Bubble Watch: A Look At Fox - Could 'Mindy,' 'Brooklyn Nine-Nine' and 'Dads' All Be Canceled?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

December 8th, 2013

brooklyn-nine-nine

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2014-15).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

As we get deeper into December and reruns and specials dominate, I thought I would take the opportunity to review why my predictions are what they are, on a network-by-network basis. First up, Fox. But before that…

A quick comment on stability

One of the most frequent comments I see is “Why do you think Show X is so doomed? Its ratings are stable!”

I feel stability is an overrated concept. Sure, a show that keeps dropping is worrisome, but flat ratings aren’t the biggest factor. Case in point: the two most stable shows this season are… Hart Of Dixie and Beauty & The Beast, which have recorded a 0.4 and a 0.3, respectively, every single airing this season. I sincerely doubt the other networks are trying to acquire those shows for their stability.

Moreover, in some cases, stability is a bad thing. If a show is up against repeats, you should expect it to grow that week. A show that is flat suggests it has no larger possible audience. For example, this week Brooklyn Nine-Nine went up against reruns of both Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. AND NCIS, and was up just a single tenth from the last time it went up against first-run episodes from both (two weeks ago). Let me reiterate: 5+ rating points were up for grabs, and Brooklyn Nine-Nine managed to get 0.1 of it (~2%)! If Brooklyn Nine-Nine can’t grow in that situation, when can it grow?

The Fox Fall Summary

Bones

Pro: Settling into Friday nicely, solid spackle option as Fox continues to try new dramas.

Con: The show is old enough where actors may want to leave and costs rise to keep them.

Odds of renewal: 85%

Almost Human

Con: The show has already dropped below Bones’ lowest Monday rating. Turns out the episodes have aired out of order, with episodes 2 and 4 still unscheduled, and episode 3 buried in mid-December (and probably explains why the premiere was delayed two weeks, as they rushed to get better launch episodes finished). Fox shuffled their schedule this week to get Almost Human away from the Sleepy Hollow finale and The Following premiere. Gang Related is waiting in the wings, and Almost Human has enough episodes ordered as is to allow Gang Related to launch after the Olympics. Forget a renewal, I’m not sure Almost Human even gets a backorder. (Not coincidentally, I’ve moved Almost Human to “Cancellation Predicted” this week.)

Odds of renewal: 10%

Dads

Pro: The Seth MacFarlane name.

Con: Tied for the worst rated Sunday-Thursday show on Fox. Fox just cut three episodes from its order. Fox also appeased MacFarlane by ordering yet another animated show from him.

Odds of renewal: 1%

Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Pro: The most critically acclaimed and highest rated of the three Tuesday options.

Con: My judgment has never been about which of the three was the best rated, but if any of the three were worth Fox’s time to try another year of. Mired in the mid 1s (again, see the above bit on stability – is there any more audience left for the show?), if it doesn’t improve after New Girl (and it could drop going against The Voice full-time), what will the numbers look like next year? Not owned by Fox.

Odds of renewal: 45% (until we see post-New Girl numbers)

New Girl

Pro: Needs a 4th season for syndication.

Odds of renewal: 100%

The Mindy Project

Pro: Brooklyn Nine-Nine could do worse in its timeslot. Fox might want to keep a Friday spackle option.

Con:  Tied for the worst rated Sunday-Thursday show on Fox. Not owned by Fox.

Odds of renewal: 30% (until we see Brooklyn Nine-Nine’s post-New Girl numbers)

Raising Hope

Con: Numbers are terrible, even for Friday. Hits 88 episodes with this season’s order.

Odds of renewal: 1%

Family Guy

Pro: Ratings are fine. While older, no public chatter about excessive cast raises.

Odds of renewal: 95%

Sleepy Hollow, Glee, The Simpsons, Bob’s Burgers

Already Renewed

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This week’s news:

NBC renewed The Blacklist. While the renewal should surprise no one, a cynic would wonder why NBC would announce their only freshman renewal in December. (I’m not a cynic, and think there’s a fair chance Chicago PD is renewed. I’m not sure I put anything else upcoming above “a slight chance”.)

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

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Show Network Status
Back In The Game ABC Canceled
Lucky 7 ABC Canceled
How I Met Your Mother CBS Final Season
We Are Men CBS Canceled
Nikita CW Final Season
American Dad Fox Moving to TBS
Ironside NBC Canceled
Welcome To The Family NBC Canceled
tvbythenumbers.com
Betrayal ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Goldbergs ABC Cancellation Predicted
Nashville ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Neighbors ABC Cancellation Predicted
Once Upon A Time in Wonderland ABC Cancellation Predicted
Super Fun Night ABC Cancellation Predicted
Trophy Wife ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Good Wife CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hostages CBS Cancellation Predicted
The Mentalist CBS Cancellation Predicted
Mom CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty & The Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
The Carrie Diaries CW Cancellation Predicted
Almost Human Fox Cancellation Predicted
Brooklyn Nine-Nine Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dads Fox Cancellation Predicted
The Mindy Project Fox Cancellation Predicted
Raising Hope Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dracula NBC Cancellation Predicted
The Michael J. Fox Show NBC Cancellation Predicted
Parenthood NBC Cancellation Predicted
Revolution NBC Cancellation Predicted
Sean Saves The World NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
The Crazy Ones CBS On The Bubble
Two and a Half Men CBS On The Bubble
Reign CW On The Bubble
The Tomorrow People CW On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ABC Renewal Predicted
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
The Middle ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewal Predicted
Blue Bloods CBS Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
CSI CBS Renewal Predicted
Elementary CBS Renewal Predicted
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewal Predicted
Mike & Molly CBS Renewal Predicted
The Millers CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS: LA CBS Renewal Predicted
Person Of Interest CBS Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewal Predicted
Arrow CW Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
The Originals CW Renewal Predicted
Supernatural CW Renewal Predicted
The Vampire Diaries CW Renewal Predicted
Bones Fox Renewal Predicted
Family Guy Fox Renewal Predicted
The New Girl Fox Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Sleepy Hollow Fox Renewed
The Blacklist NBC Renewed

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  • Missy

    The Good Wife is one of the best-written shows on TV. I look forward to each and every episode, and the present arc is extremely exciting. Can’t wait to see what happens next. My only concern for the show is that the insufferable Amazing Race plays havoc with The Good Wife’s schedule. The characters — all of them — are fantastic and the portrayal by the cast is absolutely outstanding!!! Based on the foregoing, I strongly disagree with your prediction that this show will be cancelled.

  • queeneeuq

    The Good Wife is getting renewed and Elementary gets canccelled.

    It’s so easy

  • Danny

    Not so easy. Elementary is not going to be cancelled.

  • CBSviewer

    The Good Wife is getting renewed and Elementary gets canccelled.

    The contrary is more likely but I think both Shows get Renewed.

  • CrimTV

    Wish NBC and CW would hurry up and announce their mid-season schedules already!

  • queeneeuq

    If Intelligence premieres well, Elementary is gone. The Good Wife is just too unique compared to the cop dramas which occupy 99% of CBS

  • Duarte

    I can imagina this good solution to FOX

    Sunday
    The Simpsons
    Bob’s Burgers
    Family Guy
    Brooklyn Nine-Nine

    Monday
    NEW DRAMA
    Sleepy Hollow (strong to get 22 ep. season)

    Tuesday
    NEW COMEDY
    NEW COMEDY
    New Girl
    The Mindy Project

    Wednesday
    American Idol (fall season)
    Glee 8pm / Rake 9pm (midseason)

    Thursday
    American Idol / The Following
    NEW DRAMA

    Friday
    Bones
    Something

    1 comedy to midseason (to sparkle the one who fails)
    1 drama to midseason (?)

  • Charmed

    What’s taking so long with the Family Guy renewal?

  • ToXiX

    @CrimTV
    And CBS ?

  • Brad

    Daley,

    Fox owes nothing to Glee when it’s barely pulling above a 1. Barely.

  • CrimTV

    @ToXiX

    CBS have sort of announced a bit of their mid-season (Intelligence) but yes they need to announce theirs as well!

    @queeneeuq

    CBS won’t renew The Good Wife based on it’s “uniqueness”

  • nrc

    Elementary is two seasons away from syndication. It’s a cop show so it will probably do well in syndication. Besides it’s owned by CBS.
    They’re not going to cancel it over a show that has already been syndicated. I think both TGW and Elementary will be renewed but if they have to pick then TGW is the one getting axed not Elementary.

  • Aria

    I think they’ll renew B99 and New Girl & cancel Dads, Mindy and Raising Hope.. (with with the latest news we can say dads is already cancelled.)

    In dramas, they’ll renew Bones IMO.. They’re doing pretty good job on Fridays. & as for Almost Human: I believe this week Almost Human will get higher ratings ’cause there’s nothing new on tv except the voice.. But after seeing that FOX schedule, I can say that AH is kinda dead.. I mean 2 new episodes on Jan 6 and 13 and then 2 week break and then another new episode.. Those kind of things can’t be a good think for a new show. So I believe they’ll cancel it but who knows..

  • nrc

    What do you think about Rake? Renewed or canceled? It seems like a good show to me but i don’t really know what to expect from a midseason show airing after AI since it dropped a lot last year.

  • rainbowtwizzler

    Welp, I’m prepared to order Almost Human from the Warner Bros. Vault in a few weeks. How ’bout the rest of you?

  • queeneeuq

    @nrc

    The key words are two seasons away. That’s not a very good sign since CBS has so many renewals.

  • MARTY

    queeneeug elementary has better ratings and cbs does not cancel its 2nd yr. dramas when they own them, goodwife and mentalist are both gone

  • MARTY

    the last 2 2nd year dramas cbs cancelled, shark non cbs owned only 38 episodes, Jericho cbs owned 29 episodes, both would have needed more than 2yrs for syndication. elementary cbs owned will have 48 at the end of this yr., easy call elementary renewed

  • Joe

    Do you even look at the ratings? Tons of your predictions make no sense. “if Brooklyn Nine Nine’s ratings don’t improve when it gets moved after New Girl..”, you realize that they’re only seperated by about two tenths of a point right now, correct?

  • Matt M.

    Surviving Jack will be the only new comedy that FOX renews. It is guaranteed to do AT LEAST low 2’s in the demo, as it has gotten the post-Idol results show slot, which will most definitely help it. Idol is all but guaranteed to rebound hugely this year from last year’s disaster.

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