FOX: If 'The X Factor' Is Canceled Could That Save 'Dads' Or 'Raising Hope'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 3rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


smiling_bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Raising Hope (F) :oops: 0.41
Dads :oops: 0.75
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.76
Brooklyn Nine-Nine :) :) :) :) 0.86
Glee renewed 0.95
Bob's Burgers renewed 0.98
American Dad final season on Fox 1.01
Bones (some F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
Almost Human :) :) :) :) 1.28
The Simpsons renewed 1.31
Sleepy Hollow renewed 1.46

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While the Cancellation Bear doesn't dabble in the prediction of unscripted show futures (tried it before, didn't work, lost interest in figuring out a method that would), there's at least some chance that this season will be the last for Fox's The X Factor.

Would those 3 open hours mean another chance at renewal for ratings losers like Dads and Raising Hope?

The bear guesses not.

Venturing into the wild guess portion of the post, were The X Factor canceled, the bear guesses that some combination of Gordon Ramsay reality, new reality and new scripted shows would soak up the time instead of holding over current ratings losers.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Dan S

    I’m afraid it’s curtains for RH. It’s essentially being burned off with double episodes on a low rated Fri. I feel much better for the prospects of B9-9 getting the post SB slot (GO SEAHAWKS) & being moved after NG midseason. Say goodbye to Dads & Mindy

  • Kimberly

    Cancel X-Factor and keep Mindy. Good riddance to Dads and Raising Hope. Nothing against them, really, but if it comes down to them and Mindy, I’d rather Mindy return.

    If Mindy is renewed and there’s room for another, keep RH, too.

  • PurpleDrazi

    Oh Bill, why must you tease us with that title.

    It’s curtains for RH I’m afraid. :-(

  • DenverDean

    RH should be moved to Tuesdays, not Glee, which is just running out the ill-conceived two-season renewal. Move that to Fridays.

  • starship

    The only sitcom certain to be renewed is New Girl, apart from it, B99 and Mindy have a chance, which will be much bigger if Surviving Jack flops and they cancel the X Factor, but even without all that they’re the only contenders for renewal. Raising Hope and Dads are ending without a doubt.

  • KC

    I love RH, I can deal with Mindy if it’s renewed. It’s not as bad as Dads.

    @DenverDean – Please stop with the Glee needs to move to Friday crap.

  • GregP

    My guess at the fall lineup on FOX:
    Sun- Animated
    Mon- Gotham, Almost Human
    Tues- 2 new Comedies with New Girl and B99
    Wed- Hieroglyph, Sleepy Hollow
    Thurs- Bones, Rake
    Fri- X Factor

  • Nancy

    As long as they don’t cancel Mindy I really don’t care.

  • nrc

    Bill did you use the thursday, friday and sunday final ratings?

  • Aron

    Xfactor won’t get cancelled. It’s not like fox is having a surplus of highly rated shows. A revamp made correctly can be better than a couple of DOA shows

  • Ted Craig

    Raising Hope had a good run. TMP will be back next year.

  • americangame

    If X-Factor get canceled, they’ll just make American Idol go back to having 2 seasons a year.

  • milo

    Glee’s average got spared by cutting off wednesday and not including the thanksgiving episode. Next time around will it be included, or are you going with the network’s argument that it’s a special and not a real episode?

  • Jeff (Canada)

    I think next season The X-Factor will be shed down to a one-night, 2-hour episode each week in the fall. That’ll free up one hour for either new scripted content or new reality, depending on whether they want/need a new drama/comedies or if they can find some reality show cheaper than X Factor.

  • TVDude

    If I had to guess, X-Factor will be mostly replaced with more reality TV. I guess there’s a chance, but I would say that it’s small, for Dad’s or Raising Hope.

  • tv#1

    I doubt Fox will completely cancel The X-Factor. It is more likely that they just make it a one night affair. As of right now I could see them going with a schedule like this for next Fall…

    Mon:
    New Drama
    Sleepy Hollow

    Tue:
    New Drama
    New Girl
    Brooklyn Nine-Nine

    Wed:
    New Drama
    Bones

    Thur:
    The X-Factor (2hrs)

    Fri:
    Kitchen Nightmares
    Glee

    Sun:
    The Simpsons
    Bob’s Burgers
    Family Guy
    Bordertown

  • milo

    I assume Almost Human will drop to three smileys, probably next week? I guess the overall average supports the current rating but based on the trend it seems likely to go from four to three to two, then actualy getting cancelled.

  • spinthesky

    My prediction is that they’ll shrink X Factor down to one 2 hour night a week, like Dancing With the Stars. I think Simon Cowell has too much of an influence on FOX for them to fully cancel the show, but there’s no denying the ratings loss this season. Plus, it’s super expensive to produce.

    But to be honest, the only show I truly care about being renewed is The Mindy Project!

  • starship

    @spinthesky

    Why on Earth would Simon have any influence at FOX. He sold them a highly expensive reality show that’s been doing way below expectations for 3 years in a row. Anyway, given that he’s already as good as confirmed to be back on the UK show next year, I think even he’s ready to jump ship and I don’t see the show surviving without him, he’s the only noteworthy judge on there atm. They can always offer him a place back on Idol to compensate for cancelling his X Factor paycheck…

  • Ram510

    At this point I think X Factor will be back probably in a reduced amount of time or on Fridays. Fox has too many other problems not to keep X Factor for at least 1 more season.

    With Mindy, Almost Human and Glee already failing and Dads, American Dad and Raising Hope not coming back next season Fox has quite a number of holes to fill so why not at least devote an hour or two to X Factor cause they already know that time will be used in the winter for AI so why put a scripted series in that time slot in the fall. Unless they go into next season with every intention to shuffle things around by the time AI returns.

    I guess they could always cancel X Factor and try a new reality series in its place. Time will tell, but at least Fox schedule is finally interesting

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