ABC: 'The Neighbors' Is Certain To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 18th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.49
Betrayal :oops: 0.49
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.58
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.66
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.71
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.82
Nashville :| :| :| 0.83
Back In The Game de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes 0.93
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 0.96
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Super Fun Night :oops: 1.13
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.42
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.50
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.01

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While the Cancellation Bear's prediction for The Neighbors has been "certain to be canceled" since mid-October, other headlines kept elbowing that out of the way. Now, with no changes to the ABC predictions this week to otherwise claim the limelight, The Neighbors prediction finally gets its time in the headline.

“Why is Super Fun Night certain to be canceled, yet sitting beside a bunch of certain to be renewed shows?”

Super Fun Night's position in the list is determined by its ratings average, which has yet to “catch up” to its recent ratings declines.

However, its prediction is based primarily on the fact that it didn’t receive a full season order. There are very isolated instances of Fall premiere rookie shows without full season orders being renewed for a second season, but it’s not even remotely the way to bet.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • THE OLD MAN

    So many munchies for the bear to munch on here at ABC but I think Revenge should be a day-old moose calf for a real treat!

  • shogun

    So Bill, what does the cancellation bear have to say about Bubble watch downgrading SHIELD?

  • FallerWanderer

    @Charmed As long as The middle is safe and the neighbors is gone, my moms good.

  • Bored Now

    @shogun

    Hopefully the bear says “don’t be ridiculous!” ;)

  • FallerWanderer

    @THE OLD MAN
    if Revenge is a moose calf, then The Middle is a … ok, you say it, I’m no good with metaphors.

  • Fred

    Many shows drop in quality in their sophomore season:

    Revenge- last season
    OUAT – last season
    Nashville- this season

    Then when the shows finally improve in the 3rd season, its too late because viewers gave up hope.

    In my view, OUAT wasn’t that bad last season, just a bit off focus. Many eps were standouts though. This season, Neverland is a little dull and repetitive. Still love the show.

  • Matthew Chapman

    As ABC Release their midseason plans, Betrayal has been cancelled.

  • Matt M.

    Castle is ABC’s only drama and one of their two only shows that garners over 10 million viewers each week, which is pretty big for ABC. It also is a very strong performer for the network.

  • cfsv

    ABC…becoming NBC…
    CBS…becoming ABC…

  • SJ

    The Middle is higher on the Index than Once Upon a Time. Who would have predicted that two years ago?

    Anyway, Once really dropped in quality in season 2. So much so that I haven’t watched a single episode – or even so much as a promo – this season. They really messed up last year.

    I agree with all the predictions, though I’d put Revenge and Last Man Standing in the “Certain” column, but that’s just splitting hairs.

    As for which shows will be ending next year, definitely SHIELD, Revenge and Last Man Standing.

  • Bored Now

    @SJ

    Regarding S.H.I.E.L.D.? Really won’t! ;)

  • Brandy

    I hope Nashville gets renewed.

  • caster-percy-stydia

    I was just wondering, does every network needs to have a syndication show every year?

  • danielcw

    SHIELDS’s position in the list is also determined by its ratings average, which has yet to “catch up” to its steady ratings declines.

    I would really like the index to be recalculated.
    Take away SHIELDS “inflated” pilot.

    Or maybe only use the recent 5 episodes, or even the recent 5 weeks (just new episodes)

    @caster-percy-stydia
    the networks don’t care much about syndication,
    but the studios may be giving a show away for a lot less money to reach syndication.
    (some rumors even said, that Sony gave away the final season of ‘Til Death for nothing)

  • Bored Now

    @danielcw

    Won’t matter how S.H.I.E.L.D. is being calculated. It’s getting a second season no matter what and I suspect Bill has figured that out for himself, even without the benefit of my friends-in-Marvel-places. ;)

  • JacobYates

    @cfsv
    I think that it’s more like this:

    CBS…becoming ABC…
    ABC…becoming Fox…
    Fox…becoming NBC…
    NBC…becoming CW…
    CW…going out of business…

  • HeadlessHorseman

    I forgot that I’m not JacobYates anymore! :)

  • CBSviewer

    What ABC should do next season:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars
    10:00 – Castle

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – SHIELD
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA
    10:00 – Nashville

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – The Goldbergs
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – NEW DRAMA
    9:00 – Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 – Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Last Man Standing
    8:30 – NEW MULTICAM COMEDY
    9:00 – Shark Tank
    10:00 – 20/20

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA
    10:00 – Revenge

    Thoughts ?

  • Patrick G

    As much as I enjoy “Revenge,”, ABC’s announcement that it will be moving to the Sunday 10 PM death slot is very troubling. If it starts to sink further through the 1s, I don’t think even the syndication gods will save it for next year. ABC should move “Nashville” to Sundays at 10 and put “Revenge” back on Wednesdays at 10 where it started and performed its best.

    As for “Once Upon a Time,” as long as they end their dreadful Neverland storyline in 2 weeks as the promo seemed to suggest, I expect ratings to go slowly back up once the plot returns to Storybrooke and The Enchanted Forest. We can only hope!

  • James

    @JacobYates

    To be honest CW is the biggest and the only winner on Tuesday. It’s unlikely to get out of business so soon.

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