NBC: Is 'Dracula' This Season's 'Hannibal'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

December 10th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-December 8, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.68
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.71
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.73
The Michael J. Fox Show :oops: 0.78
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
Revolution :| :| :| 0.92
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.93
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
The Blacklist renewed 1.93

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One of the Cancellation Bear's two big prediction misses* last season, Hannibal could do no better than a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating for its final four episodes during the Spring of 2013, about 70% of NBC's Spring scripted ratings average. The bear gave it just a 30% chance of renewal in the final reckoning, and yet it was renewed.

How'd that happen? Best guess is that the international production made the cost to NBC so low that it could take a flyer on a second season, even with those woeful ratings.

Could the same happen to Dracula?

Perhaps, but sadly impossible for the bear to guess accurately. Unlike Hannibal, in addition to the non-US production companies, Dracula is co-produced by NBC Universal. Does that mean it's not the low cost deal that Hannibal was? Or does that mean NBC is more likely to hang onto it given disappointing ratings? Sadly, those things are hidden from the bear, and the rest of the public.

Was last Friday's 1.1 rating a fluke? or a sign that the bear needs to change his Dracula prediction? We won't know anytime soon, the next new Dracula episode airs on January 3.

*the other being The Carrie Diaries.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Fake Me Out

    NBC Fridays 2014-2015

    8pm Grimm
    9pm Dracula
    10pm Wolfman
    11pm me doing a happy dance

    ymmv

  • MARTY

    fake me out along with cbs, abc, fox, and the cw, lol

  • Dan

    “Is Dracula this seasons Hannibal”

    No but Hannibal is this seasons Touch and Smash.

    And Dracula is this seasons Betrayal, Hostages, and OUAT Wonderland.

  • Simon

    @Bill Gorman
    Do you feel that Revolution stands a 50-50 chance of renewal this seasons?

    Glad all the ‘Revolution is this year’s SMASH’ talk is done and dusted given how steady the show is. Aren’t most of Dracula’s sets CGI al a Sacntuary? Thus cutting the cost of the show?

  • DamC

    FALL 2014:

    MONDAY
    8- The Voice
    10- NEW DRAMA

    TUESDAY
    8- The Voice
    9- NEW COMEDY*
    9:30- NEW COMEDY*
    10- Chicago Fire

    *or either About a Boy or Growing Up Fisher depending on their success

    WEDNESDAY
    8- Maya Rudolph Variety Show
    9- NEW DRAMA
    10- Law and Order: SVU*

    *or Chicago PD if it’s a success

    THURSDAY
    8- Parenthood (final season, 10 episodes)/ The Biggest Loser (in january)
    9- The Blacklist
    10- NEW DRAMA*

    *or SVU if Chicago PD takes the Wednesday spot

    FRIDAY
    8- Revolution
    9- Grimm
    10- Dateline

    SUNDAY (Spring)
    8- NEW COMEDY
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9- A.D. (The Bible sequel)
    10- NEW DRAMA

    + Parks and Recreation would be renewed for a 13-episode final season as a mid-season replacement

  • Pat

    2014-15 NBC Schedule Prediction:
    Sunday:
    Sunday Night Football
    Monday:
    8:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – The Blacklist
    Tuesday:
    8:00 – The Voice
    9:00 – New Comedy
    9:30 – New Comedy
    10:00 – Chicago Fire
    Wednesday:
    8:00 – The Biggest Loser
    9:00 – Law and Order: Special Victims Unit
    10:00 – New Drama
    Thursday:
    8:00 – Parks and Recreation
    8:30 – New Comedy
    9:00 – About a Boy
    9:30 – New Comedy
    10:00 – Parenthood
    Friday:
    8:00 – Grimm
    9:00 – New Drama
    10:00 – 20/20

  • Dan

    @Simon – Personally I think Revolution is 50-50 but again its fall ratings dont matter, spring ratings do. One one hand its steady and has slightly worse numbers than SVU. on the other hand its expensive and NBC may not want to invest 2 more seasons in it. Its basically 50-50.

  • Noel

    Somebody mentioned Dracula being all CGI, lol I really doubt that because it looks too real, its not like once upon a time that the backgrounds literally say Im CGI. Anyway, I do wish Dracula gets renewed somehow, it is slowly be lming something truly great.

  • MediaMan23

    Having watched network television for about fifty years (literally), and worked on the edges of the business the failure of Dracula remains a mystery to me. As is its dreadful time slot – why NBC?
    Unlike others I find it lavish, engrossing, nicely acted and just plain fun. Its charismatic star, volatile of course, fits the role perfectly.
    And I find Dracula a far better viewing experience than the rancid Hannibal.

  • Tracy

    This show is GREAT!! I am not sure why all of the negative comments and press but it is gaining a HUGE following and is on the upswing. I hope it sticks around.

  • PurpleDrazi

    Aren’t most of Dracula’s sets CGI al a Sacntuary? Thus cutting the cost of the show?

    CGI isn’t exactly cheap either. Although, it often makes a show look cheap if not done well.

  • CCV

    Well, since Hannibal was a cable-worthy drama with high critical acclaim, the comparison is far from perfect.

  • Montecore

    Shows like Dracula and Hannibal would have done much better if they chose writers with talent and they were on a channel like HBO instead of nbc. Dracula will probably be renewed since 95% of today’s TV audience has probably never even read the book Dracula or even seen the movie Bram Stoker’s Dracula.

    I wasn’t sure if I would like Blacklist but the writing is great and the characters are interesting.

  • DTravel

    Bill Gorman, always blaming the spreadsheet! :P

  • Why Watch

    I’m not sure you’ll do any better than a 1.0 Friday at 1000 with any other show.

  • Jim

    Fun fact for the commenters: nobody cares about your fantasy schedules. Nobody.

  • brian

    To answer the original question, no. Hannibal has more love from critics and earned its ratings from a tougher timeslot than Dracula. Plus, nobody has raised questions on the professionality of its star Mads Mikklesen.

    Having said that, the future of Dracula would depend a lot on how the spring dramas do on NBC. The more of them that succeed, the more likely Dracula will be caught out at sunrise. If most or all of them flop, Dracula might live to see season 2, probably as a mid-season replacement series.

  • KJ Styles

    I knew Hannibal would be renewed, especially when no decision was made on it before (or even after) the NBC upfronts for this year were presented to the public.

    As for Dracula, I’d say it’s fate lies on how well Crossbones and/or the returning Hannibal does. I think Parenthood’s fate probably lies in all of that too.

  • HeadlessHorseman

    I’m really looking forward to Crossbones. Given that it’ll be airing in the spring, NBC will probably be a bit more lenient with it. I doubt Dracula is coming back with those ratings. If Crossbones and Dracula average about the same, then NBC would likely choose Crossbones since it’ll be airing in the spring.

  • Refrain

    @Simon

    CG via Green/Blue Screen can be quite expensive, the cheap thing is just a myth. Anyway I can see Revolution going up a level on here to the more likely be renewed status if it maintains its current viewership in the back half of the season.

    The tossup status to me implies there’s a degree of uncertainty if the show can maintain its current numbers.

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