CW: In A Rare Up Year, Why Would The CW Renew "Beauty & The Beast"?

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

December 10th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

laughing_bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-December 8, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita (F) final season 0.32
Beauty And The Beast :cry: :cry: 0.41
The Carrie Diaries (F) de facto canceled, airing remaining episodes 0.41
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.54
Reign :| :| :| 0.89
The Tomorrow People :| :| :| 0.92
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.60

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To those who'll claim the Cancellation Bear has run out of CW topics just before the holiday lull begins, the bear pleads "guilty as charged"!

The CW is up season to season among adults 18-49. Not only is that a milestone for them, it's a big deal for any US broadcast network.

Yet, even with that success, some desperate fans can still find ways to justify the renewal of a show like Beauty & The Beast which is averaging just a 0.30 adults 18-49 rating this Fall, vs. a 0.68 adults 18-49 rating last Fall, down 56%.

Desperation, it's the mother of invention! And Fan Excuse Bingo!

Why is The Carrie Diaries defacto canceled?

Fall premiere shows that receive a 13 episode order (veteran or rookie), and no follow on episodes are canceled (see Life Unexpected). There will be no announcement, as always, except the fact that it's left off the 2014-15 schedule announced in May.

Why is Hart Of Dixie certain to be renewed?

With three seasons complete, the CW syndication gods will demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. Maybe it'll be a short one like Nikita's, or maybe not. The bear doesn't get into predicting episode orders.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Krystaaal

    @Richard that’s what I thought about the Carrie Diarie too, so I’ll believe this de facto cancelled thing when I see it!

  • Melanie

    @Ed B “The show may not do as well live but it does really well online, better than a lot of CW shows. So for that reason it should be renewed.
    Also the show is on a very competitive night and it’s very steady and has a weak lead-in. I’m sure if it was on another night it would perform better.”

    I’m curious what you mean by ‘does well online and better than a lot of CW shows’? If you’re talking about actual streaming– source, please? If you’re talking social media, its SPN, Arrow TVD & Originals on the Get Glue chart every week.

    Its ‘weak’ lead-in still does better and BATB’s DVR numbers are terrible. It barely gets to a .5 or .6 with the 7 day bump. The middle of the road shows on the CW (TTP & Reign) start out better than that.

    I’ve always like KK’s performances, she deserves a better vehicle than BATB.

  • david

    Superhero i mean shows like Arrow and i bet the Flash wil work to seeing how the episode of Arrow did last week with Berry Allen in it got a 1.2 rating.

  • starship

    I don’t think the CW will completely abandon their “real world” shows, HoD will probably get some number of eps for a fourth season, but they need at least one more. With Carrie certain to be cancelled, they need to pick up a new show about non-supernatural/non-sci-fi things. They have a few of those in development, but honestly other than The Revengers I don’t see any one of them working out. Then again, if they renew Reign that will cover the non-supernatural bases (even though it’s historical fiction). On the other hand their fantasy shows once again sound a lot more promising, so I think they might as well order some more of those (other than Flash which is about 99.99% certain to be picked up at this point). I don’t think there’s a issue with them relying entirely on genre shows, as long as they are strong concepts and good executions, i.e. more Reign/Arrow/Originals and less BATB/Tomorrow People (although they seem to be slowly fixing the latter). After next season though, it might be time for them to start developing some strong non-supernatural dramedies, maybe even a new teen non-supernatural high school show (GG and 90210 used to do quite well for the network in their first seasons after all).

  • Brandy

    @Ed B source of BatB doing well online.?Cause CW said VD ,TO are thier top digital shows and CD,Reign are also particularly strong online too.
    @David yes, but as I said a network needs more than one type of programming and to target more than one audience to be sucsessful.What will happen when the vampire craze goes away?Or The Avengers popularity fades?Fads/trends come and go.Even though they’re doing well, VD,Arrow,SPN,TO will fade out ,just like GG,90210.Genre sghows have limiting appeal,just like the girly shows, and for the most part ,witha few /couple exceptions, genre shows don’t do well. Richard, who posted Ealier,even said cw shouldn’t go all genre.A network needs variety and diversity in programming to appeal to different audiences and as many viewers s possible.

  • Brandy

    I don’t think 4 out of 13 shows being girly shows should be complained about or is that much/that bad(I’m not VD or BatB or Star-Crossed cause they’re genre shows despite being female skewing romance heavy shows.Im only counting CD,Reign,HoD,ANTM.)I’m also not Seed,Whose Line,Famous in 12,Masters of Illusion either as they wont Likley air til summer.
    Personally, Id renew TO,Arrow,SPN,VD,Reign,HoD, and pick up SPN spinoff,Flash,Painted Girls,The Prefectionsits.

  • Dan

    People think that BATB could be renewed because CW has never cancelled a drama especially one they fully own after 2 full seasons. Yet this season may be the cancellation of a lot of 2 full seasoned shows (The Neighbors, The Mindy Project, Revolution, BATB)

    BATB will be cancelled, CW should have never renewed it. 9010 would have gotten the same garbage numbers for its short “Gossip Girl” like final season and they wouldnt of had to put up with it for a full year. Yet CW felt that BATB’s post VD numbers were good enough to renew it. They aren’t.

    The Carrie Diaries will be cancelled too. Its not yet and that short 13 episode season was planned from the start (as a midseasons 13 episodes are) so its not Defacto cancelled. But CW renewed it for spackled and thats what they got.

    Hart of Dixie will be renewed and moved to fridays next season along with ANTM in the fall. And for TTP and Reign. Both essentially have the same numbers. TVD averages 1.3 with Reign averaging 0.7. Arrow averages 1.0 with TTP getting a 0.6. CW could easily axe both but they will keep 1 likely. Whichever one they keep will be moved to another night next season. Fall ratings dont matter for those shows. Spring ratings do.

  • Eu

    when will start the 100?

  • Mark Wood

    Ed

    Even if B&tB did strong online streaming, that isn’t going to mean much in real revenue. One online viewer isn’t going to equal 1 live viewer. With no real system yet active to measure the online viewer ad buyers will never pay equal rates.

    Until they can get full income and demographic detail online ads are going to pay far less.

    I mean with demo and income data it takes roughly 4 Viewers from 3 day DVR data to equal one live viewer. Now just imagine how many online viewers it’s going to take to equal one live viewer.

    One day, when demos get added and income get added, online will be a real force, but the networks aren’t there yet.

    Now of you had two shows doing roughly the same in live views, DVR views, ect and one had larger online legal streaming, that would push it for that program. But that situation isn’t something that is happening now.

  • Pat

    2013-14 CW Schedule Predictions
    Monday:
    8:00 – Supernatural
    9:00 – Reign, Tomorrow People or one of the 2 midseason shows
    Tuesday:
    8:00 – The Originals
    9:00 – New Drama
    Wednesday:
    8:00 – Arrow
    9:00 – New Drama
    Thursday:
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – New Drama
    Friday:
    8:00 – Hart of Dixie
    9:00 – Reign, Tomorrow People or One of the 2 dramas from midseason

  • Boiler

    The only problem with HoD is the horrendous time slot it is in. It performed well on Tuesday last year. I would like to see it as second hour on Tuesday. Or actually may work on Friday

  • Dan

    I’m surprised the CW hasn’t announced its midseason plans yet. I’m sure BATB will move to Fridays but I wonder when Star Crossed or The 100 will premiere.

  • Adir

    They was shuold renew 90210 last year !! bitches cw!

  • thesnowleopard

    @Brandy

    The “girly” shows actually didn’t do all that well. When you’re bucking the general network trend by having a rise with new shows that are horror, superhero or scifi, and posting great numbers on bad nights that you haven’t had in years, it’s a given you took a wrong turn with your previous lineup. And the CW’s previous lineup was heavily skewed toward the “girly.” Looks like women didn’t want to watch that crap, after all.

    Besides, they renewed The Carrie Diaries and look how that turned out. They’ve still got Hart of Dixie. And some of their current shows have female leads. It’s hardly as though they gave up on women and started courting the NASCAR crowd. They just stopped churning out teen nighttime soaps.

  • Timmy G

    @Pat, Supernatural’s tone is dark and therefore will probably never air at 8 PM. Plus, Tuesday’s at 9 use to be the CW death slot. Supernatural should stay there and if anything the Originals should move.

    For people wondering about the mid-season schedule, my guess is both shows will probably premiere after the olympics. That still gives the network enough time to air 13 episodes back to back through May. Plus, I’m sure Pedowitz is still debating whether or not to move TTP or Reign. Point being I doubt we’ll hear about The 100 or Star Crossed until January since we haven’t already. If we do, it’d be a pleasant surprise.

  • Patrick Ausgewahlt

    I finally agree with the de facto cancelled on the Carrie Diaries. I premiered about a month late, so it should have been given a month after the other shows for a backorder. It has now been long enough that the Carrie Diaries is defacto cancelled. I can still see a 10% possibility it gets a short Nikita type third season in case a new show next year really bombs early and they need a bridge between November sweeps and January.

  • Tom

    @ Mark

    They’re selling BATB in 20 countries. Combined with online sales and projected revenue from even a short syndication, the CW has plenty of incentive to keep producing BATB. It’s undeniable that the CW doesn’t consider ratings to be a priority. If it did, BATB and Hart would already be history. The CW may throw in the towel on shows like Emily Owens and Cult that bomb immediately and don’t get too far into production. However, I don’t believe that their business model provides for slamming the door on any show with multiple episodes and a positive cash flow. Hopefully, I’m wrong; but there’s a reason @ Mr.Gorman hasn’t designated BATB as certain to be cancelled.

  • RyanCanada

    I love BATB I think it’s so well done

  • JJA

    THIS is what I’m predicting the CW will do come March:

    Mon 8–Hart of Dixie
    Mon 9–Star Crossed (new)

    Tue 8–The Originals
    Tue 9–Supernatural

    Wed 8–Arrow
    Wed 9–The Tomorrow People

    Thu 8–The Vampire Diaries
    Thu 9–Reign

    Fri 8–The 100 (new)
    Fri 9–Beauty & The Beast (new night)

    Keep in mind, the CW hardly made any changes last year. TCD and Cult premiered in the slots vacated by Gossip Girl and Emily Owens. Likewise, I think the only change the CW will make is to move BATB (its lowest rated show) to Friday @ 9 for burn-off.

    The 100 will NOT be DOA on Friday nights. Keep in mind, shows like Battlestar Galactica, Haven, Grimm, Supernatural and Smallville do well on Friday nights.

  • C.S.Strowbridge

    The CW can only make three new shows per year, because that’s all they have in their budget. So unless the midseason replacement shows are surprise hits, Reign and The Tomorrow People are safe. Hell, The Carrie Diaries has a better chance of coming back than those two shows have of being cancelled.

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