NBC: Could The Cancellation Bear Devour The Entire NBC Thursday Line Up?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

November 19th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 17, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.70
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.75
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.75
The Michael J. Fox Show :cry: :cry: 0.81
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
Revolution :| :| :| 0.92
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.95
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Blacklist :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.94

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Welcome To The Family is already digesting in the Cancellation Bear's stomach, and the ratings of the remaining members of NBC's Thursday line up (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood, Sean Saves The World, and The Michael J Fox Show) are "look away" awful, even for NBC.

Could the cancellation bear devour the entire NBC Thursday line up?

While that would be a first for the bear (since his birth in 2008), he judges it unlikely to happen. While he may take down one of the two veterans (Parks & Recreation, Parenthood), at this point he doesn't think it's likely he can get both of them. With the mid-season and Spring premieres yet to come, it's possible that some upside surprises may change that prediction.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • James

    NBC can’t afford to keep critical darlings like P&R on the schedule anymore.

  • Samunto

    After last night’s ratings, there’s no doubt the bear will devour the entire 8-10pm offering. Parenthood will probably survive this. I doubt even this line-up will last midseason.

  • Chris J

    @Samunto

    Agreed.

    After last nights ratings everything needs to be cancelled after this season and Thursdays need a complete overhaul.

    As you said only parenthood should make it to midseason with everything else moved to burn off.

  • Dan14

    “NBC can’t afford to keep critical darlings like P&R on the schedule anymore.”

    ——————————————————————-

    Sad, but true.

  • mando

    Parks and Rec is funny stuff, but it needs a shorten final season next fall on Friday with Community. NBC shouldn’t keep putting Comedies on Thursday. Just Put The biggest Loser and The Blacklist and Revolution on that night.
    Parenthood would do well on Wed at 10:00.

  • StevenD

    NBC would never hear the end of it if they didn’t give Community it’s “six seasons”.

    I think Parks and Community will get 13 episode final seasons together, but they could likely be unscheduled Midseason replacements… Or air Thursday in the fall with the Super Bowl rebooting Thursday Midseason

  • Chris J

    For some reason my comment didn’t post.

    Anyway I think NBC needs to try something drastic for midseasom after the Olympics.

    Swap out their new Sunday lineup with their failing Thursday lineup and see if the new Olympic boosted dramas and American Dream Home reality competition can improve ratings on the night.

    There’s very little comedy competition on Sunday especially family comedies so maybe NBC’s family shows will do better there?
    Regardless NBC has to take some chances midseason with their schedule.

  • CBSviewer

    @ DJ

    Much more likely is an early announcement that season 7 will be the end. Possibly a short season like 30 Rock had.

    Two different Shows, two different situations.
    30 Rock ended because its ratings were low but they were good enough to order a Final Season while Parks has too low ratings to be Renewed.

    30 Rock Season 6 ratings (Ep 1-8): 1.8, 1.6, 1.6, 1.3, 1.6, 1.5, 1.5, 1.4
    Parks & Recreation Season 6 ratings (so far): 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 1.3, 1.1 (two episodes), 1.0 (two episodes).

  • David Howell

    @ CBSViewer

    But the difference is that 30 Rock wasn’t the top sitcom on the network. Astoundingly, Parks & Rec currently is (MJF is kept above it in the R/C Index by its 2.1 premiere).

    Of course, with most of the dramas putting up at least CW-beating numbers, P&R doesn’t look so great on the entire network totem pole. But it’s still viable as spackle. And a pairing with Community in an hour that would otherwise go to Dateline or a doomed newbie is still an upgrade. Well, over a doomed newbie anyway. I’d probably take the extra hour of Dateline…

  • Chris J

    NBC midseason mock schedule:

    Sunday:
    Community
    Parks and Recreation
    Sean Saves The World/Undateables
    Michael J Fox
    Parenthood

    Monday – Wednesday, and Friday remain as scheduled.

    Thursday:
    American Dream Builder
    Believe
    Crisis

    Essentially at midseason after the Winter Olympics NBC can swap out their Thursday night failures and try their new Olympic boosted dramas on the night. Anything is an improvement from the 1.0 average NBC is getting on Thursdays now.

    Likewise there is less comedy competition on Sunday, and I think that the comedies and Parenthood have a chance of growing their ratings and at least matching The Celebrity Apprentice’s performance on Sunday last year (1.6 rating average).

  • CBSviewer

    But the difference is that 30 Rock wasn’t the top sitcom on the network.

    The fact that Parks & Recreation is NBC’s #1 Sitcom is irrelevant. If P&R is below the network average it will be cancelled.

    But it’s still viable as spackle.

    NBC also has Community. If it gets a 1.2-1.3 it will be Renewed instead of Parks.

  • Rebooted

    Scandal would CRUSH Crisis. I would leave Parenthood and Crisis where they are scheduled.

  • Hobbitual

    @CBSviewer

    If Parks ends up performing similarly to last season at its new timeslot, I can see that getting renewed over Community if Community pulls 1.2-1.3.

  • Billy Martins

    I Don”t care about anything else on NBC”s Thursday line up but do indeed get rid of all it”s sitcom and keep Parenthood for at least two more years.Please Move parenthood next year to Tuesday at 10:00pm & have chicago fire back on Wednesday at 10:00pm with their coming spin off shift to Mondays at 10:00pm & The Blacklist to Thursday at 10:00pm &get rid also longest running Law &Order SVU,celebrity apprentice.

  • Chris J

    @Rebooted

    Scandal would crush anything NBC put in that timeslot!

    But I do think Believe would do better on Thursday so that it’s not going up against The Walking Dead.

    @Billy Martins

    If the actors are up to it, Law and Order SVU has a few more years in it. I’m not sure if it’ll make it to 20 seasons like the original though.

  • Josh

    IDK about the rest of u guys, but I am enraged that nbc butchered chuck, I simply feel the need to point out that it’s relative ratings averages on a Friday were still better than 90% of NBCs current lineup!! FYI I like community too but chuck was amazing!! There’s a lot of chuck and community fans out there and I wonder what you guys think about chuck compared to what’s on now bc t think it should be resurrected!

  • Anthony

    IDK about the rest of u guys, but I am enraged that nbc butchered chuck, I simply feel the need to point out that it’s relative ratings averages on a Friday were still better than 90% of NBCs current lineup!! FYI I like community too but chuck was amazing!! There’s a lot of chuck and community fans out there and I wonder what you guys think about chuck compared to what’s on now bc t think it should be resurrected!

    I can see how it would be easy to be enraged by completely made up and incorrect information. In Chuck’s final season, it’s HIGHEST rating was a 1.2 (which was for the series finale). Many of it’s airings were under a 1.0. That would put the show behind pretty much every show currently airing on the network, slightly ahead of SSTW and MJF.

  • Josh

    @Anthoy
    Thanks for that info I think my point was that NBC kills (scripted)shows with potential! They’re idiots with scheduling and promotion! Community and chuck both brilliant shows put up against veteran shows on multiple networks/timeslots! Community:slaughtered by BIG BANG and/or 2&1/2 men! Chuck killed by WGA strike, horrible summer promotion, DWTS and House! How come people who watch shows understand how to schedule new ones and 3/the big 4 networks don’t!? It’s a shame really…

  • Karen

    I happy to see that Law & Order:SVU, Chicago Fire and The Blacklist are most likely coming back… I truly hope Revolution joins them!

  • N komro

    I love “Revolution” please do not cancel!

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