NBC: Could The Cancellation Bear Devour The Entire NBC Thursday Line Up?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.70
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.75
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.75
The Michael J. Fox Show :cry: :cry: 0.81
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
Revolution :| :| :| 0.92
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.95
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Blacklist :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.94

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Welcome To The Family is already digesting in the Cancellation Bear's stomach, and the ratings of the remaining members of NBC's Thursday line up (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood, Sean Saves The World, and The Michael J Fox Show) are "look away" awful, even for NBC.

Could the cancellation bear devour the entire NBC Thursday line up?

While that would be a first for the bear (since his birth in 2008), he judges it unlikely to happen. While he may take down one of the two veterans (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood), at this point he doesn't think it's likely he can get both of them. With the mid-season and Spring premieres yet to come, it's possible that some upside surprises may change that prediction.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Rebecca

    Cancel all but Grimm, Parks and Community – they’re all I watch on NBC now. Well, I catch up on RVN sometimes but I could take or leave it.

  • Rebecca

    I agree with rgxx that RVN should air later than it does. It comes on early here, too (mtn time zone) – too violent for that time.

  • Chris_SAdvisor

    @Jami – Revolution gets 5m viewers not 7.5. If they had that many it would be around a 1.7 and have four smileys.

    @rgxx & Rebecca – A move means lower ratings for a week or two (and possibly much longer). At the current 1.5 @ 5m viewers, if it loses any more it *will* be cancelled.

    Revolution had one foot in renewal and one into the bubble. How things go to the pre-season break will determine if it is coming back. Considering it took 8 episodes before we finally got to see the new head writer (O’Bannon) in action, and his episode was weaker than the previous three, I doubt the ratings will be better this week. Especially when his contribution was a massive plot hole – Miles has blood poisoning in the injured hand, meaning the previous plot holes where Miles was using the hand to vault a 12 ft fence (twice in one episode), and punch people in the face (in the next episode), just got underlined a few times. Of course, since Rockne also did not bother to make Miles delirious with fever, it is just adds a few more lines to this particular continuity error. Perhaps they want one so large & bad that it makes the rest look acceptable by comparison?

    Tonight’s episode promises answers. Well we did not get them as promised at the end of season one, since they were invalidated at the start of season two. If they fail to deliver, or worse, cancel them back out in a few episodes, Revolution will take a massive hit. Perhaps all the quality was being saved for the last three episodes before the break?

  • Jami

    Chris_SAdvisor
    I was counting Live +7 2.3/2.4.
    Fringe Fans did it for years it got renewed.

  • Jami

    @Chris_SAdvisor
    I feel bad for you. You watch a show you despise. with all the plot holes. Hate every week on REVOLUTION. When I don’t like a show. I just don’t watch it, like Dracula the premier was awful. Almost Human awful premier. I do not waste my time on show’s or hate on show’s I don’t watch!

  • Chris_SAdvisor

    @Jami – Irrelevant to quote L +7 regardless of who has done it in the past. L +7 meant nothing to Fringe getting a 5 year span. It had more to do with Fox and it’s relative weakness.

    Oh, I do not despise the show itself. I despise the lack of attention that the E.P. are giving to the show. If I know the show is a train wreck immediately (Almost Human – after seeing the second epsiode as well, or Dracula – just from the premier trailer and limited series) then I will stop watching. But with Revolution I was promised a lot in pre-season one (Kripke promised a realistic SciFi show that had been vetted and signed off on by a scientific advisor), with a doubling-down of the promises of improvement during the hiatus. That was all a lie. So Kripke promised even more during the Summer of 2013, claiming that O’Bannon and his SPN co-creator would be make sure the show improved. With double the plot holes per epsiode, and a fairly boring/static, plot compared to season one, that all appears to have been a lie too. The only thing that did improve is the directing, which is evident in the performances of the actors/actresses.

    So now, I am watching to see how bad it really gets. Tonight will be a good litmus test. They promise to answer “why the power is out”. Since we already know it is due to the nanites, to keep this promise, they would have to explain the reason behind the nanites being tasked to carry this out. I really expect that they will either lie again, and deliver no answers tonight, or more likely, try to live up to the promise, and fail miserably in their answer. I am hoping they pull their heads out, and actually fix this show, but am strapped in and ready for the crash none-the-less.

  • Steve

    Just renew Community and Parks And Recreation. The rest of NBC’s Thursda line-up is rubbish.

  • Jeff

    my gut tells me Parks & rec will be renewed because nbc already picked up the greg pohler new sitcom welcome to sweeden which has a series commitment already. From a strategical sense my gut thinks that nbc will capitalize on a pohler hr next yr to launch the new show and give p&r a proper send off. from a marketing perspective that would be a smart move.

  • Chris_SAdvisor

    @Jami – There you go. Just as predicted since before season two even started. I will not spoil it here. The show *should* be dead, but enough fans that are willing to ignore anything can could save the show. I just doubt there will be 5m+ of them.

  • TJ

    Really Grimm is certain to be renewed?? Ahhh, come on, Revolution is so much cooler.

  • NJ Viewer

    If NBC picked up some of the shows CBS cancelled, their ratings would still be better than most of what it already has.

  • RJC

    At this point, I don’t think NBC has that much to lose from cancelling every single one of its comedies and starting again. I love Parks dearly, but come on. It’s in its sixth season and barely squeaking over 1.0 every week. I doubt a new show would be doing all that much worse, and it might do better if it’s good. MJF and SSTW are already below 1.0, they’re clearly finished. Maybe if Community can somehow average 1.5 or higher it could be worth keeping, but otherwise might as well throw it away too. If they put some energy into developing good comedies, maybe cut back their comedy hours or move them away from Thursday, they might be able to make something work.

  • KJ Styles

    NBC = Notorious Bear Chow

  • Chicago_animal

    Parks is still funny and much better then what BBT is putting out.

  • KJ Styles

    “Parks is still funny and much better then what BBT is putting out.”

    Hell Naw, BBT is a far better show than Parks.

  • clam man

    parks and rec is a phenomenal show

  • NBC

    While I vastly prefer Parks & Recreation to Big Bang Theory, let’s not start an argument over opinions. One side thinks Parks is better, one side thinks Big Bang Theory is better. Opinions are opinions, let’s just leave it at that.

  • Whitney

    Why do they always cancel the best shows? Is it bc the majority of viewers just have bad taste? So annoying!! Parenthood, Parks & Rec and Community = the best shows on tv. Period. I hope community comes back and that P&R and Parenthood stay on for another season!!!

  • DJ

    I would be shocked if NBC cancelled Parks and Rec this season, which is already half completed, and given how they’ve treated the show in the past/its small but dedicated following.

    Much more likely is an early announcement that season 7 will be the end. Possibly a short season like 30 Rock had. Depends on what else they have lined up at that point.

    As a fan of the show, I would welcome the news. It’s still great, but ready to be wrapped up before it goes downhill.

  • Mumbo

    I think Parks and Rec will get a short final seventh season. It’s a critical darling, it’s got syndication value, and they probably don’t want to piss off Amy Poehler. They’ll want to give that show a proper farewell, like they did 30 Rock.

    Besides that, though, I’m pretty sure the whole Thursday night is going to be bear chow. Including Community, I think it’s finally the end of the road for that show, what with multiple cast members gone and all.

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