FOX: If 'The X Factor' Is Canceled Could That Save 'Dads' Or 'Raising Hope'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 3rd, 2013

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


smiling_bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Raising Hope (F) :oops: 0.41
Dads :oops: 0.75
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.76
Brooklyn Nine-Nine :) :) :) :) 0.86
Glee renewed 0.95
Bob's Burgers renewed 0.98
American Dad final season on Fox 1.01
Bones (some F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.05
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
Almost Human :) :) :) :) 1.28
The Simpsons renewed 1.31
Sleepy Hollow renewed 1.46

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While the Cancellation Bear doesn't dabble in the prediction of unscripted show futures (tried it before, didn't work, lost interest in figuring out a method that would), there's at least some chance that this season will be the last for Fox's The X Factor.

Would those 3 open hours mean another chance at renewal for ratings losers like Dads and Raising Hope?

The bear guesses not.

Venturing into the wild guess portion of the post, were The X Factor canceled, the bear guesses that some combination of Gordon Ramsay reality, new reality and new scripted shows would soak up the time instead of holding over current ratings losers.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Greg

    THE X-FACTOR: Cancelled.
    ALMOST HUMAN: Cancelled.
    THE MINDY PROJECT: Renewed.

    The rest is pretty obvious.

    With an overload of scripted shows for this summer (24, Wayward Pines, Gang Related, Surviving Jack, Us & Them), I think FOX should only air MasterChef on summer and hold Hell’s Kitchen for fall. That will cover one hour out of the three from X Factor. And if they’re really desperate, they could just bring The Following back on fall.

  • lee

    id rather see dads or raising hope get another season over the mindy project. i just dont care which floppy haired numpty she finds love with and the rest of the cast are too 1D.

    Brooklyn 99 is my favourite new show and i hope it lasts for a long time. just a shame im in england so i cant help with any ratings.

  • Michael

    X Factor being gone=New Reality TV show and another Gordon Ramsey thriller or disaster (which ever way you want to ‘cook’ it :P)

    It means nothing to Dads and Raising Hope. Their fates are sealed. So long as B99 keep moving above them :)

  • joel

    An X Factor cancellation won’t affect any scripted shows. They’ll just find some other reality crap to replace it with.

  • Norman

    2014 Schedule

    Monday
    8 – NEW DRAMA
    9 – Sleepy Hallow

    Tuesday
    8 – Brooklyn 9-9
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9 – The New Girl
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY

    Wednesday
    8 – Bones
    9 – NEW LIMITED DRAMA

    Thursday
    8 – Glee
    9 – Second Half of Hell’s Kitchen

    Friday
    8 – Expanded Masterchef Jr.
    9 – New Drama Rerun

  • A

    I think the X Factor will be renewed, but it will shrink to one night. It’ll be two night for the auditions rounds, but come November it will settle to one night and something else will replace it in the second night.

  • Isobel

    Yeah I think they’ll put in Gotham and Hieroglyph rather than renew dads and raising hope

  • Big Daddy

    Losing X factor would be the smartest move fox made…..

  • Joe

    @Robert

    NBC’s programing you mention is cliquey and smarmy, not intelligent; and that’s why no one watches those shows. ABC is too preachy and every single one of their shows wants to form fit you into their version of how America should be (translation: too liberal). Fox is for slobs, and always has been. The few good shows they do offer (remember Keen Eddie?) get lost in the mix. But CBS has the American market cornered; with predictable fluff where no joke goes un-telegraphed and the bad guy never gets away. The other networks can’t compete with that, so that’s why they need to get that edge that cable has now, before even that overtakes them. And by edge, I mean creative, original and cerebral.

  • Patrick Gillease

    Cancel “The X Factor” and put Simon Cowell back on American Idol where he belongs! And make “Sleepy Hollow” a full 22 episodes next year. I don’t care about the rest of FOX! ;)

  • HeadlessHorseman

    @Patrick Gillease
    A full 22 episode season for Sleepy Hollow would not be a good idea. It’s meant to have only 13 episodes a season so it stays fresh and we don’t get a lot of filler.

  • Marcello

    @Milo…. It will be more likely 2 smileys for AH, (potentially 1) based on ratings report. (Going from 3.1 to 1.7/5)
    (9 million to 5.97 million).

  • blackrock1969

    Can’t believe I’m doing this now, but for fall 2014…

    Mon.
    8:00 Rake
    9:00 Sleepy Hollow/The Following

    Tue.
    8:00 Brooklyn Nine-Nine
    8:30 New comedy
    9:00 New Girl
    9:30 New comedy

    Wed.
    8:00 Kitchen Nightmares
    9:00 New drama

    Thu.
    8:00 New comedy
    8:30 New comedy
    9:00 Glee

    Fri.
    8:00 Bones
    9:00 New drama

    Sun.
    7:00 Football/The OT
    8:00 The Simpsons
    8:30 Bob’s Burgers
    9:00 Family Guy
    9:30 New animation

  • TWD is it

    So to the nut jobs at FOX. Sleepy Hollow would you not say has some appeal to the man genre? So why oh why would you put it up on Monday night against football? I feel that same for TWD and wonder if it’s ratings would soar even higher and some DVR #’s would drop, hence less angst on us 18-49 year old males skipping your mind numbing commercials. My goodness you pick weird nights to air men type shows. TWD dead during Sunday night football causes DVR, and SH vs MNF cause DVR. A duh and I dont sit in a corner office making 6 figures.

  • simsalabim

    x-factor: that demi person as a judge is a bad joke that should not come back this season. bad looking, untalented and a voicethat gives you ear cancer.

    next problem, it’s on fox – you can see that clearly when the public voting starts.

    another problem, after the desaster with the nightmare-team kardashian/lopez, they just canned one of them.

    ah what the hell, better watch the voice: cool judges, way more talent…and btw, x-factor uk kicks the us-version so badly in the butt.
    same with alle uk>us steals, the us version is ALWAYS worde than the original. life on mars, prime suspect, hells kitchen, kitchen nightmares…should i go on?

  • Jon

    @alecia…..the baseball hiatus excuse is just that an excuse. If anything baseball brings more eyeballs to those time slots. With that kind of logic one would expect some kind of boost when baseball ends. Seriously though the x factor has been dying for sometime. Baseball didn’t kill it. It killed itself.

  • Jon

    @simsalabim……how exactly did the us steal x factor? Simon cowell brought it over himself. Hells kitchen was brought over by ramsay which by the way the show started in new zealand. The others I don’t know much about but who cares. They weren’t worth watching.

  • Fox5

    Nooo! Don’t cancel The Mindy Project! This show is out loud funny…a 30 Rock-type show with the same caliber of talent.

  • Networkman

    With X-Factor being cancelled, I feel that would help the chances of Almost Human being renewed. I feel as if Rake will be a flop after American Idol.

    Sunday
    8pm The Simpsons (Final Season)
    8:30pm Bob’s Burgers
    9pm Family Guy
    9:30pm New Animation

    Monday
    8pm Gotham
    9pm Sleepy Hollow/The Following

    Tuesday
    8pm Glee
    9pm New Girl
    9:30pm New Comedy

    Wednesday
    8pm Brooklyn Nine-Nine
    8:30pm New Comedy or Surviving Jack
    9pm Gangland or New Drama

    Thursday
    8pm Masterchef Jr./American Idol
    9pm Hell’s Kitchen/American Idol

    Friday
    8pm Bones (Final Season)
    9pm Almost Human

  • CBSviewer

    8pm The Simpsons (Final Season)

    :roll:

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