Bubble Watch: 'Almost Human' On The Bubble + A Look At The ABC and Fox Mid-Season Schedules

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

November 24th, 2013

Almost Human

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2014-15).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Bubble Watch: Reading the Scheduling Tea Leaves

The midseason schedules continue to trickle out - CBS effectively already released theirs when they moved up the start date of Intelligence, their only moving piece – and as usual they offer hints as to various shows’ fates. Whether we can read those hints correctly is another story.

ABC

In general, ABC simply threw new shows into existing holes, and at this point, I don’t expect any of these new midseason shows to survive into next season. (This leaves Paul Lee’s legacy for the season as merely the underwhelming Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. and (possibly) The Goldbergs  - more on that next week.)

For the most part, the new schedule confirmed the obvious – Wonderland being put on hiatus before it airs all its episodes, Back In The Game being replaced by Suburgatory, and Super Fun Night indeed just filling airtime until Mixology takes the slot.

The one actual move was Revenge already being demoted to the 10pm hour. However, Revenge is not a Nikita-level disaster, and I expect syndication to win out – whether ABC holds Revenge to January, keeps it at 10pm, or airs multiple episodes opposite the Super Bowl (or all three!) next season – I still expect Revenge to get a final 22 episode order.

Fox

Fox really only made one move – replacing the early hour of the Tuesday comedies with Glee. The schedule shuffling they have going on to make that happen seems excessive though - every Tuesday in February has a different schedule! When looked at closer, though, the usual historical pattern of comparing struggling shows appears:

Dads, on February 11th, gets the double airing. This allows Fox to verify that it is not the 8pm timeslot that is to blame. (It’s not the timeslot.)

Brooklyn Nine-Nine takes over the 9:30pm slot starting in February sweeps. While part of the move is obvious – B99 has the best chance of holding up opposite The Winter Olympics - the move allows Fox to compare how the show does vs. 8:30, how the show does vs. The Mindy Project in the timeslot, and how compatible Brooklyn Nine-Nine and New Girl are in the long run. While Brooklyn Nine-Nine is clearly in the lead of the three struggling Fox comedies, I wouldn’t rush to conclusions until Fox has seen how those comparisons shake out in February.

American Idol gets a night to itself, allowing Fox to compare how scripted vs. reality does on the night.

Note: While Fox has cut comedy down to one hour in Spring, I don’t expect it to stay that way next year – Fox already order a Tina Fey-produced comedy to series, still has Mulaney (whichever year it actually airs), and has a number of other likely survivors in development.

What day they air depends on how many hours (if any!) X-Factor airs next year, which itself depends on how American Idol holds up this year: if AI is stable, then X-Factor might just lose an hour or two (probably replaced by Hell’s Kitchen and the like), but if both singing competitions collapse, Fox will have room for all the above options, and then some.

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This week’s premieres:

Almost Human started off well on Sunday; on Monday it fell to numbers a bit better than what Bones was doing in that timeslot. Unfortunately for Fox, this toss-up territory is the worst outcome for them – with the late start date (and Gang Related waiting in the wings), they need to decide on what backorder (if any) soon. I have it “On The Bubble” until we see more data or find out which way Fox is leaning on the backorder.

Nikita returned in-line with its Spring numbers. I can only assume this partial final order was done for contractual reasons, as the numbers going into the Holidays should continue to be terrible.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

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Show Network Status
Back In The Game ABC Canceled
Lucky 7 ABC Canceled
How I Met Your Mother CBS Final Season
We Are Men CBS Canceled
Nikita CW Final Season
American Dad Fox Moving to TBS
Ironside NBC Canceled
Welcome To The Family NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Betrayal ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Goldbergs ABC Cancellation Predicted
Nashville ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Neighbors ABC Cancellation Predicted
Once Upon A Time in Wonderland ABC Cancellation Predicted
Super Fun Night ABC Cancellation Predicted
Trophy Wife ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Good Wife CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hostages CBS Cancellation Predicted
The Mentalist CBS Cancellation Predicted
Mom CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty & The Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
The Carrie Diaries CW Cancellation Predicted
Brooklyn Nine-Nine Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dads Fox Cancellation Predicted
The Mindy Project Fox Cancellation Predicted
Raising Hope Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dracula NBC Cancellation Predicted
The Michael J. Fox Show NBC Cancellation Predicted
Parenthood NBC Cancellation Predicted
Revolution NBC Cancellation Predicted
Sean Saves The World NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ABC On The Bubble
The Crazy Ones CBS On The Bubble
Two and a Half Men CBS On The Bubble
Reign CW On The Bubble
The Tomorrow People CW On The Bubble
Almost Human Fox On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
The Middle ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewal Predicted
Blue Bloods CBS Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
CSI CBS Renewal Predicted
Elementary CBS Renewal Predicted
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewal Predicted
Mike & Molly CBS Renewal Predicted
The Millers CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS: LA CBS Renewal Predicted
Person Of Interest CBS Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewal Predicted
Arrow CW Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
The Originals CW Renewal Predicted
Supernatural CW Renewal Predicted
The Vampire Diaries CW Renewal Predicted
Bones Fox Renewal Predicted
Family Guy Fox Renewal Predicted
The New Girl Fox Renewal Predicted
The Blacklist NBC Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Sleepy Hollow Fox Renewed

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  • Dan

    I agree with the bubble consensus.

    For ABC they are basically just filling holes although I would personally let Back in the Game air its last 3 episodes Jan 8, 15, and 22 and return Suburgatory February 5. That would seem better so the series would have less repeats. OUAT Wonderland will either return back to its slot Thursdays at 8 or I wouldn’t be surprised if it was burned off on Fridays once LMS and The Neighbors finish up, there is only 5 episodes left. Revenge moving to 10 pm is smart beacuse it gives Resurrection a chance rather than throwing it under the bus at 10.

    CBS is basically replacing Hostages with Intelligence and my guess is that The Millers will be replaced with Friends With Better Lives and The Crazy Ones with Bad Teacher.

    FOX is making a very god move by giving Glee a slot, moving it to Tuesdays and finishing Dads early (It will probably return 7:30 on Sundays) This also gives both Brooklyn 9-9 and The Mindy Project a better chance by timesharing the post New Girl shot. The two hour block wasn’t going to last the season so its good FOX is fixing it now.

    NBC is just replacing Ironside with Chicago PD and WTTF with Community but I’m really anxious to see where the two midseason comedies will end up and what will happen to the Thursday block. Also will The Blacklist and Revolution split seasons? Maybe 3 episodes in January and then they return March after the Olympics?

    Overall this season may be pretty subpar, like last season with few hit shows emerging if not any, but currently the networks are making the best of their various troubling situations.

  • Scs790

    I totally disagree.. I consider myself a tv buff. And I don’t agree with Nashville,agents of shield,almost human, and several other predictions. I love these shows.. The nbc show line up sucks.. The only show they having going for them is blacklist.. Chicago fire,Svu r starting to bore me. I love the soapiness of Nashville. I love the futuristic of almost human. Shield is catchy.. (Noticed how Thor was put into storyline) In the past, I waited at least till show had a second season before watching it. Networks are to quick to cancel before catches on. I just started watching revenge,scandal, and bones. (Networks need to be thankful for netflixs) I hate jumping in on a show. Most of the time I agree with cancellation bear… But not this time… I soooooo hope he is way off.. :(!!! Fingers crossed..

  • Jami

    I refuse to believe NBC will cancel REVOLUTION if it maintains a 1.4/1.5 for the rest of the season.
    However putting Almost InHuman on the bubble is ridiculous. This is probably the worst sci-fi show ever. It will get killed in the ratings tonight, because it sucks worse tha Dracula.

  • Scs790

    I totally disagree.. I consider myself a tv buff. And I don’t agree with Nashville,agents of shield,almost human, and several other predictions. I love these shows.. The nbc show line up sucks.. The only show they having going for them is blacklist.. Chicago fire,Svu r starting to bore me. I love the soapiness of Nashville. I love the futuristic of almost human. Shield is catchy.. (Noticed how Thor was put into storyline) In the past, I waited at least till show had a second season before watching it. Networks are to quick to cancel before catches on. I just started watching revenge,scandal, and bones. And the reason I began watching them because i can watch past seasons on netflixs. (Networks need to be thankful for netflixs) if I hadn’t had been able to see previous seasons I wouldn’t have been interested. And that is a double edge sword for some shows. Because a lot of ppl, don’t have Netflix or time to watch prior episodes. I also love netflix’s own shows and if netflixs keeps it up. They r going blow the networks shows out of the water.(hint Emmy nominations) Most of the time I agree with cancellation bear… But not this time… I soooooo hope he is way off.. :(!!! Fingers crossed..

  • Jami

    Nashville will not be cancelled, I can’t stand Connie Britton, some people love her, abc has nothing to replace that show with.
    More people watch REVOLUTION and Nashville than what the Nielson ratings samples reports. People are watching Netflix and as I reacall both shows are available on Netflix.
    NBC has a major problem, no one is watching Thursday nights, So this renewal index is predicting REVOLUTION to be cancelled and Parks and Recs renewed, this is just unbeliavable. Well it looks like some people are watching NBC on Wednesday nights, so cancel a show that has an audience and launch another set a failures, and thats how they rebuild. No wonder why CBS is the most watched network, CBS 15 years ago had the same problem NBC is in now, they kept some low rated shows and launched CSI,all the others JAG/ NCIS shall I go on. NBC cancelled Harry’s Law after 2 season’s as I recall they had lot ratings but a helk of a lot of viewers, just not smart NBC.

  • MNP

    Nikita was a disaster? Good to know.

    Anything that degrades the rough germ of the Peta Wilson series deserves to be labeled as such.

  • ToXiX

    Am I the only one who cringes when they see the term “waiting in the wings”?

  • MARTY

    jami jag was an nbc show cbs grabbed it when nbc canceled it

  • milo

    I don’t think Nashville is on netflix, if it is it must be a recent addition.

  • Theoacme

    To all those who are posting like scs70, and says something like, “I love these shows, anyone who cancels these shows should be taken out and fed to rabid rattlesnakes!” – what you, or I, or Ultima, or Bill, or Robert, or Tom think of a show, just does not matter.

    Unless there are noticeable special circumstances (such as the Syndication Boar, or the Budget Badger), it is all the adult 18 to 49 ratings, the adult 18-49 ratings, and the adult 18-49 ratings*, and nothing but the adult 18-49 ratings.

    * – Some broadcast shows may have secondary ratings attention paid to subsets of A 18-49, such as A 18-34, or possibly A 25-54 – but they never ignore the A 18-49 ratings for any show.

  • Kristen Dyrr

    Just because some of you hate sci-fi doesn’t mean that we sci-fi lovers of Almost Human should lose one of the few shows we can actually enjoy. To me, Almost Human is gold, and most other shows on TV are crap. The only other fall shows I like are POI, Elementary, and Grimm. Revolution is, to me, getting better now that it has more sci-fi elements. That is the opposite of what’s popular, I know, but sci-fi freaks need entertainment too! I just wish there were more of us. :)

  • Anthony

    Just because some of you hate sci-fi doesn’t mean that we sci-fi lovers of Almost Human should lose one of the few shows we can actually enjoy. To me, Almost Human is gold, and most other shows on TV are crap. The only other fall shows I like are POI, Elementary, and Grimm. Revolution is, to me, getting better now that it has more sci-fi elements. That is the opposite of what’s popular, I know, but sci-fi freaks need entertainment too! I just wish there were more of us.

    It has nothing to do with hating sci-fi (this is coming from someone who also loves sci-fi TV, and watches Almost Human). This is a television ratings website, not a fan site. As such, the primary discussion should be about ratings (and by extension, the likelihood that a show is renewed for the following season). While it is true that if Almost Human stops it’s ratings free fall where it is right now, it will be renewed, the fact is that it hasn’t stopped falling, and thus could be very much in danger. I am not saying that everyone who comments on this site follows the same logic, many discuss the varying qualities of shows and get in petty nonsensical arguments, but that doesn’t mean that you should fall into the same trap. :)

  • David E

    Of course, of the 3 shows I watch on tv, two of will likely be cancelled. These are Alice and the Goldbergs. Both are good shows, Alice has a great storyline and the shows are well written. Being a fantasy with minimum violence, no bad language, and no sexual situations it won’t pass the mustard of todays garbage shows like Modern Family or Glee. The other show likely to be cancelled is The Goldbergs. A show about a family in the 80’s, it’s funny and touching at the same time. What makes it unique is that at the end of each episode they show a real video from the man who created this show. The episodes are based on real stories that happened when Adam Goldberg was a child. It has a little crude humor, but it has no sexual situations which doesn’t go over on today’s viewers. I hope these shows come back if they’re cancelled.
    The only other show I watch is The Middle, which has a little profanity and no sexual situations. Its quirkiness is what keeps it on the air. It looks like it will stay on the air for next year. I am overall sad about the quality of shows on tv. Just cop shows, numb braining situation comedies and bad reality shows.There just isn’t anything good on tv anymore.

  • jpolito99

    Revenge is and always will be the bomb it certainly doesn’t deserve all the trash that’s getting thrown at it… I find it silly how people complain that it’s a soap? Get over it? It’s still the same and I’m glad there’s going to be a 4th Season ABC owes Revene that wow Revenge is amazing it’s my No.1 show for me and always will be so yeah I’m so happy and I don’t care what people say about it.. It’s great and tbh Revengers don’t care what others think about it… U don’t like it? Don’t watch it. But yeah Revenge is the best they defo have to keep that one and hopefully the end game will be SPECTACULAR TILL THE VERY END?????????????

  • LS

    A friend bumped into one of the main actors from Almost Human. He’s making plans to move back to the US since the show is canceled according to him.

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