NBC: Is 'Dracula' This Season's 'Hannibal'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

December 10th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-December 8, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.68
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.71
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.73
The Michael J. Fox Show :oops: 0.78
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
Revolution :| :| :| 0.92
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.93
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
The Blacklist renewed 1.93

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One of the Cancellation Bear's two big prediction misses* last season, Hannibal could do no better than a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating for its final four episodes during the Spring of 2013, about 70% of NBC's Spring scripted ratings average. The bear gave it just a 30% chance of renewal in the final reckoning, and yet it was renewed.

How'd that happen? Best guess is that the international production made the cost to NBC so low that it could take a flyer on a second season, even with those woeful ratings.

Could the same happen to Dracula?

Perhaps, but sadly impossible for the bear to guess accurately. Unlike Hannibal, in addition to the non-US production companies, Dracula is co-produced by NBC Universal. Does that mean it's not the low cost deal that Hannibal was? Or does that mean NBC is more likely to hang onto it given disappointing ratings? Sadly, those things are hidden from the bear, and the rest of the public.

Was last Friday's 1.1 rating a fluke? or a sign that the bear needs to change his Dracula prediction? We won't know anytime soon, the next new Dracula episode airs on January 3.

*the other being The Carrie Diaries.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Dan S

    I can’t imagine any scenario that NBC wants to hang onto the very low rated Dracula. Hannibal was in a more difficult slot on Thur & may have potential to grow when it returns next year most likely on Fri. Never can tell what the Peacock network is thinking after cutting loose the well watched but low rated Harry’s Law.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    With Crossbones also on the horizon though, it might make the decision tougher for NBC. They might want to wait to see how Crossbones does until they make a decision on Dracula.

  • Eve

    The Blacklist is already renewed.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Meant to add this to my post. Here’s Dracula’s final 18-49 ratings for its first 6 episodes:

    1.8
    1.3
    0.9
    0.9
    0.9
    1.1

    Has it found its floor at 0.9?

  • Kim

    Wasn’t the Blacklist already renewed?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The Blacklist is already renewed.”

    Spreadsheet error!

    Now fixed.

  • Laura

    Another issue with “Dracula,” from what I read, is the unpredictable behavior of Jonathan Rhys Meyers. Apparently, it was difficult enough to get him to film the 10 episodes for this season without going off the rails. I imagine that will definitely be a factor in the decision over whether or not to continue.

  • Douglas from Brazil

    Despite low ratings,Hannibal is a well written show and got critics buzzing.Dracula had mixed reviews.

  • gerry

    hannibal had other things going for it outside of its ratings. while ratings are obviously the most important thing, critical love and a more competitive timeslot might be taken into consideration. dracula can’t boast any of those factors.

  • StevenD

    There is one scenario where I see Dracula coming back. Next winter, NBC will need bridge programming between the Voice cycles on Monday and Tuesday, and this could be a cheap solution instead of ordering another Deception. They also have Crossbones coming up, which has equal potential that Dracula started with.

  • ludotv

    Sure ratings for Hannibal were weak for the last eps but that is the only similarity. Dracula is an embarrassingly ridiculous show in terms of quality, production values and acting (that accent please) while Hannibal was critically (and rightly) acclaimed in addition to being cheaper as a co-production. I was gladly surprised Hannibal got a 2nd season but there is no hope in hell Dracula gets one… surely…

  • THE OLD MAN

    I’d wait for more data to decide the fate for Dracula.

  • merlin

    Bring back Siberia!!!!

  • Douglas from Brazil

    @merlin,

    Sibera will be back in February 7 8-11pm.

  • Scott M

    Next fall NBC has 15 hours to fill (not counting Sunday as they’ll have football). The Voice takes 3, Biggest Loser 1, Dateline 1. Blacklist, Grimm, L&O, and Chicago Fire take up 4, so that leaves 6 hours to fill.

    Are they gonna premiere 6 new hours, with no old shows as backup? Obviously that’s ridiculous, so I would guess they need a minimum of 3 hours (either to premiere in the fall, or used as backup). Right now there’s only 3.5 hours of possibilities (Revolution, Parks & Rec, Parenthood, and Dracula). Of course there will be more choices this spring. But for right now Revolution is their best performer of that group.

    Going into this year I felt pretty certain that Revolution would get cancelled at the end of the year. Now I feel pretty much the opposite and would be suprised if it got cancelled.

  • Roy

    We just don’t know how cheap Dracula is. Considering its timeslot, I just don’t believe NBC is going to do that much better. I mean that Dracula as awful as it is doing is literally tied for first place at 10pm Friday.

    I think the Rhys Myers issue is more to the point

  • Scott M

    @Douglas from Brazil

    You got a link for the Siberia news?

  • Five

    @Roy

    100% agreed.

  • a p garcia

    I like Dracula, but its not consistent from Rhys Myers to the writers. With the revival of series, I would like to see Buffy: The Vampire Slayer get the treatment.

  • Hardline_Pro

    @Douglas from Brazil – How do you know?

    Also the difference between Dracula and Hannibal is that Hannibal is a good show; Dracula isn’t.

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