NBC: Is 'Dracula' This Season's 'Hannibal'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

December 10th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-December 8, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.68
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.71
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.73
The Michael J. Fox Show :oops: 0.78
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
Revolution :| :| :| 0.92
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.93
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
The Blacklist renewed 1.93

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One of the Cancellation Bear's two big prediction misses* last season, Hannibal could do no better than a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating for its final four episodes during the Spring of 2013, about 70% of NBC's Spring scripted ratings average. The bear gave it just a 30% chance of renewal in the final reckoning, and yet it was renewed.

How'd that happen? Best guess is that the international production made the cost to NBC so low that it could take a flyer on a second season, even with those woeful ratings.

Could the same happen to Dracula?

Perhaps, but sadly impossible for the bear to guess accurately. Unlike Hannibal, in addition to the non-US production companies, Dracula is co-produced by NBC Universal. Does that mean it's not the low cost deal that Hannibal was? Or does that mean NBC is more likely to hang onto it given disappointing ratings? Sadly, those things are hidden from the bear, and the rest of the public.

Was last Friday's 1.1 rating a fluke? or a sign that the bear needs to change his Dracula prediction? We won't know anytime soon, the next new Dracula episode airs on January 3.

*the other being The Carrie Diaries.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • cimmer

    I’d like to think so. It was up a bit so it may be a wait and see after the break. I don’t know how well Hannibal will do when it comes back either. I’m worried it won’t come back strong which may help Dracula.

  • Aly

    Hannibal also hit a very desirable demo of affluent, well educated viewers. The audience wasn’t big, but it was one specific advertisers coveted. It also has pretty solid internet buzz, even during its extended break. Really it did better than it had any business to with NBC’s minimal advertising (not including the brilliant Tumblr.)

  • Lukes

    But Hannibal was praised by critics, had a very strong lead in Mikkelsen and a very committed public and fanbase. Dracula has none of them. Perhaps they are not the most important factors a network includes in the analysis of renewal or cancellation, but perhaps they can play a role for a toss-up show.

  • Anthony

    Dracula is too day time soap drama and not enough supernatural. I don’t mind that they take the time period and the customs of those times serios for authenticity, but I wanna see Dracula fight some hunters and see more nightly escapades of him feeding on those who cross his path as Brad Pitt said in Interview With A Vampire. Also Professor Van Helsing doesn’t have a very large role thus far. Too much brinkmanship with The Order as well. Let’s ramp up the killing and shift the drama into high gear! That’s what I was expecting when I heard about this show

  • k:Alex

    Dracula could be the best new dark drama this fall, but it’s not dark enough, too much drama talk and the story isn’t that interesting.

    Beside those things, the lead in of Dracula is around 1.5 from a equivalent genre show,
    Hannibal got most of it’s run a lead in from comedies with a fan base (The Office and one time P&R), and after The Office Final only a lead in around 0.5/6 in summer.
    Beside that, ABC had sport with a 10.6 rating, little bit more as Blue Bloods…

    And NBC like the fact it’s critically acclaimed with almost no old viewers.
    If they don’t want the show, their is a good chance a cable channel will buy the show. Because cable and well educated people (most of them have more money -> pay tv) are a perfect combination.

    I hope most of the people who watch the show online (this summer) will watch season 2 on TV. But we will see, I only think Hannibal is much stronger as Dracula

    .
    .
    No new fantasy schedule, only a renew prediction

    Renew chance
    – The Voice (100%)
    – The Biggest loser (100%)
    – The Sing-Off (70%, if it stay’s above 1.8, it could be a January show)
    – The Apprentice (70%)
    – American Dream Builders (30%)

    ———————–
    – The Blacklist (100%)
    – Chicago Fire (100%)
    – Grimm (100%)
    – Law&Order (99%, only if the cast doesn’t want a new season)

    .
    – Chicago PD (70%)
    – About a Boy (70%, ok reviews and a voice lead in)
    – Community (60%, final season renew)
    – Parks&rec (60%, final season renew)

    .
    – Parenthood (55%, Universal show)
    – Revolution (50%, Warner show)
    – Hannibal (45%, it’s a cheap show with only 13 ep)
    – Growing Up Fisher (45%, I have no idea, but I expect a cancel)

    .
    – Believe (40%)
    – Crisis (40%)
    – Crossbones (35%, I hope it’s good, but I expect a big disappointment)

    .
    – Dracula (10%)
    – The MJ Fox Show (5%)
    – Sean Saves the World (2%, I still think, if you edit the show a bit, it could be a ‘NBC hit’, because the writing is good and it is the best new multicam NBC had in almost 9 years)

    Only ‘The Night Shift’ and ‘Undateble’ aren’t in the list because I have no idea where or when those shows will air.

  • Evelyn Downs

    What is wrong with NCBC, you continuously cancel shows we like. To name a few Harry’s Law, Chuck. I have sent you emails and stated I would not watch NBC again, however I gave NBC another chance you actually had a couple of good shows on I enjoy and look forward to each week; Dracula and The Black List. I know I’m not the only one. I don’t know where NBC get’s their information but smart if NBC checked a few other places. If these shows are canceled I know I will not give NBC another chance; I don’t care what you have, other stations are out there and so is Hulu, Nexflix, Amazons, and let’s don’t forget reading a good book.

  • Synthetic

    Anyone notice the synthetics work like Star Trek’s red shirts? Anytime you see one, you know it’s gonne get destroyed. I am a huge JJ fan – Love Fringe, Lost, Person of Interest, Alias, What About Brian, and like Revolution, but this future procedural is a little slow moving and too CSI for me. Surprised since Wyman’s Fringe is one of my favorite series of all time.

  • Ultima

    @Evelyn Downs
    I have sent you emails and stated I would not watch NBC again, however I gave NBC another chance

    If these shows are canceled I know I will not give NBC another chance

    “No, this time I really mean it!”

    I don’t care what you have, other stations are out there and so is Hulu

    “This is the last straw NBC, if you cancel a show I like, I’ll just watch your content on another service which your parent company partially owns!”

    Yeah, I can’t imagine why they’re not listening…

  • Sandi Zanotti

    Please keep Dracula going on in 2014.This is a show for us people who enjoy the dark storyline. I’m so sick of reality t v.and shows like CSI types.I can’t even watch them at this point. Dracula lets you escape from the hard core of street crime cases.Obviously Rhys-Meyers can be a workable actor.The Tudors was amazing and he was amazing. My daughter is 21 and I’m 49 we both look forward to Friday just to see it.We were both crushed that we have to wait until January to see what’s next.We both are pulling for Dracula, please don’t leave us high and dry!!!!!!!!!!

  • MARTY

    dann florek leaves svu, does this mean anything toward renewal

  • Refrain

    @Synthetic
    @and like Revolution, but this future procedural is a little slow moving and too CSI for me

    I thought the tighter plotlines actually benefit the show. Even the limited filming locations too.

  • MeAndMrsJones

    I’d watch all of season one and a season two of Agent of Shield just to see Dracula cancelled. LOL

  • Chris J

    NBC mid-season:

    Sunday
    8:00-American Dream Builders
    9:00-Parenthood
    10:00-Revolution

    Monday
    8:00-The Voice
    10:00-The Blacklist

    Tuesday
    8:00-The Voice
    9:00-About A Boy
    9:30-Growing Up Fisher
    10:00-Chicago Fire

    Wednesday
    8:00-The Night Shift
    9:00-Law & Order:SVU
    10:00-Chicago PD

    Thursday
    8:00-Community
    8:30-Parks & Rec
    9:00-Believe
    10:00-Crisis

    Friday
    8:00-Michael J Fox
    8:30-Sean Saves The World
    9:00-Grimm
    10:00-Crossbones

    Bubble shows move to Sunday, new “Olympic-boosted” shows are scheduled during the week.

  • Chris J

    NBC next season(2014/2015):

    Monday
    8:00-The Voice
    10:00-New Drama

    Tuesday
    8:00-The Voice
    9:00-New Comedy
    9:30-About A Boy
    10:00-New Drama

    Wednesday
    8:00- Maya Rudolph Variety Show (or returning drama)
    9:00-Chicago Fire
    10:00-Chicago PD

    Thursday
    8:00-The Biggest Loser/The Space Race
    9:00-The Blacklist
    10:00-Law and Order SVU

    Friday
    8:00-Dateline
    9:00-Grimm
    10:00-Babylon Fields (NEW)/Wolfman (NEW)

    Only one hour of comedy, and very few new shows to promote.

  • StevenD

    Idea for Midseason:
    Monday-Wednesday stay the way it is currently planned

    Sunday: 8-9 MJF/SSTW
    9-10 The Night Shift
    10-11 Parenthood
    Thursday: 8-9: Community/Parks
    9-10 Crisis
    10-11 Believe
    Friday: 8-9 American Dream Builder
    9-10 Grimm
    10-11 Crossbones

    This would move promising dramas to Thursday, and have Crisis away from Scandal/Elementary and aim for POI audience from last year. Crisis is said to be NBC’s second best screened drama behind The Blacklist this season, so I think it will get priority over Believe. Friday has some high rated reality tv shows, so American dream builders could try to capture on this or be lost, but still have the same shot as it would on Sunday. People have been saying to move Greys to Sunday for a while, so why not try The Night Shift there, and other Thursday programming around it.

    Any thoughts?

  • BigBrotherFan

    Meyers had his day in the lime light about six years ago and he wasted it on booze and beating his GF (according to reports). Screw him! I don’t bother with shows that employ men who beat up women! Go back to Ireland or wherever the heck it is he is from you washed up boozed up euro***** monster!

    In all honesty, He’s yesterdays news. He had a nice career height with the first few seasons of the Tutors but now his career is becoming increasingly irrelevant. Nobody paid to see his movies and it looks like people won’t tune in on TV. Karma.

    Show will be canceled.

  • Chris

    Man, I’m hoping that Hannibal is this season’s Hannibal, because I doubt its ratings will be any higher when it comes back in the Spring but I still want it to get renewed again.

    It’s genuinely shocking that a show so well-made could end up on a network like NBC, of all places.

    (Dracula, on the other hand, is *exactly* the kind of show you’d expect would end up on a network like NBC.)

  • Chris J

    @StevenD

    I love your ideas.

    As far as Thursdays I think both Believe and Crisis have the potential to do better than the current lineup. Both shows seem to have been well reviewed by critics that have seen the pilots, so if NBC can generate enough buzz during Olympic promotion both shows should have a chance to get pretty big ratings at least for the pilot episodes. If people like what they see they’ll hang around.

    I think putting American Dream Builder on Friday is another good idea. NBC will probably be wining Fridays in the Spring if they put a strong reality at 8pm.

    At this point it may be better for NBC to cut its losses with Michael J Fox and Sean Saves the World, and move both shows to Saturday burnoff.

    Then on Sunday NBC can either air all dramas or maybe place the Maya Rudolph show at 8pm. NBC may also want to air the Maya Rudolph show on Wednesday 8pm if it is well received at its Olympic debut.

  • Simon

    I know it’s a little off-topic but the 71st Golden Globe Nominations list Jamse Spader for DRAMA ACTOR!!!

  • iSayso

    Hannibal killed it every week while Dracula just sucks.

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