NBC: Could The Cancellation Bear Devour The Entire NBC Thursday Line Up?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.70
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.75
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.75
The Michael J. Fox Show :cry: :cry: 0.81
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
Revolution :| :| :| 0.92
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.95
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Blacklist :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.94

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Welcome To The Family is already digesting in the Cancellation Bear's stomach, and the ratings of the remaining members of NBC's Thursday line up (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood, Sean Saves The World, and The Michael J Fox Show) are "look away" awful, even for NBC.

Could the cancellation bear devour the entire NBC Thursday line up?

While that would be a first for the bear (since his birth in 2008), he judges it unlikely to happen. While he may take down one of the two veterans (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood), at this point he doesn't think it's likely he can get both of them. With the mid-season and Spring premieres yet to come, it's possible that some upside surprises may change that prediction.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • B

    How do you still have Revolution on the bubble? Look at its relative ratings.

  • James

    Would be hilarious if Community comes back to just about bearable ratings and ends up the only NBC comedy renewed.

  • fred

    and why arent Grimm and SVU the same? They both got same rating of 1.6 last week.

  • AllOfHerTw!st

    #sixseasonsandamovie

  • MARTY

    bill thank you for yogi he is my favorite

  • TVDude

    I think both Parenthood and Revolution are both dependent on how midseason goes for NBC. Both shows are down this season, but they are also up from what was in their time slots a year ago. I doubt NBC will care too much about that, but the fact they’ve gained while other time slots have lost is an accomplishment, even if it’s a small one. I would give the edge to Parenthood as a (full) third season for Revolution would put pressure on for a fourth while Parenthood is already able to sell in syndication. I doubt Parenthood would be booming in syndication, however, so that may not be a factor, we’ll see, I suppose.

    At this point in time, I would not be shocked if NBC were to announce that Parks and Recreation will have its final episode in May. I do see them giving it an ending as despite the low weekly viewership, Parks and Recreation does have a following, much like 30 Rock did. So if it’s either this year or next year, I do think we will know what P&R’s last episode will be before it airs. It will be interesting to see how Community does upon its return, relative to Parks. I do not think either of the two new comedies will be back, which is sad, because I’ll admit to liking them.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    I would be fine if Parks ended this season, it’s had 6 great seasons and 2 of the cast members are leaving this year anyway. NBC needs to start over from scratch with comedy, and that might involve having new comedies on a new night.

  • Molly

    As long as Community is canceled, I don’t care what else NBC cans on Thursday.

  • Dan S

    I’m bummed that P&R could end this season. I understand its low numbers but can always hope it gets a boost from Community when that show returns. As for Dracula I’d downgrade it certain cancellation.

  • Networkman

    @Jeff, I agree. NBC has to go in a totally new direction when it comes to their comedies. Parks & Rec small fanbase isn’t doing NBC any favors at this moment. I also like having the new comedies on a different night.

  • omabin

    I agree with most of these but I would put The Michael J.Fox as certain cancellation. I think the initial airings are inflating this. It is now at 70% of NBC’s average. Also, I would stick with bubble for Dracula because of the Hannibal precedent, we really don’t know how big that cost advantage is.

  • AlanHalliwell

    If Parks and Recreation gets cancelled I’ll cry it such a good show can they not understand to move it

  • ludotv

    NBC could and should just delete the Thursday line up since on the comedy front they can’t beat CBS – perhaps move Community & Parks & Rec to another night. At this point it seems their existing viewership will follow them wherever they go but they can’t get new viewers to get on board

  • Tommy M.

    I think NBC’s only real shot at improving Thursdays is to start from scratch. Parenthood and Parks could still get spackle renewals but they don’t have to return in the fall. They still have a mess on Wednesdays as well, but I think their first priority should be rebuilding Thursdays.

  • John Ham

    I think NBC should just forget the Comedy format. Maybe 1 hour, and that’s it. All of their comedies have just turned into cancellations

  • Janus

    @ B–Bill’s ranking of Revolution is an oasis of SANITY compared to the bubble watch–LOL.

  • Scandalicious

    NBC needs to start their Thursdays from scratch again. Nothing is working and nothing is sticking. I would bet that Parks and Rec will survive another season and Parenthood will end. The competition is just so much more fierce on the drama front for NBC. I think Revolution may just end up coming back as well. It was up this week and if it can continue that upward swing it has a real shot!

    I am so glad the Blacklist is so strong. It is the best drama of the season!

  • TBM

    So what happens when The Voice fizzles out, which it will inevitably do considering they run it twice per year.

  • TJ

    IMO NBC should scrap everything on Thursday. Nothing they have right now is going to grow or anchor anything else in the future.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Those comedy ratings are no laughing matter & Parenthood has more than enough for syndication.

    MESSAGE TO BEAR: “Devour the whole lot, I say!”

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