NBC: Could The Cancellation Bear Devour The Entire NBC Thursday Line Up?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.70
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.75
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.75
The Michael J. Fox Show :cry: :cry: 0.81
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
Revolution :| :| :| 0.92
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.95
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Blacklist :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.94

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Welcome To The Family is already digesting in the Cancellation Bear's stomach, and the ratings of the remaining members of NBC's Thursday line up (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood, Sean Saves The World, and The Michael J Fox Show) are "look away" awful, even for NBC.

Could the cancellation bear devour the entire NBC Thursday line up?

While that would be a first for the bear (since his birth in 2008), he judges it unlikely to happen. While he may take down one of the two veterans (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood), at this point he doesn't think it's likely he can get both of them. With the mid-season and Spring premieres yet to come, it's possible that some upside surprises may change that prediction.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • JSunkist

    I think in Yogi Bear’s case, it’s “Smarter Than the Average Cancellation Bear”

  • Parker

    I think that NBC will give final seasons to Community, Parenthood and Parks. SSTW, MJF and Dracula will be cancelled.
    Not sure about Revolution…

  • s0303

    @fred…grimm will be renewed for syndication reasons…plus a 1.6 is more impressive on a friday than it is on a wednesday :)

  • Theoacme

    @fred – plus it is based on the season average, which Yogi beats automatically…so SVU’s premiere was way high, remember, enough to make that much difference in the Index…

    …don’t worry – 0.95 on Friday is a lock, I gar-ON-TEE!

  • Dan

    Dracula will be one and done by May, Even Hannibal will end up like Smash or Touch. 2 and through.

    I’m gonna be generous and say NBC will give Parks & Parenthood short final seasons, because you know why not.

    Revolution and SVU are on similar levels, but how Rvolution does next spring is really an indication of its future so if numbers rise to even 1.5-2.0, thats a good sign.

    MJF and Sean Saves the World are in trouble, my guess was that Bill would have downgraded MJF Show to certain cancellation but possibly that headline is saved for next week.

  • Mark3

    Give parenthood and parks a FINALE EPISODE. to wrap things up. Been on the air to long to just cancel it. God NBC is so screwed. They have nothing. Hardley any veteren shows but a couple.

  • Chris J

    It’s funny that so many of you are suggesting NBC move there comedy bloc!

    But honestly where the heck would they move it to?

    CBS has Mondays with decent ratings (and The Voice already does well for NBC there)
    Fox and ABC are already clashing on Tuesdays with disappointing results for both Networks
    ABC owns Wednesdays (and NBC has failed on this night previously for years)
    CBS has one strong comedy on Thursday but the rest are already dipping below 2.0.

    NBC has just as much of an opportunity to build comedies on Thursday (9-10pm) as they have any other night

    The main problem for NBC is their current new comedies suck. They aren’t ben getting good DVR numbers anymore. That means, regardless of the time, no one wants to see them.

  • Chris J

    @SteveD

    I like your mock Spring schedule.

    NBC’s drama slate for this Spring is pretty strong, and there is no other way for NBC to schedule all of their shows without moving their weak 0.9 rated comedies off of Thursdays. I’ve really wanted to see Nightshift on the schedule and Sunday night may be a good night for it (that’s where Grey’s Anatomy started).

    NBC also has Maya Rudolph’s new Variety Show to schedule. I wonder if that will end up primetime somewhere?

  • Chris J

    @GregP

    I’ve been thinking the same recently.

    It would be pretty radical if NBC started a comedy bloc on Sundays. It would be the perfect counter programming to all of the dramas on Networks and Cable, as well as to Fox’s Animated bloc.

    Only problem I for see is none of the shows would be able to have 22 episode seasons, unless they bled over into the summer.

  • Kit

    If shows like Community were actually funny, issues like going against The Big Bang Theory would not be a problem, since the show would be strong enough to compete. Community hasn’t even premiered yet and already we’re seeing people foolishly put it on the schedule for next year. Community is dead weight that has only survived due to Sony whoring it out for a cheap price.

    I love Parks and Recreation, but NBC needs to dump everything and start all over, and they need to stop picking up shows that are just like the ratings duds they continuously air – single cam, niche humor shows that few people watch.

  • Chris J

    Since NBC only renewed 5 dramas last year, I’m assuming they will do the same this year.

    If Chicago PD does well, 1.7+ in the Spring, then Revolution and Parenthood are both done. NBC’s other midseason dramas could also have a small chance of becoming relative “hits” for NBC considering how much exposure the new shows are going to get during the Olympics…

    I’ve reiterated that I believe About A Boy will be a sure renewal for the network by the end of the season, also, pretty much by default.

    NBC has seemingly picked up a LOT of comedy and drama pilots, so my assumption is they will debut quite a few new shows next year.

    Anyway here is my mock 2014 schedule if only Blacklist, Chicago Fire, SVU, Chicago PD, Grimm are renewed as well as About A Boy and Parks/Community (for spackle..)

    Monday:
    The Voice
    NEW Broad Procedural Drama.

    Tuesday:
    The Voice Results
    NEW Shane Dawson Comedy (Shane Dawson probably appeals to the same women 12-34 audience the Voice does)
    About A Boy
    Chicago Fire

    Wednesday:
    NEW Legal Drama (or Nightshift/Believe if either are renewed)
    The Blacklist (hopefully it will maintain 2.5s and anchor the night)
    Chicago PD

    Thursday:
    The Biggest Loser/Space Race (post-Superbowl)
    NEW Tina Fey Comedy
    Parks and Recreation (final)/Community (final)
    Law and Order SVU

    Friday:
    Dateline
    Grimm
    NEW Babylon Fields (could be a good cult show pairing with Grimm)

  • StevenD

    @Chris J

    My only thing would be getting Parks/Community both in the fall. If Tooken is the new focus, why use it’s lead in on two shows most likely in their final seasons?

    I also think a Multi-cam block will be somewhere, as Dr. Ken sounds like a safe bet and is the closest NBC will get to a CBS comedy. If this were to happen, they’d probably put it on Wednesday at 8, and then the Tuesday at 9 could go to a medical drama or the new Murder She a Wrote, something in line with Chicago Fire (female skewing)

    (It’s really to early for any good predictions, until they pick up pilots in January)

  • charmedcraft

    What happened to NBC, they used to have so many good/funny hit shows. It seems like they pick up every pilot that is handed to them.

  • pete5125

    Their are at the moment 6-sitcoms on fox, 8 on CBS, 8 on ABC, and 4 on NBC, this without counting another 20 or more currently in production on the cable channels plus ones geared up for mid season….just to many sitcoms not enough writers.

    Also NBC let the success of the office brand them with..a certain image of single cams that really aren’t a success even in syndication…none have held up,

  • pete5125

    Also unless things changed, they basically forgo the pilot season and make most scripts they like go straight to series,

  • Kathy

    I just don’t understand why the show “Parenthood” can’t get better ratings. It’s a fantastic show with pretty awesome writing. :/

    Revolution on the other hand is probably more expensive and screams of desperation to get viewers.

    The new MJFox show is absolutely horrible with icky acting, overdone writing, and isn’t funny in any manner.

  • Chris J

    @StevenD

    Parks is stable and capable of decent ratings. That’s why left it on my mock fall schedule. If Tooken were DOA at least the night would have some stability.

    Multicams didn’t work for NBC before on Wednesday at 8. Drama seems like better counter programming and that’s somewhat evident in Revolution improving the hour and getting stable ratings.

    A multicam hour would be PERFECT Tuesday 9pm after the Voice though. I could see two really strong multicam shows
    getting CBS ratings (3s)! Also multicam would be good counter programming against ABC and Fox’s single cam comedies.

  • Kitsune

    Fall 2014-2015 Schedule of PERFECTION

    Monday
    8 – The Voice
    10 – New Drama or Believe

    Tuesday
    8 – The Voice
    9 – Parks and Recreation
    9:30 – New Comedy or The Family Guide
    10 – The Blacklist

    Wednesday
    8 – Community
    8:30 – New Comedy or About a Boy
    9 – Chicago Fire
    10 – Chicago PD

    Thursday
    8 – The Biggest Loser
    9 – Revolution
    10 – Law and Order SVU

    Friday
    8 – Dateline
    9 – Grimm
    10 – Crossbones if success

    Sunday at Midseason
    7 – The Apprentice
    9 – New Comedy
    9:30 – New Comedy
    10 – Parenthood or New Drama

  • wingsabre

    I think Parenthood will get renewed for one more season. It’s doing a lot better than what NBC got for that time slot last season, and that time slot has been a dead slot since ER left the air. Had they left the show on Tuesday, the ratings will likely be better. Ideally NBC would like critically acclaimed series with great ratings, however a critically acclaimed series with OK ratings is a lot better off than a critically acclaimed series with hemorrhaging ratings. I think that’s what killed Awake in the end of the day.

  • mando

    NBC has clearly scheduling problems like putting Revolution at 8:00 and Parenthood at dead slot.
    There is A CHANCE NBC can succeed at 9:00 on Thursday.
    Grey doesn’t do well like past years and CBS comedies haven’t caught people’s attention.
    It’s time to put some decent drama on that slot!! POI viewers just disappeared this year

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