ABC: Why Is ‘Revenge’ Likely To Be Renewed When ‘Nashville’ Is Just A “Toss Up”?
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Neighbors (F)||😳||0.49|
|Once Upon A Time In Wonderland||😳||0.56|
|Last Man Standing (F)||0.66|
|Back in the Game||de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes||0.91|
|Super Fun Night||😳||1.10|
|Once Upon A Time||1.14|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||1.45|
The nine week Fall ratings averages for Revenge and Nashville are virtually identical, as well as the ratings for their last 2 weeks. Then why does the cancellation bear judge Revenge is likely to be renewed and Nashville is just a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation?
It’s a matter of proximity to the 88 episodes that currently seems to be the minimum level for extra profitable stripped syndication. Syndication is possible with any number of episodes, but fewer than 88-100 means much less revenue per episode.
At the end of this season Revenge will require only one more full season to reach 88 episodes, making it likely that ABC will endure almost any ratings level to get that fourth season. Nashville will require two more seasons. That extra hurdle could separate the two shows’ fates.
“Why is Super Fun Night certain to be canceled, yet sitting beside a bunch of certain to be renewed shows?”
Super Fun Night’s position in the list is determined by its ratings average, which has yet to “catch up” to its recent ratings declines.
However, its prediction is based primarily on the fact that it didn’t receive a full season order. There are very isolated instances of Fall premiere rookie shows without full season orders being renewed for a second season, but it’s not even remotely the way to bet.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.