CW: 'Reign' & 'The Tomorrow People' Will Battle 'The 100' & 'Star-Crossed' For One Or Two Renewals

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 3rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) final season 0.27
Beauty And The Beast :cry: :cry: 0.40
The Carrie Diaries (F) de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes 0.40
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.54
Reign :| :| :| 0.90
The Tomorrow People :| :| :| 0.92
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.35
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.62

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The Cancellation Bear long ago took The Originals off his potential menu this season. The other two Fall premiere rookies Reign & The Tomorrow People will vie for one or two remaining rookie renewals with the mid-season shows The 100 & Star-Crossed.

Given the CW's recent history of premiering 3 rookie shows each Fall, in order to renew more than one more of the 2013-14 rookie group, either America's Next Top Model would need to air entirely in summer 2014, or the fourth season of Hart Of Dixie would need to premiere in mid-season. The bear doesn't view either of those alternatives as being out of the question, so two renewals from that group are conceivably possible, but until Spring, the bear's not likely to be able to predict which.

Interestingly, last season the CW announced its mid-season schedule on November 8.  By that standard, they're long overdue. That schedule is likely to contain some moves central to the bear's future dining plans.

Why is The Carrie Diaries defacto canceled?

Fall premiere shows that receive a 13 episode order (veteran or rookie), and no follow on episodes are canceled. (note, Life Unexpected). There will be no announcement, as always, except the fact that it's left off the schedule announced in May.

Why is Hart Of Dixie certain to be renewed?

With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Tom

    @ Brandy

    I didn’t say anything about the CW being stuck with Nikita by virtue of having renewed it after season two. If anything, it’s the network’s affiliates and viewers who were stuck. After season two, the producers switched the show’s format from serial to episodic in an effort to attract more viewers. So, even though this show should have been cancelled, the CW clearly chose to tinker with it purely for monetary reasons. As a result, there are now 73 episodes of Nikita to syndicate. That’s not as good as 88, but considerably better than 45.

    I understand that BATB is currently on the ratings ropes. And for good reason. But, the way the CW managed Nikita suggests that ratings simply are not as big a priority in the network’s programming decisions as with the big four networks. At least with programs that have accumulated more than a season’s worth of episodes. Remember, the CW was actively campaigning to keep the hideous LA Complex in production because it was generating good online revenue. So, unless BATB isn’t making money, I estimate that there’s still a better than even chance that the CW will stick with it for at least another season.

    BTW, Pedowitz has been fairly consistent in citing social media as one of the reasons for keeping some of the CW’s lower rated shows on the air. However, he well knows that the CW’s social media rankings have traditionally exceeded the network’s viewer ratings by a wide margin. That’s likely because most of the social media participants seem to fall outside the Nielsen adult demo.

  • Gloria

    Reign is so good. Please keep it on!

  • Prue

    I still think The Carrie Diaires could be renewed. They said they wanted to do shorter seasons. The fact that they only ordered 13 does not mean it is cancelled.

  • Duarte

    @Prue I’m only see TCD renew if CW need a veteran show to sparkle someone new next year. And I don´t think it will be TCD

  • Brandy

    TTP & Reign both 1.0 is Live 7 for the wek of Nov 18-24

  • Noel

    TCD will probably not be announced canceled until CW can see the ratings of The 100 and Star Crossed. If those two are succesful, then yeah they will probably send carrie to die and beauty and the beast to move to friday. Like it or not, internet wise beauty is more succesful.

  • Brandy

    @Noel, no its not.CD was renewed based on strong online viewing, BatB was renewed cause while it had soo ratings,they were still within CWs average at the time.Also, when announcing the full season pickups of the freshman shows,CW touted Reign & Carrie Diaries strong online views, said nothing of BatB online viewership (didn’t tout it in a press release last season either).CD was the second highest rated digital cw show after VD last season, now it’s VD,TO then CD ,Reign.look at deadline Nov 11. CW gives The Originals, ect Full season.

  • Brandy

    @Noel, if you meant BatB is more popular on social,media then you’re right.But being popular on sm dosent save a show-ask Secret Circle & Ringer.Being popular on sm dosent help CW make money.Also, with BatB very low ratings, it makes little ad revenue (lowest on CW) and it being popular on sm hasn’t done anything for its ratings last season or this season. BatB will move to fri Wheather or not CD is cancelled later or how SC & The 100 do just to make room once Nikita& CD finish thier seasons(CD season ends Jan 31).

  • Brandy

    TO & Ren made it to the final round for favorite new tv drama(along with Shield,Sleepy Hallow,Dracula).

  • Brandy

    Reign. For the PCAs

  • Brandy

    TO & Reign made it to the final of voting in the PCAs

  • Kate

    I doubt the PCAs will have any sort of impact on renewals or cancellations.

  • Brandy

    @Kate I know.Just though I’d post that in case anyone was curious.

  • justme

    They need to bring back The LA Complex! Who’s with me?

  • Georgia

    I am in love with the show Reign, I hope they keep it going. TVD and the Originals are getting booooooooooring…I am so over their plots and schemes.

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