CW: 'Reign' & 'The Tomorrow People' Will Battle 'The 100' & 'Star-Crossed' For One Or Two Renewals

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 3rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) final season 0.27
Beauty And The Beast :cry: :cry: 0.40
The Carrie Diaries (F) de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes 0.40
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.54
Reign :| :| :| 0.90
The Tomorrow People :| :| :| 0.92
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.62

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The Cancellation Bear long ago took The Originals off his potential menu this season. The other two Fall premiere rookies Reign & The Tomorrow People will vie for one or two remaining rookie renewals with the mid-season shows The 100 & Star-Crossed.

Given the CW's recent history of premiering 3 rookie shows each Fall, in order to renew more than one more of the 2013-14 rookie group, either America's Next Top Model would need to air entirely in summer 2014, or the fourth season of Hart Of Dixie would need to premiere in mid-season. The bear doesn't view either of those alternatives as being out of the question, so two renewals from that group are conceivably possible, but until Spring, the bear's not likely to be able to predict which.

Interestingly, last season the CW announced its mid-season schedule on November 8.  By that standard, they're long overdue. That schedule is likely to contain some moves central to the bear's future dining plans.

Why is The Carrie Diaries defacto canceled?

Fall premiere shows that receive a 13 episode order (veteran or rookie), and no follow on episodes are canceled. (note, Life Unexpected). There will be no announcement, as always, except the fact that it's left off the schedule announced in May.

Why is Hart Of Dixie certain to be renewed?

With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • milo

    “Don’t bother responding. You have nothing valuable to add but your facile keystroked opinions, and I place no value on them.”

    Ooh, grumpy boy doesn’t want me to respond. Thank goodness your “value” is completely worthless.

    Interesting numbers, where did you get them, or what are they calculated from? But it is still de facto cancelled. Listing a bunch of numbers won’t make you any less wrong when there end up not being any more episodes.

  • Brandy

    I think BatB,CD,TTP,SC,the 100 all get cancelled .That’ll leave four spots once ANTM finishes in Nov for four new show.I don’t think it’ll be like last year ,renewing all but four shows and trying to cram 12 or more shows into 10 slots.

  • Bella Bellini

    Stephen and Astrid need to drop out of high school or graduate early. The high school setting and story lines are the weakest links on TTP. The 100 looks amazing. I hope it doesn’t disappoint

  • Charlie

    Tomorrow People is an okay show a little dull,boring at time’s tho if it got the axe i wouldn’t be disappointed. Same goes for beauty and the beast…

    As long as I’ve got the Vampire Diaries+The Originals I’m all good to go

    Hopefully The 100 is good!

  • Tom

    @ DuMont

    Where did you get your information? Ad Age’s latest annual survey of what 30-second commercials cost on all of the network not unexpectedly shows that ads on the CW’s programs are the least expensive. For example, a 30 second commercial on BATB costs $21,817. None of the other figures you cite correspond to that survey either.

  • Dave

    The CW needs to give The 100 the best promotional push as possible and the prime Wed 9/8c after ARROW is the best slot for it.

    Either TTP gets put on an extended hiatus(and a much needed created revamp) so The 100 could get the slot after Arrow. Or TTP moves to Mondays at 9pm with Star-Crossed leading the hour.

    If The CW stupidly decides to leave Dixie on Mondays at 8pm, then Star Crossed has to get the 9pm hour.

    Tues and Thur stays the same whiles BATB is certain to move to Fridays.

  • Machuran

    “If The CW stupidly decides to leave Dixie on Mondays at 8pm, then Star Crossed has to get the 9pm hour.”

    They should do something about that time slot considering it’s the time slot that needs the most help.

  • Joy

    As long as I have my Vampire Diaries and The Originals I’ll live…
    But I would like Hart of Dixie and Arrow to be renewed too. So I’m glad it looks good for them. Also Reign is such a good show… It would be a waste to cancel it!

  • Eelna

    Maybe cw can find space at 10 pm afer this season

  • Randy

    I was really hoping for a crazy Carrie Diaries fan in the comments… and low and behold, in comes DuMont!

  • Alan

    I just can’t wait to see TCD getting renewed again

  • Melanie

    @Eelna – No the CW will not be programming at 10PM next season. Good Lord – the network can barely support the 10 hours of primetime it has now. It won’t be expanding its programming hours.

  • Bored Now

    Just want to thank DuMont for giving me my daily dose of proof that crazy fans will drum up any facts and figures they believe will somehow prove their favorite show isn’t actually on the chopping block.

    In related news, The Carries Diaries is still defacto canceled.

    Have to say that I’d be quite willing to lose The Tomorrow People in favour of The 100 being a success for The CW. Reign’s not my kind of thing anyway and Star-Crossed doesn’t seem to be either, so I wouldn’t miss either of them, but as much as I’m enjoying TTP, The 100 has Eliza Taylor and Marie Avgeropoulos. Reason enough for it to have seven seasons, I’d say. ;)

  • Joseph

    If the Cancellation bear gets his way, all four of these shows would be whacked!

    He just wants to get rid of everything until TV is nothing more than 24/7 test patterns! :)

  • Fionn518

    I really like TTP and Reign, If I had to choose between the two id choose Reign, (I love Adelaide Kane).
    I think Robbie Amell is doing a great job on TTP as well.

    Star-crossed isnt for me at all so I hope the bear gets it.

    Im 50/50 on The 100, ill have to wait until I see it.

    But at the moment I want Reign and TTP to be renewed and The 100 and Star-Crossed to be cancelled. And to be honest, I dont think The 100 will beat Reign and TTP.

  • Timmy G

    @Eelna, there’s 0% chance of that, even if the CW were the number 1 network on TV the likelihood of that would still be probably less than 5%. If anything, if the network survives beyond 2016 the affiliates might consider giving them Sunday’s back, but even that is a 1% chance in reality.

  • Midnight

    I agree with CKO that three new freshman fall series for 2014 isn’t a given (just look at CBS this year). It is POSSIBLE that three of Reign, TTP, The 100, Star-Crossed, and BATB get renewed (and most likely those first three). I think only two of them will get renewed but if Reign and TTP hold up or improve through the season (meaning both stay 0.5 or higher), and the 100 is a success, I can see all three being renewed.

  • Tony JJ

    I think it’s very likely that Reign, Tomorrow People, & one of either The 100 or Star Crossed (most likely The 100) all get renewed. If they all do well, and whatever gets placed on Mondays do better than HOD & BATB, it could be likely that HOD could get a summer run or something for it’s final season. and BATB seems destined to be canceled, if CBS is making that much money from netflix and international money, then it too could get a summer run for two more seasons. I think The CW should start going for more summer presence. Hart of Dixie, Beauty and the Beast, Carrie Diaries, and even Next Top Model all could do decently well in the summer and they could still make the money they get from those shows online, international money, etc. all while still strengthening their fall season.

  • thesnowleopard

    And that headline right there, folks, is why The Tomorrow People and Reign are both toss-ups. You’ve got four shows (two of which haven’t even aired yet) competing for one, maybe two, slots next season. If either TTP or Reign or both were doing a 0.8 and above regularly, it wouldn’t be an issue because the CW’s schedule could stand a little stuffing with those kinds of shows, but they aren’t. In other words, the network is hoping the new shows will do better or that TTP or Reign at least won’t drop like stones in the spring (which most new CW shows do).

    @DuMont

    Maybe, maybe not. Not least because it’s never been proven, especially in the Pedowitz Era, that the CW does much of substance (let alone makes renewal decisions) with the W18-34 demo. And because TCD’s A18-49 demos are so miserable. Nothing against TCD. It seems like a cute little show. But it’s never really found an audience, unfortunately.

    For example, Arrow and Hart of Dixie both score higher CPMs than TCD, but neither is currently in any danger.

    When even Reign, which was supposed to have a 13-episode first season, gets a 22-episode order and TCD does not, that’s a big red flag. If anything, standards for a season-two show are even stricter than for season one because the network is effectively renewing a show for two seasons. Can you honestly say the network, with its current options, is going to do that for TCD, especially since a third and fourth season that are only 13 episodes long would negate the point of reaching syndication numbers?

  • Bored Now

    I do have to wonder why The CW didn’t premiere The 100 at the start of the season. It has a real Hunger Games vibe about it and could well have benefited from a little unofficial cross promotion. I can certainly see the show attracting the same kind of audience. Handled well enough and it could end up being the next Vampire Diaries level hit.

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