CW: 'The Tomorrow People' Is A "Toss Up" For Renewal Or Cancellation

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

November 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Beauty And The Beast :cry: :cry: 0.39
The Carrie Diaries (F) de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes 0.39
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.52
Reign :| :| :| 0.87
The Tomorrow People :| :| :| 0.92
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.29
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56

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The Tomorrow People ratings started strongly. Its premiere 0.9 adults 18-49 rating was above the CW's rating average for the week. Sadly for the show's prospects, its last 3 weeks' 0.6 ratings have dropped it into the relative ratings range that indicates the show could be either canceled or renewed by season end. So, the Cancellation Bear has adjusted his prediction for it to "toss up" between cancellation and renewal. The bear hopes, and somewhat expects, that come spring, and the premiere of two new CW dramas, the relative ratings positions of both Reign and The Tomorrow People will become a bit clearer.

Why is The Carrie Diaries defacto canceled?

Fall premiere shows that receive a 13 episode order (veteran or rookie), and no follow on episodes are canceled. (note, Life Unexpected). There will be no announcement, as always, except the fact that it's left off the schedule announced in May.

With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Haven

    Bill you make no sense

    TCD was always ordered as a 13 episode a season series, of course there is no more episodes to be ordered duh all 13 episodes have already been freaking ordered for this season.

  • breathesgelatin

    A question, Bill…

    So if Sleepy Hollow returns next year in the fall with only a 13-episode order, and doesn’t have additional episodes ordered, will it also be “de facto cancelled”?

    Or is your argument more about that the economics of a limited series (renewable several years over) is different for FOX or Carrie Diaries.

    (FWIW, I don’t dispute that Carrie will be cancelled, just unsure if it’s too early to say that now.)

  • Randy

    LOL at the crazies trying to defend The Carrie Diaries.

  • starship

    @Dude

    ANTM is a summer show, it won’t air until sometime next summer, ending either before or a few weeks after the start of the season (depending on whether they have a Friday show that could be doing better at the start of the season). I bet the 8pm hour on Friday will be saved for reality or Whose Line paired with Seed (if they decide to air those in season). One of the new shows can time-share with the TTP which could be aired without repeats and end early ( I say TTP because it’s the one that does the worst out of the 3 new shows, especially in the 18-34 demo). I just don’t see them banishing either of the first season shows to Fridays, nor do I see them making more than one moves (BATB) – it’d require too much money to promote new nights/times for multiple shows.

  • starship

    @ breathesgelatin

    The difference is TCD was not a limited series. They ordered 13 episodes instead of 22 this year because its ratings were horrendous last year and they didn’t want to be stuck with more (like they are with the 22 BATB episodes right now). The fact that Pedowitz himself said they might order more than 13 negates any claims that the show is a limited series. He was basically saying, if it miraculously pulls 0.5-0.6s on Friday, they’ll give it more episodes, if it doesn’t, well you do the math…

  • Ronald

    BUT as far as i know TCD has always been a 13 Episode series it was lasts eason so why this season should be diferent¿? But i get your point TCD wasnt announced as a Limited series so this is the results

  • Valerie

    @ Bill

    Oh, i forgot that it only got 13 episode order last year, thanx.

  • Charmed

    TCD was picked up for a second season with below average season 1 ratings, and MOVED TO FRIDAY of all days! Mark’s not stupid, he knew TCD wouldn’t magically grow in ratings, and IMO it’s doing just fine.

  • DM

    @Ronald
    Last season it premiered at midseason. There are not enough weeks in the season for midseason shows to have more than 13 episodes. All 13 of them were low rated so it was a surprise that it was even renewed in the first place. This season is different because it premiered in the Fall so if its ratings were somehow good, they would have plenty of time to order a full season. They weren’t so they didn’t.

    CW is basically just a syndication factory so they wouldn’t bother with limited series. Let’s say they did renew TCD for a 3rd season of 13 episodes. By the end of that season it would still only have 39 episodes so nowhere near what it needs for syndication. What would be the point? The ratings will only go down from there anyway. Even if they stabilized at a 0.3, that may be stable but it certainly isn’t good. That would hardly be a good replacement for a freshman failure. Especially this year since all the new shows are doing better than that.

  • milo

    “Shows that receive a 13 episode order (veteran or rookie), and no follow on episodes are canceled.”

    More specifically, that applies to fall shows. If a show starts airing the season in the spring, that doesn’t apply. But otherwise I totally agree.

    It’s pretty hilarious to see all those insisting that Carrie is doing great because 13 episodes was all that was intended. If people are that easily fooled, they should announce every show starting out with 13 episodes as a “limited series” since some people obviously use that to insist that shows aren’t cancelled. When they are.

  • Charmed

    For everyone saying TCD will be cancelled, why do you think it was renewed with bad live ratings and moved to Friday? They could easily have cancelled it, but they didn’t

  • Dan

    @Scandalicious – Thats my exact midseason prediction schedule. Lets hope CW follows suit.

    In my opinion The Tomorrow People is in better shape than Reign. The retention is the same basically but while Reign has higher expectations, it was conceived as a limited series so like all limited series this season, unless its a breakout hit, its not getting another season so by May its definitely dead.

    The Tomorrow People definitely has a chance as CW’s second renewed drama. If CW’s midseason dramas flop and they cancel BATB, The Carrie Diaries and Reign then CW could renew Tomorrow People if it ticks up and stays at a 0.7-0.9. (In addition to renewing TVD, Arrow, HOD, Supernatural, and The Originals)

  • Dan

    @Charmed – Well with The Carrie Diaries I think CW renewed it only because they ended 2 veterans and they wanted more original shows on the schedule. The Carrie Diaries and BATB were essentially doing the same for their respective nights, so rather than cancel both or cancel one, CW renewed both.

    The Carrie Diaries isn’t cancelled, Lie to Me wasn’t cancelled when its 13 episode order was capped in Fall 2010. TCD is still in consideration for the next season.

    It definitely will be cancelled but it isn’t yet.

  • Daniela

    Reign needs to be renewed because it has great potential and I’m hooked, I hope more people jump on board because it’s a great show. The visual are stunning and the music choices are interesting! The acting is also much better than what I tougght it’d be. I hope also they take the darker heavier direction and don’t make it all too many fast consuming romances and parties. I’m liking how they’re portraying the main charaacters though.

  • milo

    “Lie to Me wasn’t cancelled when its 13 episode order was capped in Fall 2010.”

    While there was no announcement, yes it was de facto cancelled.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    ““Shows that receive a 13 episode order (veteran or rookie), and no follow on episodes are canceled.”

    More specifically, that applies to fall shows. If a show starts airing the season in the spring, that doesn’t apply. But otherwise I totally agree.”

    Correct you are. Editing.

  • Melanie

    @Bill Not having the one lone little crying smiley by TCD is messing up the symmetry of the R/C table –its adding spaces and apparently confounding the faithful.
    Honestly, can’t you feel that ripping, gaping hole in the space time continum? What on earth were you thinking?

    Nevermind its current fate, I still don’t get why they renewed it last season. For spackle on Fridays? Why bother? 10 episodes of Nikita instead of 6, a few more of those iheart things and a couple weeks of ANTM clip shows and they’d have had the same ratings . . . .
    Similarly – on Mondays, BATB is getting the same ratings as reruns. I think having it as only Likely to be cancelled is being kind.
    I have a Secret Circle(cancelled w/okay ratings)feeling about the Tomorrow People – TTP isn’t even doing as well as TSC did, or as well as SPN did in the timeslot last season –and an HOD (renewed w/mediocre ratings) feeling about Reign. Reign is unique on the CW and TTP is another of the myriad of genre shows that, for the most part, are working very well on the network. Something else can do better. Something else could do better than Reign too, I suppose.

  • starship

    @ Dan

    It’s clear which show you prefer, but let’s be realistic. Retention doesn’t matter (although Reign is doing better even retention-wise since last week). It was never a limited series (if it was it wouldn’t be having 22 episodes), also it was never intended to be a one-and-done miniseries, if its ratings hold or keep improving, it’s getting renewed (especially since it’s 18-34 ratings are at least double what TTP is doing). TTP might get renewed as well, but if we are to use current data and the way one show is declining week to week, while the other is rising, Reign is certainly the one in the better position. The only thing TTP has over Reign is a UK broadcast deal, but I doubt that will play much into the renewal considerations. Anyway, it’s still mid-Fall, both shows might be doing so bad they get cancelled by March, so this is a bit pointless.

  • Charmed

    @Dan If that’s the case, why not give Nikita more episode / a full season? It would have got the same ratings, not to mention more episodes for syndication. But they didn’t, so obviously there’s a reason why they would renew such a low performer (live, at least)

  • Charmed

    @starship I’m puzzled why TTP has been picked up here in the UK, it doesn’t fit the profile of a ‘hit’ here. I’m also confused why Reign hasn’t been picked uk, it’s basically a British show with all of the accents, and obviously it’s to do with British history and stuff. Also wish TCD had been picked up, it seems to late now, we’re in need of a new Gossip Girl/90210 teen show. The UK are so out of touch with tv shows these days, Pretty Little Liars doesn’t have a UK broadcaster since season 2 either, and I know a lot of people who watch it and I’ve had to refer them to online streaming. I used to never do that sort of thing, but it’s either that or never be able to watch it.

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