NBC: Could The Cancellation Bear Devour The Entire NBC Thursday Line Up?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.70
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.75
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.75
The Michael J. Fox Show :cry: :cry: 0.81
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
Revolution :| :| :| 0.92
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.95
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Blacklist :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.94

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Welcome To The Family is already digesting in the Cancellation Bear's stomach, and the ratings of the remaining members of NBC's Thursday line up (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood, Sean Saves The World, and The Michael J Fox Show) are "look away" awful, even for NBC.

Could the cancellation bear devour the entire NBC Thursday line up?

While that would be a first for the bear (since his birth in 2008), he judges it unlikely to happen. While he may take down one of the two veterans (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood), at this point he doesn't think it's likely he can get both of them. With the mid-season and Spring premieres yet to come, it's possible that some upside surprises may change that prediction.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • DZ

    Parenthood isn’t going anywhere.

  • Anthony

    NBC should have kept Parenthood on Tuesday, moving it to Thursdays didn’t do anyone any favors. They hit a high last season across the board and this season it’s only gotten better. It sucks that Parks & Rec was set up for failure by having to go head to head with TBBT. I hope both shows are renewed for another season. NBC really needs to revamp their comedies and move away from Thursdays.

    No they shouldn’t have kept Parenthood on Tuesdays. The show has always done decent, but not spectacular in the ratings and was nearing the end of its run regardless of whether it stayed on Tuesday or not (as an older show, with a large cast, it is pretty expensive to produce, and since it was going to be at syndication numbers after this season there isn’t as much incentive to keep producing it). Knowing that information, NBC was better served to move Parenthood and attempt to use the Voice to develop a new hit. They chose Chicago Fire because it showed it was a self starter last year, and has the potential to be a franchise (like Law & Order), it seemed to be a better choice than betting on a new show (which has a lot more risk involved). Given that they wanted to use SVU to try and launch an new procedural (since it worked last year), they really only had two options for Parenthood, Wednesdays at 8 or Thursdays at 10. They most likely figured that MJF would be performing better than it is, and also that as a veteran show, Parenthood would hold it’s audience better. Clearly most of these things didn’t work out (Ironside failed, so did the comedies, Parenthood also tanked, but Chicago Fire is at least doing okay), it doesn’t mean that it was a bad/faulty decision making process (hind sight is always 20/20).

  • a p garcia

    NBC should scrap every comedy(drama) on Thursday including the executive incharge of comedy programming as they don’t know @#$% about comedy. Maybe Jay Leno should be given this job if he doesn’t go to FOX.

  • Dan S

    Truthfully they should cutback to 1 hr of comedy & try an established show like Biggest loser or even (gasp) The Apprentice on Thur. I would try another hr of comedy on Wed. & forgo any attempts at a 2 hr block for now.

  • David

    People suggesting NBC will completely scrap their comedies next season or cut it to 1 hour are wrong. They’ve already ordered 2 comedies straight-to-series, compared to 0 dramas. They’ve already given an early pilot order to Bad Judge and have plenty of put pilot commitments with talent attached. The likelihood this leads to a mere 2 comedies next season, is ridiculous. Yes NBC’s comedies aren’t doing well, but they’re not going to give up, no matter how much we’d all like them to so they can stop the low ratings dragging down the network.

  • DaveV

    When it comes to a show like parenthood that is going to reach the 88 episode mark for stripped syndication this year, does that make it more or less likely to be renewed the following year?

    I would it think more likely to be renewed, but once a show reaches syndication in some ways there is less motivation to produce new episodes, since the first 88 are the most profitable.

    I am curious how this affects a show’s renewal chances

  • StevenD

    I like the idea of moving Believe to Thursday at 9. Taking it away from The Walking Dead is guaranteed to help the show. Thursday at 9 doesn’t have a lot of competition except Greys Anatomy, which isn’t really aiming for the same audience.

    My schedule options would be: (Monday-Wednesday are the same as they are currently planned to be scheduled)

    Sunday:
    7-8 Dateline
    8-9 American dream builders
    9-10 The Night Shift, or preferably get The Apprentice in production
    10-11 Crisis

    Thursday:
    8-9 Community/Parks
    9-10 Believe
    10-11 Parenthood

    8-9 MJF/SSTW
    9-10 Grimm
    10/11 Dateline

    OR

    Thursday:
    8-9 Parks and Community
    9-10 Crossbones
    10-11 Parenthood

    Friday:

    8-9 MJF/SSTW
    9-10 Grimm
    10-11 Dateline

    Crossbones is a cheap co-production, if advertised right it could simply become a high profit to NBC if they don’t wish to move Believe. This would leave a cheap dateline on Friday too.

    What do you think?

  • Eric McInnis

    @DaveV
    When it comes to a show like parenthood that is going to reach the 88 episode mark for stripped syndication this year, does that make it more or less likely to be renewed the following year?

    I would it think more likely to be renewed, but once a show reaches syndication in some ways there is less motivation to produce new episodes, since the first 88 are the most profitable.

    I am curious how this affects a show’s renewal chances

    Well Dave, it’s kind of inbetween from what I can gather. NBC could renew it for a full or short season and make it past 100 episodes which can appeal more to syndication, but the other issue is that the show is expensive to make due to it being a veteran and having a large cast. It’s hard to determine this early in the season, as Revolution is doing around the same numbers, and NBC’s midseason shows do have a lot of promise, so I think you should wait a while longer.

  • bk8718

    Didn’t the bear consume all ABC’s Tuesday lineup last year?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Didn’t the bear consume all ABC’s Tuesday lineup last year?”

    Since the bear doesn’t consider unscripted shows at all, he’s not counting the DWTS results hour as being consumed by him, but he did consume the only 2 hours of ABC scripted shows on the night.

  • The 47th

    @DaveV

    I’d say from this moment on it will be a matter of either keeping an old show with stable (but weak) numbers or that rookie show that is already a toss up on its first/second season.

    I guess they can always cut the cast or have some of the regulars being absent for part of the season…Lauren Graham is developing her new show on The CW, so I’d imagine she wouldn’t be available for a 22-episode sixth season. And she also wants Mae Whitman to take the lead role in it, so that’s two regulars that don’t have to be present for the whole year (also Graham must be one of the most expensive members of the panel).

  • ToXiX

    What NBC should do next season

    Sunday

    Lame football

    Monday

    8 The Voice
    10 New drama

    Tuesday

    8 The Voice
    9 New Comedy
    930 New Comedy
    10 New Drama

    Wednesday

    8 New Comedy
    830 New Comedy
    9 Chicago PD
    10 SVU

    Thursday

    8 Chicago Fire
    9 The Blacklist
    10 Revolution

    Friday

    Who cares

  • Eric

    In my opinion, NBC should cancel Sean Saves The World, and give shortened final seasons to P&R, Community and Parenthood, just as they did for 30 Rock. It would be a sign of good faith to the small but loyal fanbases that follow these series. Committing to only thirteen episodes for each series will allow them to bring in new series after these long-running NBC staples end their runs, keeping the fans reasonably satisfied and adding some syndication weight as well.

    And c’mon, we’ve made it this far. It would be a crime not to give Community that sixth season. And also a movie.

    As far as The Michael J. Fox Show goes, I actually really enjoy it, but won’t comment due to the fact that its chances at survival get worse with each passing day. Sigh.

  • Eva

    I read through the comments on here a lot and it makes me laugh because so many people have such good ideas for NBC and how the lineup should change on Thursdays. Why hasn’t NBC caught on yet? It’s been years now!

    I will admit that Parks and Rec is my favorite show on TV and I would be devastated if this was the last season. I will be devastates regardless of when it ends. I want Parks to stay and I know a lot of people love Community but having them go against shows like BBT and whatever else is on CBS in that time slot, is just silly to me. If NBC wants their comedies to last or get even a little bit higher in ratings, they need to move the nights around. It’s not friggin rocket science! They also need to fire the people that thought Sean Saves the World and the MJ Fox show were good enough to air. I tried to like both of the shows but I just don’t.

  • cfsv

    Please give parenthood a 6th and final season! I would die if this show is just cancelled!

  • cfsv

    Also Parenthood, Parks and Rec, and Community have all deserve a proper send off if NBC wants to keep the VERY little dignity they have…

  • cfsv

    Please excuse my grammatical errors…

  • milo

    @david
    “People suggesting NBC will completely scrap their comedies next season or cut it to 1 hour are wrong.”

    Has someone suggested that? NBC won’t scrap comedies, but they should move some or all of them to different nights. They probably won’t, but they should.

  • Justin

    My Idea:

    Community- Renew for 13 Episodes to get to 100+
    Parks & Rec- CANCEL
    Michael J Fox Show- Renew/Cancel
    Sean Saves the World- Rename and Save
    Parenthood- Renew for 13 Episodes to get to 100+

  • rgxx

    NBC move parenthood back to Tuesdays! NOW! And put Revolution on at a 10pm slot – (pm for central time.

    Revolution is on at 7pm in our area – it’s toooooo early to watch a show like that!

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