NBC: Could The Cancellation Bear Devour The Entire NBC Thursday Line Up?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.70
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.75
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.75
The Michael J. Fox Show :cry: :cry: 0.81
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
Revolution :| :| :| 0.92
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.95
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Blacklist :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.94

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Welcome To The Family is already digesting in the Cancellation Bear's stomach, and the ratings of the remaining members of NBC's Thursday line up (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood, Sean Saves The World, and The Michael J Fox Show) are "look away" awful, even for NBC.

Could the cancellation bear devour the entire NBC Thursday line up?

While that would be a first for the bear (since his birth in 2008), he judges it unlikely to happen. While he may take down one of the two veterans (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood), at this point he doesn't think it's likely he can get both of them. With the mid-season and Spring premieres yet to come, it's possible that some upside surprises may change that prediction.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • GregP

    NBC will try their midseason comedies after the Voice on Tues night again this spring. I’d also like to see them try Sunday nights after football season. The only comedies there are FOX’s animated show which draws a different crowd.

    I’ve also noticed NBC is picking up a ton of pilots that involve women in the workplace so I’m guessing that’s their direction for next year. (See Ellie Kemper, Meg Ryan, Susan Sarandon, and Anne Heche’s new shows)

  • N

    Parks & Rec has the second richest audience on broadcast TV (in median income, to be specific), so its situation looks better than you’d think. One more season should be within reach.

  • brian

    Might I recommend starting Thursday nights with The Biggest Loser next fall? Based on ratings for the Voice, I think they can get some traction to start the night. It’s up to them whether they want to keep it at one hour and launch a drama/sitcoms at the 8 o’clock hour. Then, perhaps keep Parenthood at 9 PM. If 2 hours, then premiere a new drama at 9 PM right after. And Parenthood could take over for some failed drama elsewhere in the lineup.

    If Parks/Community returns, it should open a new night like Wednesday or Friday at 7 PM.

  • k:Alex

    Mid-season could be like this:
    Monday
    8:00 The Sing-Off / The Voice
    10:00 The Blacklist

    Tuesday
    8:00 The Sing-Off / The Voice
    9:00 About a Boy -P
    9:30 The Family Guide -P
    10:00 Chicago Fire

    Wednesday
    8:00 Revolution
    9:00 L&O: SVU
    10:00 Chicago PD -P

    Thursday
    8:00 Community
    8:30 Parks&Rec
    9:00 Believe -P
    10:00 Parenthood

    Friday
    8:00 Dateline/ Sean / MJ Fox burn-off (0.9 is by far too bad for Thursday)
    9:00 Grimm
    10:00 Crossbones -P

    Sunday:
    7:00 Dateline
    8:00 American Dream Builders -P
    9:00 The Night Shift -P
    10:00 Crisis -P

    \Undateble (didn’t have good reviews)
    \Food Fighters (summer show)

    ——
    About the comedy’s,
    NBC must have 2 new multicam adult comedy’s.
    No cheap CBS multicam with too bright lights and laugh tracks from I Love Lucy (those where even better as The Big Bang has).

    Find some old writers form Friends/Frasier etc and make 3/4/5 new characters.
    No special things as a freaky boss or a wannabe celebrity.
    Just good writing with ‘almost’ normal people.

  • Douglas from Brazil

    “Could The Cancellation Bear Devour The Entire NBC Thursday Line Up?”

    Yes.They could,they should, they must,they can,they shall…

  • Ted Craig

    Boy, the networks are really proving the old adage that comedy is hard. And this should be their strong suit – cable doesn’t really do comedy.

  • jimbo

    NBC brass has no idea what they’re doing….one hand is scraching their head while.the other is pointing at the other guy. Can’t wait until Leno leaves the tonight show and the ratings hit the bottom to see who they blame then….

  • Douglas from Brazil

    “Could The Cancellation Bear Devour The Entire NBC Thursday Line Up?”

    Correcting:
    Yes.He could, he should, he must,he can,he shall…

  • omabin

    @Janus,

    I 100% disregard bubble watch nowadays. He has no credibility whatsoever and just makes random guesses whenever he feels like it. I can guess as well, I don’t need to read other people’s guesses. If a show could go either way, it’s a bubble, period. I only care about the Renewal and Cancellation Index.

  • Why Watch

    None of the Thursday comedies are funny. P&R is the worst, I can’t understand how it has lasted this long.

  • starship

    I think Revolution needs to be getting some extra smilies soon, perhaps just one for now, but it’s certainly not a toss-up given the current state of NBC programming.

  • CBSviewer

    NBC Next season:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – The Voice
    9:00 – The Blacklist
    10:00 – Chicago Fire

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Revolution
    9:00 – Law & Order: SVU
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Biggest Loser
    9:00 – NEW COMEDY
    9:30 – Parks & Recreation / Community
    10:00 – Parenthood

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Dateline
    9:00 – Grimm
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    Thoughts ?

  • DryedMangoez

    It should devour NBC’s Thursday and allow them to start over.

  • milo

    Amazing that with this list, they are still the leading network so far this season. Football and Voice are basically subsidizing a schedule that is mostly otherwise bombs.

    Comedy just isn’t working for NBC on thursday nights any more. As painful as it would be for them, they need to try dramas there, or at least more of the night, and pick a different night to try and make their comedies find an audience. It doesn’t help that the new comedies are weak across the board, but even when they had good ones they didn’t have much better ratings on thursday nights for years now.

  • The 47th

    Well, if we go by the numbers, Parenthood is their highest rated show of the night lately, so that’s the one that should have more options to return. On top of that, its performance is still good: it grows from the previous program and it’s been more stable than the other shows.

    That said, it’s not going magically back to decent numbers, so I’d order a 13-episode sixth season, and use it as a replacement in the next year for any of the first new shows that fail.

  • nathan

    I SWEAR IF U EAT PARENTHOOD I WILL HUNT U DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Dave

    I’m surprised The Blacklist is doing so well. James Spader is phenomenal, of course, but the rest of the acting is putrid.

  • Monté

    NBC should have kept Parenthood on Tuesday, moving it to Thursdays didn’t do anyone any favors. They hit a high last season across the board and this season it’s only gotten better. It sucks that Parks & Rec was set up for failure by having to go head to head with TBBT. I hope both shows are renewed for another season. NBC really needs to revamp their comedies and move away from Thursdays.

  • Carthy

    Parks & Rec has essentially crossed the finish line; it’s already in syndication. So the only reason to renew it is if the network feels it is a genuine part of a building strategy. Since the ratings are so low this season, I doubt anyone would find that to be true.

  • Jami

    Why can’t Revolution get another smiley face. Let’s just consider the time slot NBC put in, and really SVU is inflated because of it’s 2 hour premier.
    This is not the 1990’s anymore NBC only has 2 scipted shows pulling over 2 The Black List and CF with the Voice lead in. Cable is taking viewers, more shows are being dvr. Renew REVOLUTION for a season 3 and 4. Keep 7.5 million viewers happy.

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