasture instead of keeping it going and ending it without a conclusion
    Two and a Half Men- Its just really time to go ahead and end it bit I don’t see why they can not go ahead and give it a final season unless they want to premiere a lot of new fall shows next year
    Fox:
    Glee- didn’t they announce next season to be the last or am I imaging that?
    Bones- its had a really good run but I feel like its just time to go ahead and end it
    The CW:
    I don’t really have any predictions for The CW sorry ;)

  • Carmen

    Neighbors have been lacking this season. Not sure why. Just missing something.

    I don’t think it would make a big enough difference for the Neighbors, but I think they should get rid of the Reggie Jackson – Amber storyline.

    It’s not working. They are pretty much blah together. In fact, I think Reggie is the weak link on the show in general. But if they must have him, I think they would be better served to expand on the “soul mate’ storyline.

  • FallerWanderer

    Love you bear!

  • Fred

    I have a good feeling about GOLDBERGS. Really needs to be moved asap.

  • Jon

    @Jeff….castle is a pretty strong performer. It would really have to fall off the cliff for it to be cancelled next year. Do you really think Abc is going to premier enough hits next fall to warrant castles demise?

  • Fred

    OUAT WONDERLAND is sometimes more entertaining than the original OUAT. Especially the last 2 new eps.
    SUPER FUN NIGHT has it’s moments. Most eps are quite good.

  • milo

    It would be nice if these articles had a little more data included. An average of the whole season isn’t that useful since a show that started out strong but continually dropped will have an average that seems better than the actual performance.

    Here’s what I’d add:
    rating of the last episode (whether that’s the raw rating or the indexed one)
    index of the last five or last three episodes, in addition to the index of the full season average. That would give a much better picture of how the show is doing and its chances of renewal.

  • Charmed

    @Jeff OUAT most definitely WON’T be ending next year, hopefully not Castle either.

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