CW: 'Reign' & 'The Tomorrow People' Will Battle 'The 100' & 'Star-Crossed' For One Or Two Renewals

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 3rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) final season 0.27
Beauty And The Beast :cry: :cry: 0.40
The Carrie Diaries (F) de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes 0.40
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.54
Reign :| :| :| 0.90
The Tomorrow People :| :| :| 0.92
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.62

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The Cancellation Bear long ago took The Originals off his potential menu this season. The other two Fall premiere rookies Reign & The Tomorrow People will vie for one or two remaining rookie renewals with the mid-season shows The 100 & Star-Crossed.

Given the CW's recent history of premiering 3 rookie shows each Fall, in order to renew more than one more of the 2013-14 rookie group, either America's Next Top Model would need to air entirely in summer 2014, or the fourth season of Hart Of Dixie would need to premiere in mid-season. The bear doesn't view either of those alternatives as being out of the question, so two renewals from that group are conceivably possible, but until Spring, the bear's not likely to be able to predict which.

Interestingly, last season the CW announced its mid-season schedule on November 8.  By that standard, they're long overdue. That schedule is likely to contain some moves central to the bear's future dining plans.

Why is The Carrie Diaries defacto canceled?

Fall premiere shows that receive a 13 episode order (veteran or rookie), and no follow on episodes are canceled. (note, Life Unexpected). There will be no announcement, as always, except the fact that it's left off the schedule announced in May.

Why is Hart Of Dixie certain to be renewed?

With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Derek

    I wonder what the hold up is with the CW’s midseason plans? I’m interested to see what they do with The 100.

  • Darius

    Kinda OT but can I just say how impressed I am with TVD after five seasons? Fantastic to see that the quality has not declined through the years

  • moshane58

    Reign is so good. come on Nielsen box holders. A lot of people are crazy over this show. your rating system always ignores the CW and millions like their shows on their facebooks.

  • Jose Arribas

    I prefer TTP to Reign but Reign has the higher ratings and it’s proving to be a great fit with TVD which is odd but it works. The Flash pilot will probably be a better fit with Arrow next season.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    If one of the two new midseason shows gets “Cult”-like ratings, the bear’s decision will become much easier.

  • Lex

    @darious
    I wish I felt like you cause I despise the show direction now.

  • Adir

    I prefer Star-Crossed and The Tomorrow People !! I’m really wait to Star-Crossed !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i love it before it’s up! :D

  • paddii

    I have a feelin they will move HoD and BatB to fridays and air both new shows on monday. They could also move Reign to mondays and air The 100 after TVD. Or they move TTP to fridays and air The 100 after Arrow. As for Star Crossed I don’t think it’ll stand a chance. It’ll most probably end up mondays or fridays.

  • starship

    Hopefully Reign and The 100 will be the renewed ones (unless The 100 really sucks and the trailer is completely misleading), I like TTP but it’s 18-34 ratings are atrocious, so I’m being realistic here.

  • CKO

    I don’t think three new fall series is necessarily a given next year. That’s usually a necessity due to The CW being a disaster but this year none of the rookie series have straight out bombed so far. The CW doesn’t have much luck with midseason shows, but if one of them manages to achieve similar ratings to Reign and The Tomorrow People, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are three renewals and only two new fall series being launched next season.

  • Dan S

    The only 2 shows on CW I care about are safe Arrow & SPN. I don’t really care what happens to the rest of their shows at this point.

  • Shepherd

    i think a mid season for HOD is a very real possibility (a la Nikita), so I’m in the camp that thinks there will be two more freshman renewals (i addition to TO.

    I’ve said it before, but i think that Reign will be competing against Star Crossed for a spot, and TTP will be competing against t100 for a spot. I don’t see the CW renewing two tween girl shows (SC and Reign), nor do i see them going with two action/sci-fi shows and essentially abandoning the tween girl genre.

  • Brandy

    I hope Reign gets renewed.

  • Timmy G

    @Bill, wouldn’t it also be possible for a show to premiere after ANTM ends (Like Nikita this season)? Even if a full season renewal premiered in November that’d still be plenty of time to air 22 episodes.

    Under that judgement I wouldn’t be surprised to see 3 of the 5 freshman series renewed.

  • DuMont

    ‘The Carrie Diaries’ is not de facto cancelled. It has exceeded expectations for the Friday 8 pm timeslot (especially in W18-34s), and it is doing very well in multi-platform views. I was one of the few to predict a second season last May, and let it be recorded that based on season-to-dates so far, it has a third season coming soon.

  • JJA

    The two mid-season shows will likely premier in March, after the Olympics. Frankly, I don’t think either of them will do well.

    My guess is Reign will be renewed, while The Tomorrow People gets canceled.

    HOD & BATB will end-up on Friday by the spring, BUT I won’t be surprised if BOTH return next year. Frankly, I think at least one–TCD or BATB–will be back next year.

  • Kate

    Yeah I think they’ll keep 3 of the 5 for sure (unless something totally tanks). My guess at the moment would be TO, Reign, and TTP – Starcrossed doesn’t stand a chance. The one thing that could alter this is The 100. BUT I believe they could conceivably even keep a forth IF and only if that 4th is The 100.

    I only say this because they talked a lot about The 100 being set in a limited series format. If it does well in that format in the spring I think they could conceivably hold it and do a second spring limited series run of the show since that’s the way most limited series’s work (especially since it’s based on a novel). Just some thoughts.

  • Chris L

    @moshane58

    253,381 likes on Facebook’s Reign page. That’s not “millions”.

  • milo

    “‘The Carrie Diaries’ is not de facto cancelled.”

    Yes, it is.

    “It has exceeded expectations for the Friday 8 pm timeslot”

    No, it hasn’t.

  • DuMont

    Hey milo,

    Yes, it is.

    Shows are renewed based on how well they sell on Madison Avenue, and in The CW’s case, how well they connect through to W18-34s (their target demographic). Facts are friendly. W18-34 CPMs season-to-date:

    11th ‘Nikita’ $314.70 (costliest W18-34 buy on The CW)
    10th ‘Tomorrow People’ $282.19
    9th ‘Arrow’ $173.83
    8th ‘Beauty and the Beast’ $160.12
    7th ‘Hart of Dixie’ $144.43
    6th ‘The Carrie Diaries’ $140.69
    5th ‘Reign’ $138.41
    4th ‘ANTM’ $123.44
    3rd ‘Supernatural’ $109.20
    2nd ‘Originals’ $103.16
    1st ‘Vampire Diaries’ $99.49 (most efficient W18-34 buy on The CW)

    Don’t bother responding. You have nothing valuable to add but your facile keystroked opinions, and I place no value on them.

    DuMont

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