ABC: Why Is 'Revenge' Likely To Be Renewed When 'Nashville' Is Just A "Toss Up"?

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 3rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


smile_bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.49
Betrayal :oops: 0.49
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops: 0.56
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 0.66
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.71
Revenge :) :) :) :) 0.82
Nashville :| :| :| 0.82
Back In The Game de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes 0.91
The Goldbergs :| :| :| 0.94
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.03
Super Fun Night :oops: 1.10
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.15
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.45
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.96

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The nine week Fall ratings averages for Revenge and Nashville are virtually identical, as well as the ratings for their last 2 weeks. Then why does the Cancellation Bear judge Revenge is likely to be renewed and Nashville is just a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation?

It's a matter of proximity to the 88 episodes that currently seems to be the minimum level for extra profitable stripped syndication. Syndication is possible with any number of episodes, but fewer than 88-100 means much less revenue per episode.

At the end of this season Revenge will require only one more full season to reach 88 episodes, making it likely that ABC will endure almost any ratings level to get that fourth season. Nashville will require two more seasons. That extra hurdle could separate the two shows' fates.

“Why is Super Fun Night certain to be canceled, yet sitting beside a bunch of certain to be renewed shows?”

Super Fun Night's position in the list is determined by its ratings average, which has yet to “catch up” to its recent ratings declines.

However, its prediction is based primarily on the fact that it didn’t receive a full season order. There are very isolated instances of Fall premiere rookie shows without full season orders being renewed for a second season, but it’s not even remotely the way to bet.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Rebooted

    @Theoacme

    Yes AFHV would still be on the air.

    @Orange

    I doubt Dancing will move to Sunday and OUAT will move to Wednesday.

  • reine

    Revenge wasn’t too great last year but it is now pretty good & is my second favorite show. My favorite is Nashville, love Connie especially with Deacon & can’t get enough of them.

  • Heiis

    I heard Revenge is doing well in international market.
    I read somewhere that they have wise demographic share with fans all the way from Asia.

  • Mina

    Revenge is back on track and it’s amazing. Truth is that ABC is not willing to do enough with it – moving it to sundays was an awful choice in the first place. Now they’re gonna move it to the 10pm timeslot, like REALLY ABC?

    The good thing is that Revenge is doing very well in other countries – they love it in South America, France and Italy.

  • jrh

    Love Revenge – but new writers need to be brought in…Nashville NOT my cup of tea.

  • Ray

    ABC 2014-2015:

    MONDAYS:
    8:00 — Dancing with the Stars
    10:00 – New Drama

    TUESDAYS:
    8:00 — Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
    9:00 — Resurrection / New Drama
    10:00 – Castle

    WEDNESDAYS:
    8:00 — The Middle
    8:30 — New Family Comedy / Suburgatory
    9:00 — Modern Family
    9:30 — New Family Comedy
    10:00 – Revenge

    THURSDAYS:
    8:00 — Grey’s Anatomy
    9:00 — New Drama
    10:00 – Scandal

    FRIDAYS:
    8:00 — Last Man Standing
    8:30 — New Comedy / The Goldbergs
    9:00 — Shark Tank
    10:00 – 20/20

    SUNDAYS:
    7:00 — America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8:00 — Once Upon a Time
    9:00 — New Drama
    10:00 – Nashville

    I know its not perfect, but with ABC’s mess, it would take a few years to get their schedule perfect. They need to establish a handful of hits before it can ever be perfected.

  • Craig

    while i like both shows, Nashville is superior: actually one of the best dramas on television.

  • Rebecca

    I hope Trophy Wife survives, along with some other shows I like. I just answered a survey from ABC about Trophy Wife, actually (gave it good reviews since it’s one of my favorite new shows) – did anyone else get a survey from them via email recently? It started asking about a group of shows at first (including How I Met Your Mother, oddly – the rest of them were ABC comedies) but then turned into a survey just about Trophy Wife.

  • Jake

    Here’s a more accurate stage I think the shows should be in:
    LIKELY RENEWAL: DWTS, Castle, Middle, Modern Family, Grey’s Anatomy, Scandel, Shark Tank, 20/20, & AFHV.
    ON THE BUBBLE: SHIELD, Last Man Standing, & Once…Time
    LIKELY TO BE CANCELLED: Goldbergs, Trophy Wife, Super Fun Night, Nashville, Once…Wonderland, Neighbors, Revenge & Betrayal.
    CANCELLED: Back in Game, Lucky 7.

  • Jake

    In fall of ’14 ABC needs new executive producers & new writers to reconstruct a bunch of new shows & improve on the ones still on ABC.
    THE FALL ABC SCHEDULE SHOULD LOOK LIKE THIS:
    MON.
    8pm DWTS
    10pm NEW DRAMA

    TUE.
    8pm SHIELD
    9pm Last Man Standing
    9:30 Goldbergs
    10pm Castle

    WED.
    8pm The Middle
    8:30 NEW COMEDY
    9pm Modern Family
    9:30 NEW COMEDY
    10pm NEW DRAMA

    THU.
    8pm Grey’s Anatomy
    9pm NEW DRAMA
    10pm Scandel

    FRI.
    8pm A.F.H.V.
    9pm Shark Tank
    10pm 20/20

    SUN.
    6pm Football Game
    9pm Once Upon a Time
    10pm NEW DRAMA

    Midseason Shows: Revenge, Nashville, Suburgatory, Bachelor, What Would U Do?, The Taste.
    Start out the season with several new dramas in the hopes at least a couple of them will be a huge hit.

  • Ankit Dasgupta

    Revenge Does Superb in International Markets ! Revenge will be Renewed For 4th Season, Well I Tried Watching Nashville ! Sorry Its Not My Cup of Tea !

  • Brandy

    @Jake,Once is still one of abcs higher rated shows and in its third full season , it’ll be renewed for syndication.Revenge & LMS are also in thier third full season so they too will be renewed for syndication.Sheild isn’t a bubble show either,it’s one of the four highest rated abc shows and the last couple original episodes it’s ratings have gone up.Its one of the few new fall show successes ,along with Blacklist & Sleepy Hollow.

  • Johan

    hah, nashville had the probably worst cliffhanger last episode when that billionare said to the young singer that he loved her, and the episode ended :)

  • Jeff

    First of all I highly doubt DWTS will move to sundays while it is good counter programming to football it may turn out to be a logistical nightmare for the show. currently in the fall 2 of the dwts judges film the original uk series in the fall on Saturdays. If ABC moves dwts to sundays in the fall and something unexpected happens like mechanical ir weather delays it may be tough for the show to find 2 replacement judges on such short notice and that might be costly for the show. Thats why I think ABC will keep DWTS sundays and build the rest of the schedule around that.

    For Fall 2014 this is what i suggest

    Sundays
    8:00 Once Upon a Time
    9:00 New Drama (Female Skewing)
    10:00 Revenge (final season)

    Mondays
    8:00 Dancing With the Stars
    10:00 New Drama (Procedural)

    Tuesdays
    8:00 Shield
    9:00 The Goldbergs
    9:30 New Comedy
    10:00 Castle

    ABC will mostly likely premiere comedies on wednesdays so keep the better rated of the current 2 and premiere a new one 9:30 the weaker comedy slot.

    Wednesday
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 New Comedy or suburgatory
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 New Comedy
    10:00 New Drama

    Thursday
    8:00 The Taste
    9:00 Greys Anatomy
    10:00 Scandal

    Fridays
    8:00 Last Man Standing
    8:30 New Multi Camera Comedy or Suburgatory (Use as syndication farm because fridays and single cameras dont work but if its suburgatorys final season for syndication purposes i can see this happening)
    9:00 Shark Tank
    10:00 20/20

  • Jeff

    i guess i was typing to fast i meant keep dwts mondays and build around it and abc will keep comedies on tuedays probably so keep the stronger one and premiere the new one at 9:30 which seems to be generally a weaker slot in hopes that a good comedy can take off there.

  • Fred

    ABC 2014/2015

    Sunday

    7:00- Wonderful World of Disney
    8:00- OUAT
    9:00- New drama
    10:00- Nashville

    The 7/00 PM slot can consist of various Disnet produced specials , adventures etc….2 hours when OUAT is on hiatus . So e of the Disney segments can be serialized and continue the following week. The options are endless. Disney used to have huge success with this. Worth a shot.

    Monday

    8:00- DWTS
    10:00- Castle

    Tuesday

    8:00- MAOS
    9:00- New male oriented show
    10:00- New Drama- would love to see BOP ressurected but highly unlikely at this point.

    Wednesday

    8:00 Middle
    8:30- Goldbergs-if canceled, something new, but this show seems like a perfect fit here.
    9:00- Modern Family
    9:30- Trophy Wife – same reason as above
    10:00-Revenge-back where it belongs

    Thursday

    8:00-Grey’s- should improve upon the myriad past disasters
    9:00-Scandal-possibly could become an even bigger monster hit
    10:00- new female skewing drama- should beneffit from strong lead in

    Friday

    8:00- Shark Tank- 2- hours if possible
    10:00- 20/20

    I rather see ABC get rid of expensive sitcoms here and capitalize on Shark Tanks amazing profits.
    If not possible AFHV .

  • Fred

    Cont….

    Forgot that LMS needs to get renewed for syndication purposes.
    8:30 after Middle in case Goldbergs get canceled.
    If Goldbergs is renewed , ABC will continue to air LMS on Friday with another sitcom at 8:30.

  • Fred

    Cont….

    I know it seems irresponsible to place adult oriented Grey’s and Scandal at 8:00 & 9:00 respectively . However it would almost certainly solve the Thurs 8:00 problem and uplift 9:00 slot. True the 10:00 slot will lose some viewers but If the right show follows Scandal it could be worth the risk.
    .

  • Networkman

    I really think both Revenge and Nashville will be renewed. ABC needs stability on Wednesday night. And I don’t feel they need to many new comedies. They should just work on building the new comedies they have. I also think DWTS will let Len go. They are moving towards a new judges panel so it should be no problems to move to Sunday.

    Sunday
    7pm AFHV
    8pm DWTS
    10pm Nashville

    Monday
    8pm Once Upon A Time
    9pm Castle
    10pm New Drama-Houdini

    Tuesday
    8pm New Drama-Untitled Soo Hugh Project
    9pm Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D
    10pm Resurrection

    Wednesday
    8pm The Middle
    8:30pm The Goldbergs
    9pm Modern Family
    9:30pm Suburgatory
    10pm Revenge

    Thursday
    8pm New Drama-Agent Carter
    9pm Grey’s Anatomy (Final Season)
    10pm Scandal

    Friday
    8pm Shark Tank
    9pm New Comedy-Kevin Hart Project
    9:30pm Last Man Standing
    10pm 20/20

  • Curtis

    (Central time)

    Sunday
    6 AFHV
    7 OUAT/NEW DRAMA
    8 Revenge/OUAT
    9 Scandal (just kidding, NEW DRAMA)/Revenge

    I’m not sure how cheap AFHV is to make, but it has been a staple of ABC for years now. Plus, it still brings in some ratings (I think?). Since Once upon a Time and Revenge have been on Sundays for the past two seasons, moving them to a new night would require TONS of promotion, which coupled with the promotion ABC will have to give its new shows next season, will be too much. Painful to say, they are probably better staying where they are. They might need a few new writers to breathe some new life into them, though. The new drama needs to be a female-oriented drama if it is at 9, or a family drama/spiritual show like 7th Heaven or Touched by an Angel if it is at 7. Something different from the scandalous, sexy image ABC has been promoting for women for a while.

    Monday
    7 DWTS
    9 Castle/NEW DRAMA

    Dancing with the Stars isn’t what it used to be, but moving it elsewhere would prove disastrous. It’s best to keep it there until ABC can think of a new reality show that they can put there when ratings get horrible. Or maybe it needs some retooling. Either way. I would keep Castle at 9, but seeing that it is coming in second to The Blacklist, either keep Castle there and hope that ratings will pick up for the show, or have a limited series drama to go against The Blacklist. I’m not really sure what genre this series could be, though.

    Tuesday
    7 AOS
    8 Castle/NEW DRAMA
    9 NEW DRAMA/Castle

    Truthfully, I think Agents of Shield is doing good, especially up against NCIS. However, I know ABC expected better. It would be nice to see Agents of Shield somewhere safer, but I don’t think it fits anywhere else but here. If ABC does decide to move Castle, it should move to Tuesdays. My best bet might be 9, so AOS and Castle can help the new drama. I think the new drama should be male-oriented, given that the two shows placed on that night have a male-oriented audience and a male protagonist, respectively. Action show, crime show, buddy cop show, or whatever males find great (although a lighthearted, but still serious buddy cop show sounds great).

    Wednesday
    7 The Middle
    7:30 The Goldbergs
    8 Modern Family
    8:30 Trophy Wife/NEW COMEDY
    9 NEW REALITY SHOW

    Wednesdays have Modern Family, so it’ll be alright. Just kidding, but I do believe The Goldbergs will be renewed, and that being before Modern Family would help them, if not make sense genre-wise (both are comedies about families). I would say Trophy Wife would get renewed, but I know that’s a stretch. A new comedy would be good, although I don’t know if ABC should do a family comedy due to the three before it being about families since that might be repetitive. 9 should definitely be reserved for a reality show. I know Nashville is doing okay against CSI repeats (not that much though), however, a new reality show could be put there to lighten the mood of Wednesdays (maybe?). If a new reality show is put there though, it will have to be one that ABC seriously commits to. One that is not ridiculous like Splash. Something on the same caliber as Dancing with the Stars. Maybe a slam poet contest? Just kidding (or am I?)

    Thursday
    7 Nashville/NEW DRAMA
    8 Grey’s Anatomy
    9 Scandal

    Grey’s Anatomy and Scandal do not need to be tinkered with, ABC, OKAY? However, 7 needs to have an established series. One that has some followers already. Or maybe it could be ABC’s new “Friday night death slot” since the series there always die. I would nominate Nashville for this slot if it gets renewed. It’s performance has not been the best on this network and putting it there couldn’t do worse than having Once upon a Time in Wonderland. If Nashville doesn’t survive this season, then Shonda Rhimes’ new series can take that place (although if her series is given an order, it will more than likely be on that night).

    Friday
    7 Last Man Standing
    7:30 Suburgatory
    8 Shark Tank
    9 20/20

    I don’t know much about the comedies (although I know Suburgatory is a weaker comedy than The Middle), but I think this could work on Fridays. Making a new comedy for Fridays would not be worth ABC’s money. Unless they wanted to take to rerunning Girl Meets World episodes from Disney Channel. Shark Tank and 20/20 don’t need tinkering either, ABC!

    Saturday
    College Football/Movie

    Enough said, although I do have a question: When ABC is airing a movie, why can’t it air a Disney animated movie every week? They only air one or two a year (I think?). Better yet, why doesn’t Disney Channel air these movies once a week? It could pull in ratings and even attract nostalgia fans. Plus, it’s introducing kids to an older generation of films. Sorry, didn’t mean to get preachy there.

    That’s what I think the schedule should be. If it is not up to snuff, sorry, but I’m not expert.

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