FOX: If 'The X Factor' Is Canceled Could That Save 'Dads' Or 'Raising Hope'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 3rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


smiling_bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Raising Hope (F) :oops: 0.41
Dads :oops: 0.75
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.76
Brooklyn Nine-Nine :) :) :) :) 0.86
Glee renewed 0.95
Bob's Burgers renewed 0.98
American Dad final season on Fox 1.01
Bones (some F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
Almost Human :) :) :) :) 1.28
The Simpsons renewed 1.31
Sleepy Hollow renewed 1.46

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While the Cancellation Bear doesn't dabble in the prediction of unscripted show futures (tried it before, didn't work, lost interest in figuring out a method that would), there's at least some chance that this season will be the last for Fox's The X Factor.

Would those 3 open hours mean another chance at renewal for ratings losers like Dads and Raising Hope?

The bear guesses not.

Venturing into the wild guess portion of the post, were The X Factor canceled, the bear guesses that some combination of Gordon Ramsay reality, new reality and new scripted shows would soak up the time instead of holding over current ratings losers.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Bradley

    I think Simon is getting tired of the US XFactor. I think they will give it one more chance with a single night a week format, but they really have some changes to make in order for it to be capable of improvement. They need more successful judges. Demi and Paulina have to go in favor of a Celine Dion and Garth Brroks type duo. People from diverse genres that have merit.

  • Alecia

    I don’t think any of Fox’s shows recover after baseball hiatus. It doesn’t seem to matter how they were doing pre baseball, they almost always come back lower and the cycle repeats each year. So even if the Xfactor gets cancelled, any new show is going to have similar problems.

  • Daley

    I can see XFactor going to a one night per week set up. I hope Mindy comes back, but Dads and go bye-bye anytime now.

  • Jon

    Raising is done so is dads. I actually think Mindy is not as dead as some people claim. Broo.klyn 99 could go either way. Scrap x factor and possibly move American idol to the fall. If not that just increas.e drama time to fill those slots

  • Jon

    @Bradley….there is zero chance either feline Dion or Garth brooks would attach their name to that sinking ship. Besides by late 2014 I fully expect Garth to come out of retirement for a major tour with his wife in toe.

  • ToXiX

    @americangame

    American Idol never had 2 seasons a year.

  • Jon

    Celine even. I hate autocorrect lol

  • Joe

    FOX, ABC and NBC have to up the ante and put on intelligent programing, such as you’ll find on cable television series. CBS has already drawn all the idiots to their network, so there are very few left for the other broadcast television networks.

  • Joseph

    “X-Factor U.S.A.” will be replaced by three more hour-long reality shows, although not necessarily in the same time periods.

    Two of those reality hours will likely end up on Fridays as Fox will likely abandon first-run scripted fare on that night after this season.

  • Robert Ford

    @Joe:
    I’m not sure what you mean by intelligent programming, but I’d argue that part of NBC’s problem is that they have tended to air programming which attracted a high income, high education demographic but pretty much nobody else. 30 Rock, Parks and Rec, and Community have all tended to skew to affluent and well-educated viewers. Several of their recent efforts such as 1600 Penn, The New Normal, and TMJFS also seemed targeted at that audience, even if they didn’t attract them.

    Speaking as someone who grew up around people in that demo (I don’t personally have a post-grad degree or make six figures, but I’m around a lot of people who do), white-collar types don’t seem to watch much TV, and very rarely watch it live. Most people I know in that demo tend to wait until the season is over, and watch a whole season on Netflix or Hulu.

    While I hate to say it (since I was raised among those kinds of people and therefore tend towards snobbish tastes as well), NBC really needs to air more programming that has mass appeal. For example they could take a lead from Fox, which this thread is about after all, and try animation. It seems like pretty much everybody watches the Simpsons, even if most people will still insist that it’s no longer funny.

    Fox actually seems to have the right idea in this regard. Not just animation. Early seasons of Glee and American Idol were also surprisingly popular among the white-collar types I know, and among the few shows they’d watch live.

  • Scandalfan

    They need to fire Demi and the 2 other chicks, they’re not doing a good job, that Paulina girl makes me cringe. Simon needs to get Janet Jackson, hire Paula Abdul back and go back to 3 Judges, the ratings were much better when Paula was on.

  • Pepper

    No way is AH getting renewed. 1.7 and dropping each week. It won’t be back

  • Matt

    I know it doesn’t necessarily mean that the X-factor is cancelled but some UK sources are reporting that Simon is in talks to return to the British version for next year.

  • CBSviewer

    FOX 2014-2015

    MONDAY
    8:00 – Sleepy Hollow
    9:00 – Gotham

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – Brooklyn Nine-Nine
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – New Girl
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Glee (Shortened Final Season) / American Idol
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA / American Idol

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – NEW DRAMA / American Idol
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Bones
    9:00 – NEW COMEDY
    9:30 – The Mindy Project

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Simpsons
    8:30 – Bob’s Burgers
    9:00 – Family Guy
    9:30 – NEW ANIMATION

    Toughts ?

  • Randi

    Why is no one watching Mindy Project?! The show is golden!

  • luka

    FOX 2014-2015

    MONDAY
    8:00 – The middle Man – NEW
    9:00 – Almost Human/Bones

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – Brooklyn Nine-Nine
    8:30 – Collage – NEW
    9:00 – New Girl
    9:30 – Damn your family – NEW

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Gotham – NEW
    9:00 – Sleepy Hollow
    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Hell’s Kitchen / American Idol 14
    9:00 – Hell’s Kitchen / American Idol 14

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Glee
    9:00 – Bob’s Burgers
    9:30 – The Mindy Project

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Simpsons
    8:30 – Family Guy
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA

  • StevenD

    If anything, I think that if the X factor is canceled it would save The Mindy Project

  • Ronak

    AH is still renewal predicted? It seems to be cratering for me (unsurprisingly, terrible show).

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “AH is still renewal predicted?”

    Written before last night’s results were known. Prediction change coming next week.

  • HeadlessHorseman

    @Bill
    Excluding the Sunday premiere, do you know what the index for it would be at?

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